This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Vicente Luque ($8,500)
Luque's co-main event bout against Geoff Neal will be no pushover. Neal is very strong and has legitimate stopping power in his hands. That said, Luque can match Neal's size and will actually enter with a one-inch reach edge in what should be a kickboxing match. Luque has never been knocked out in his 30 professional fights, and I like his chances of landing plenty of volume on the feet in this one. As long as Luque's durability doesn't suddenly betray him, he should be in good shape here from a DK perspective.
Bryan Battle ($8.700)
Battle only has two UFC fights under his belt, but he's won both, while his opponent, Takashi Sato, has lost four of his last five. Battle has excellent size for the welterweight division at 6-foot-1. He's proven to be a high volume striker, the type who is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. That never works against better competition, but I doubt Sato can take advantage of the opening. Battle also landed a takedown in each of his two bouts, so he has a path to generating secondary offense. Battle's price is a couple hundred higher than I'd like, but he still seems like a reasonable play.
Don't forget to try out these plays on the RotoWire DraftKings MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on PrizePicks
Sergey Spivac OVER 1.5 takedowns, Stephanie Egger OVER 2.5 takedowns, Jamahal Hill OVER 30.5 significant strikes, Michal Oleksiejczuk OVER 47.5 significant strikes
Welcome to the "overs" club.
Spivac averages 3.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. His opponent, Augusto Sakai, is a pure brawler who defends the takedown at a 68-percent clip. He's displayed questionable cardio in the past and has no path to victory other than a knockout. If Spivac can score a single takedown in the first half of the fight, he should easily be able to find a second in the latter portion of the bout.
Over 2.5 takedowns for Egger seems pretty high. She's had a pair of takedowns in her last two bouts, but has never gotten to three. The reason I like the play is two-fold. First, I don't think Egger's opponent, Mayra Bueno Silva, is all that great. Second, and more importantly, is the fact Egger lands and absorbs exactly 1.69 significant strikes per minute. Those are both shockingly low numbers, and if this fight doesn't end quickly, and it shouldn't, Egger's offense is going to have to come from somewhere.
This Hill prop is the easiest one on the entire card. In each of Hill's three UFC bouts which have reached the second round he has blown past this number. This is a guy who averages 7.06 significant strikes per minute. This fight is scheduled for five rounds, and while Santos clearly doesn't look like the same guy who nearly took the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship from Jon Jones on one leg in July 2019, four of his past five fights have still seen the final bell. As long as this bout doesn't end within a round, Hill should get there.
Oleksiejczuk's opponent, Sam Alvey, is winless (0-7-1) in his past eight fights. Alvey is now 36 years of age and simply stands there and throws bombs and hopes for the best. Considering the fact Alvey displays zero footwork, Oleksiejczuk should be able to cruise to the over here if this fight lasts five or six minutes. That's far from a guarantee given Alvey's recent record, but I'd label the odds better than 50/50.
Bets to Consider
Cory McKenna (-225), Terrance McKinney (-850) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (-580) to win outright parlay (-112)
Three-leg parlays are always risky, but this one seems to be on the "safer" side. I touched on Oleksiejczuk above.
McKinney is by far the biggest favorite on the entire card. He was quickly knocked out by Drew Dober this past March but scored stoppage wins in his first two UFC bouts and is facing an opponent in Erick Gonzalez who has one UFC fight under his belt in which he was knocked out by Jim Miller early in Round 2. McKinney's price is far too high to play outright, but he's fine as a parlay piece.
The McKenna play is an interesting one. Her split-decision loss to Elise Reed in March came as a major shock, but she was on the sidelines for nearly a year and a half prior and I'm chalking the result up to rust. If she no-shows another fight here, I'll be concerned. Miranda Granger took a unanimous decision from Hannah Goldy in her company debut but has been dreadful of late, dropping back-to-back fights to Ashley Yoder and Amanda Lemos. McKenna's -225 price tag is fair and makes the overall parlay price extremely tolerable.
Sam Alvey to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)
I don't think Alvey is going to win. In fact, I'd be borderline shocked if he does. That said, any victory of his will likely come via knockout and this is a huge number. I could see him going for broke if he realizes it's his very last opportunity in the UFC and things are slipping away. Tossing $25 bucks on Alvey in hopes of walking away with $275 isn't the worst idea in the world.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Ariane Lipski UNDER 97.5 total strikes
This is another one that doesn't make much sense. Lipski doesn't throw much volume on the feet, averaging 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute. Her opponent, Priscila Cachoeira, absorbs a ridiculous 7.91 significant strikes per minute, but Lipski has gone over this number just once in seven UFC bouts, and that came in her last fight against Mandy Bohm last September. Cachoeira's terrible stand-up defense is a concern, but not enough for me to believe Lipski can safely land at least 98 total strikes.
