Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vancouver
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vancouver card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 287-120-1 ~ Dog Picks 44-33-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Kyle Nelson +100
Bet of the Week Record: 21-12-1 +1928
DFS Lock of the Week: Manon Fiorot - 26-5
Fanduel Captain: de Ridder/Dober
Reinier de Ridder (21-2-0) v. Brendan Allen (25-7-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21 wins (4 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 3 decisions)
- World-class grappler with dominant control and submission transitions
- Highly skilled on the mat but can struggle if forced into extended striking exchanges
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25 wins (5 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Aggressive, well-rounded finisher with improved boxing and top pressure
- Excellent submission threat but occasionally overextends in scrambles
DFS Perspective: Both are elite grapplers, but de Ridder's top control and submission chain give him the edge. Allen's improved striking makes him dangerous early, yet de Ridder's consistency and positional dominance offer a stronger DFS floor and finishing upside. The preferred DFS side is de Ridder, though Allen remains a live GPP pivot.
UFC Vancouver Pick: de Ridder
Interested in backing this or other picks seen here on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Kevin Holland (28-14-0) v. Mike Malott (12-2-1)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28 wins (13 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Explosive striker with creative offense and dangerous submissions
- Can get reckless in exchanges and struggles with consistent grapplers
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded finisher with sharp boxing and strong grappling control
- Patient and composed, excels at capitalizing on opponents' mistakes
DFS Perspective: Malott's technical edge and discipline make him the preferred DFS play. If he can neutralize Holland's reach and drag the fight to the mat, he has multiple paths to a finish. Holland's chaos keeps him dangerous early, but Malott's control and submission threat give him the advantage and better overall value.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Malott
Marlon Vera (23-10-1) v. Aiemann Zahabi (13-2-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23 wins (8 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Durable brawler with heavy pressure and excellent finishing instincts
- Dangerous everywhere, but can be outpointed by technical strikers
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Smart, composed striker with clean technique and strong defense
- Prefers a measured pace and avoids unnecessary risks
DFS Perspective: Vera's power and aggression make him the higher-upside play, but Zahabi's technical striking and fight IQ give him a path to a steady decision win. If Zahabi can control range and avoid brawls, he could outscore Vera on volume. My preferred DFS side is Zahabi, offering better floor stability with sneaky value in cash builds.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Zahabi
Manon Fiorot (12-2-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (14-3-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (6 KO/TKO, 6 decisions)
- Elite striker with crisp combinations and outstanding distance control
- Excellent defensive awareness and consistent output across all rounds
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Strong grappler with heavy top pressure and good positional awareness
- Struggles when forced to strike at range or pressured by volume
DFS Perspective: Fiorot is one of the safest and strongest plays on the card. Her striking dominance, defensive skill and ability to dictate pace should allow her to outclass Jasudavicius over three rounds. The preferred DFS side is Fiorot, who has a high floor and a strong chance to score through volume and control.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Fiorot
Cody Gibson (21-11-0) v. Aoriqileng (25-12-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 9 decisions)
- Veteran with solid boxing fundamentals and a strong wrestling base
- Durable, composed, and capable of controlling pace against pressure strikers
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25 wins (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 16 decisions)
- Powerful striker with forward pressure and heavy hands
- Struggles defensively when extended or forced to fight off his back foot
DFS Perspective: Gibson's experience and ability to mix striking with wrestling make him the safer DFS option. Aoriqileng is live for an early finish, but Gibson's durability and fight IQ should allow him to dictate the tempo and score steadily across three rounds. The preferred DFS side is Gibson, with a dependable floor and control-based upside.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Gibson
Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) v. Matt Frevola (11-5-1)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Technical striker with solid counterpunching and good takedown defense
- Well-rounded and durable, excels when maintaining range and composure
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 4 decisions)
- High-pressure wrestler with aggressive forward movement
- Dangerous early, but can fade if forced to strike at distance
DFS Perspective: Nelson's balanced skill set and defensive awareness make him the safer DFS play. If he keeps the fight standing, his cleaner striking and control of range should earn him the edge. Frevola is a live underdog with early finish potential, but Nelson offers the steadier floor and better chance to win over three rounds.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Kyle Nelson
Are you behind this underdog pick? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) v. Davey Grant (15-7-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 16 wins (8 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Explosive striker with high volume and creative offense
- Durable and aggressive, but can be drawn into brawls and defensive lapses
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15 wins (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Veteran finisher with strong grappling and sneaky knockout power
- Extremely tough and thrives in wild exchanges and scrambles
DFS Perspective: This fight should deliver fireworks. Jourdain's pace and creativity make him a high-upside GPP target, but Grant's durability and grappling give him steadier scoring potential. Expect a war with both men having paths to a finish, though Grant's toughness and submission threat make him a strong underdog DFS play.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Grant
Bruno Silva (14-7-2) v. Hyun Sung Park (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (6 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Explosive veteran with power and strong ground control
- Can fade late and struggle against faster, more technical fighters
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (4 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 1 decisions)
- Well-rounded prospect with sharp striking and elite scrambling ability
- Fast, technical, and composed under pressure with excellent timing
DFS Perspective: Park's speed, precision and grappling transitions should allow him to control this fight from start to finish. Silva's experience makes him durable, but Park's superior technique and pace give him clear edges everywhere. My preferred DFS pick is Park, who should win handily and has strong potential to break the slate with a dominant finish.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Park
Danny Barlow (9-1-0) v. Djorden Santos (10-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 3 decisions)
- Long, powerful striker with excellent range and composure
- Strong defensive awareness and capable of controlling distance
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10 wins (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Well-rounded finisher with quick hands and opportunistic grappling
- Explosive but less proven against higher-level competition
DFS Perspective: Barlow's power, range and poise make him the safer DFS option. He should be able to dictate range and pace while avoiding Santos' bursts. Santos is live for a finish, but Barlow is the preferred DFS play with superior technique, reach and control that translate to a strong floor and solid ceiling.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Barlow
Kyle Prepolec (18-9-0) v. Drew Dober (27-15-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18 wins (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Technical striker with solid combinations and decent movement
- Struggles defensively when pressured or drawn into brawls
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 27 wins (11 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Explosive striker with elite power and veteran composure
- Durable and aggressive, thrives in pressure-heavy exchanges
DFS Perspective: This is a great "get right" spot for Dober. His experience, power and pace should overwhelm Prepolec early, making him one of the top DFS targets on the slate. Prepolec is live for a flash finish, but Dober has the clear advantages in durability, skill and finishing upside.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Dober
Stephanie Luciano (6-2-1) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-2-1)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 decisions)
- Technical Muay Thai striker with sharp timing and solid defensive movement
- Composed under pressure and effective at maintaining range
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Heavy-handed brawler who thrives in wild exchanges
- Aggressive but leaves openings defensively and struggles if countered cleanly
DFS Perspective: Luciano's poise, precision and defensive sharpness make her the preferred DFS play. Oliveira's power always poses a threat, but Luciano's technical striking and discipline should allow her to control the fight and score steadily over three rounds. The optimal play is Luciano, as she offers both safety and solid upside through volume.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Luciano
Azamat Bekoev (20-3-0) v. Yousri Belgaroui (8-3-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20 wins (8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions, 4 decisions)
- Well-rounded finisher with strong grappling and power in close exchanges
- Excellent ground control and composure under pressure
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Former kickboxer with sharp striking and devastating knockout power
- Struggles defensively on the mat and under sustained grappling pressure
DFS Perspective: Bekoev's all-around skill set and finishing versatility make him one of the stronger plays on the card. Belgaroui's knockout potential makes him dangerous early, but if Bekoev gets inside and initiates grappling, he should dominate. The preferred DFS side is Bekoev, who has multiple paths to a finish and solid scoring upside.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Bekoev
Melissa Croden (6-2-0) v. Tainara Lisboa (7-3-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6 wins (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful striker with finishing ability and strong forward pressure
- Can be vulnerable defensively when extended or taken off balance
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7 wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 1 decision)
- Well-rounded fighter with sharp striking and a dangerous submission game
- Composed under pressure and capable of adapting mid-fight
DFS Perspective: This fight could go either way and produce a surprising score for DFS. Croden's power makes her live early, but Lisboa's well-rounded approach and composure give her the advantage over three rounds. My preferred side is Lisboa, who has more paths to win and solid finishing potential both on the feet and the mat.
UFC Vancouver Pick: Lisboa
RotoWire has the latest in UFC betting odds & fighter prop bets for every event, plus compares markets across multiple legal sportsbooks.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
