This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC remains at the Apex on Saturday for UFC Vegas 86 on Saturday, February 10. In the main event, Jack Hermansson takes on Joe Pyfer.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Lightweight
Michael Johnson (21-19) vs. Darrius Flowers (12-6-1)
Michael Johnson has had a very odd UFC career, but this is a spot I like him to get his hand raised as a slight favorite against Darrius Flowers.
Flowers will drop down to lightweight after he was submitted by Jake Matthews last July, and although he should have been a lightweight, this is a tough spot for him against Johnson.
Johnson is a savvy veteran who is active on the feet, as he averages 4.28 significant strikes per minute, while Flowers is absorbing 7.02 significant strikes. Johnson should be able to keep it standing and be more active on the feet to edge out a decision.
UFC Vegas 86 Best Bet: Michael Johnson (-120)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Max Griffin (19-10) vs. Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1)
For my underdog at UFC Vegas 86, I'm backing Max Griffin to get his hand raised against Jeremiah Wells, as I believe this should be a pick'em.
Wells is coming off a submission loss to Carlston Harris back in August, while Griffin suffered a decision loss to Michael Morales back in July. Griffin is a solid striker who is extremely durable, but his wrestling defense is a bit of a concern.
Griffin does have 69 percent takedown defense, and Wells will shoot for plenty of takedowns, as he's averaging 3.89 takedowns per fight. However, his accuracy is only 41 percent, so Griffin should be able to stuff most of those attempts. On the feet, Griffin is the much better striker and should be able to jab his way to a decision, as Wells will likely fade later in the fight.
UFC Vegas 86 Best Bet: Max Griffin (+136)
Weight Class: Featherweight
Dan Ige (17-7) vs. Andre Fili (23-10
The co-main event is an intriguing featherweight fight between Dan Ige and Andre Fili.
Ige enters the fight as a -170 favorite, but I like him to beat Fili by decision at +165. The Hawaiian is not much of a finisher, as he's won five of his nine wins in the UFC by decision, while Fili has lost five of his nine losses by decision.
Fili has proven to be durable, as the way to finish him has been by submission, but Ige is more of a striker. The Hawaiian should be able to out-volume Fili on the feet and edge out a decision here.
UFC Vegas 86 Best Bet: Dan Ige by decision (+165)
Weight Classes: Bantamweight & light heavyweight
Daniel Marcos (15-0) vs. Aori Qileng (25-11)
Devin Clark (14-8) vs. Marcin Prachnio (16-7)
For my parlay, I'm backing Daniel Marcos and Devin Clark to get their hands raised Saturday night in Vegas.
Both Marcos and Aoriqileng throw a ton of volume, but Aoriqileng takes too much damage, as shown by his negative striking differential. Both have mediocre wrestling, so this fight will likely take place on the feet, and Marcos is the better striker with better cardio to get the win here.
For the other leg, I'm taking Clark to edge out a decision against Marcin Prachnio. Clark will be able to use his wrestling here and out-grapple Prachnio, who does have a weakness with his takedown defense.
In his UFC career, Prachnio has a 54 percent takedown defense while Clark averages 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. With this being the last fight on his deal, Clark will fight smart and wrestle early and often to grind out a decision win.
UFC Vegas 86 Best Bets: Daniel Marcos & Devin Clark parlay (+102)
UFC Vegas 86 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 86 best bets.
- Michael Johnson (-120)
- Max Griffin (+136)
- Dan Ige by decision (+165)
- Daniel Marcos & Devin Clark parlay (+102)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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