Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Perth
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Perth card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 261-109-1 ~ Dog Picks 40-30-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Elisha Ellison +180
Bet of the Week Record: 21-9-1 +2228
DFS Lock of the Week: Jimmy Crute - 23-5
Fanduel Captain: Ulberg/Sutherland
Carlos Ulberg (12-1-0) v. Dominick Reyes (15-4-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 4 decisions)
- Patient kickboxer with strong fundamentals and composure
- Uses jab, leg kicks, and range control to systematically break opponents
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15 wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive left hand with real knockout power
- Durability concerns linger from past knockout losses
DFS Perspective: Ulberg's discipline and range striking make him the safer DFS option with a solid floor and possible late finish. Reyes carries big-time knockout upside but remains volatile given his chin history. The preferred play is Ulberg for consistency, with Reyes as a GPP dart for those chasing a ceiling outcome.
UFC Perth Pick: Ulberg
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Jimmy Crute (13-4-2) v. Ivan Erslan (14-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Aggressive light heavyweight with strong boxing and ground skills
- Dangerous early with finishing instincts, both standing and on the mat
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Powerful striker with experience in regional promotions
- Unproven against top UFC-level competition and hittable when pressured
DFS Perspective: Crute is set up well for an early finish here. His pace, power, and grappling give him multiple avenues to overwhelm Erslan quickly. Erslan has knockout power of his own, but the jump in competition is steep. Crute is one of the stronger DFS plays on the slate with big finishing upside.
UFC Perth Pick: Crute
Jack Jenkins (13-4-0) v. Ramon Taveras (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Technical striker with strong leg kicks and pace
- Durable and composed, experienced against higher-level opposition
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive finisher with dangerous power in early rounds
- Has missed weight in two of the last four fights and is facing a big step up in competition
DFS Perspective: Jenkins is the more reliable option with steady striking and proven durability. Taveras has knockout upside, but weight issues and lack of experience at this level are major concerns. Jenkins is the preferred DFS play with a strong chance to outwork Taveras, while Taveras is a risky GPP dart tied to early power.
UFC Perth Pick: Jenkins
Jake Matthews (22-7-0) v. Neil Magny (30-13-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with sharp boxing and grappling balance
- Inconsistent but dangerous when confident and aggressive
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 80" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 30 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 17 decisions)
- Veteran gatekeeper with elite length and cardio
- Durable and excels at slowing fights down with clinch and pressure
DFS Perspective: This is a great measuring-stick fight for Matthews. If he's sharp mentally and physically, his speed and power can overwhelm Magny and earn him a statement win. Magny is durable and can extend fights, but his low finishing rate makes him a limited DFS play. Matthews is the side to target with upside for a breakout performance, while Magny is more of a low-ceiling hedge.
UFC Perth Pick: Matthews
Louie Sutherland (10-3-0) v. Justin Tafa (7-5-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (8 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Explosive heavyweight with big knockout power
- Still green defensively and untested at higher levels
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7 wins (7 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-handed brawler with proven one-punch power
- Limited grappling and cardio but thrives in short, violent fights
DFS Perspective: This is a classic heavyweight slugfest where someone is almost certainly getting knocked out. Tafa has the experience edge and proven UFC power, while Sutherland brings youth and upside but with far less seasoning. Both are viable GPP plays, but Sutherland is the preferred DFS side for his big knockout ability and higher likelihood of connecting early.
UFC Perth Pick: Sutherland
Tom Nolan (9-1-0) v. Charlie Campbell (9-2-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 4 decisions)
- Tall, rangy lightweight with sharp kickboxing skills
- Uses length well but is still developing defensively
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (6 KO/TKO, 3 decisions)
- Explosive striker with power in both hands
- Aggressive style but can leave openings for counters
DFS Perspective: This is a close, competitive fight with finishing potential on both sides. Nolan's length and kickboxing give him a slight edge, especially if he maintains distance and stays composed. Campbell is live with his power, making this a volatile GPP target. My lean is Nolan by decision or late finish, but both sides are playable for upside.
UFC Perth Pick: Nolan
Navajo Stirling (7-0-0) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 decision)
- Heavy-handed striker with legitimate knockout power
- Hungry prospect looking to prove himself on the UFC stage
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded finisher with striking and grappling tools
- Inconsistent and coming off a shaky performance that raised concerns
DFS Perspective: Bellato has more experience and multiple paths to finish, but after his last showing, it's tough to fully trust him. Stirling's power makes him a solid DFS play, particularly if he connects clean. For DFS, Stirling offers strong leverage and upside, making him the preferred side in this spot.
UFC Perth Pick: Stirling
Andre Petroski (13-4-0) v. Cam Rowston (12-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13 wins (4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Strong wrestler with heavy top control and ground-and-pound
- Can fade late if forced into extended striking exchanges
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (4 KO/TKO, 7 submission, 1 decisions)
- Striker with knockout power and aggressive style
- Defensively vulnerable against pressure and takedowns
DFS Perspective: Petroski's wrestling and submission game give him a clear path to rack up points if he secures early takedowns. Rowston's power and submission history make him live as a GPP play, but his lack of proven grappling defense is a concern. Petroski is the preferred DFS side with a strong chance to score well through control and a potential finish.
UFC Perth Pick: Petroski
Jonathan Micallef (8-1-0) v. Oban Elliott (12-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8 wins (2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Solid striker with sharp boxing and finishing instincts
- Improving takedown defense and composure under pressure
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with steady wrestling and grind-heavy style
- Can be predictable if opponents neutralize his takedowns
DFS Perspective: If Micallef can stuff Elliott's takedowns, his striking edge should carry him to victory. Elliott's game is heavily dependent on control, which lowers his ceiling if he can't ground the fight. Micallef is the preferred DFS side here with knockout upside and the tools to spoil Elliott's pressure game.
UFC Perth Pick: Micallef
Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) v. Rolando Bedoya (14-4-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Durable veteran with high-volume striking and gritty style
- Can be hittable but thrives in back-and-forth wars
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded fighter with sharp combinations and sneaky grappling
- Durable and composed, good at mixing striking with pressure
DFS Perspective: This projects as a high-paced fight with plenty of scoring potential. Mullarkey's volume and willingness to trade make him a steady DFS play, though his defensive lapses leave him vulnerable. Bedoya is the sharper technician and could capitalize on Mullarkey's hittable nature, giving him sneaky finishing upside. Both sides are viable, but lean goes to Bedoya as the more efficient fighter.
UFC Perth Pick: Bedoya
Colby Thicknesse (7-1-0) v. Josias Musasa (8-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Sharp striker with clean technique and finishing instincts
- Still developing defensively, but brings a high-paced style
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8 wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling balance
- Can be hittable in exchanges but durable and aggressive
DFS Perspective: This is a close matchup with scoring upside on both sides. Thicknesse's crisp striking gives him the technical edge, while Musasa's durability and pressure make him live in extended exchanges. Slight lean toward Thicknesse for his cleaner striking and finishing ability, but both are viable GPP plays in a fight likely to deliver action.
UFC Perth Pick: Thicknesse
Luana Carolina (11-4-0) v. Michelle Motague (6-0-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Long, rangy striker with solid volume and movement
- Struggles with strong grapplers and can be controlled on the mat
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (6 submissions)
- Strong grappler with a suffocating top game and finishing instincts
- Still developing her striking but relentless once she closes distance
DFS Perspective: This matchup sets up well for Montague, whose grappling advantage is the clearest path to a finish. Carolina has the length and striking to be competitive early, but her takedown defense is a major liability. Montague is the preferred DFS side with high control and submission upside, while Carolina is a contrarian dart if she can keep it standing.
UFC Perth Pick: Montague
Brando Pericic (4-1-0) v. Elisha Ellison (5-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 4 wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Aggressive striker who pushes forward looking for big shots
- Raw defensively and leaves openings when pressured
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5 wins (4 KO/TKO, 1 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with the ability to mix striking and grappling
- Composed under fire and capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses
DFS Perspective: Ellison is the side with more paths to victory. Pericic's aggression makes this dangerous early, but his defensive flaws set the stage for Ellison to take over and find a finish. Ellison's balance of striking and grappling makes him the preferred DFS play, with strong upside if he capitalizes on Pericic's mistakes.
UFC Perth Pick: Ellison
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Loma Lookboonmee (10-3-0) v. Alexia Thainara (12-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with a balanced striking and grappling arsenal
- Aggressive and durable, capable of pushing a high pace
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 8 decisions)
- Technical Muay Thai striker with excellent clinch control
- Low finishing rate and can be outmuscled by stronger grapplers
DFS Perspective: While Lookboonmee's technique and experience are proven, Thainara's physicality, aggression, and ability to mix things up make her a live underdog. She has the tools to make this gritty and take over with pressure. For DFS, Thainara is the more appealing play with upset and finishing upside, while Loma's decision-heavy style limits her ceiling.
UFC Perth Pick: Thainara
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
