Food City 300
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
Course: Bristol Motor Speedway
Format: Oval
Laps: 300
Food City 300 Preview
We've reached the Xfinity playoffs and kick off the Round of 12 on Friday night in Bristol. Connor Zilisch has either won or been credited with a win (as was the case at Daytona) in seven of the last eight races to reach a point of dominance we rarely see at this level. He clearly has all the momentum, but the playoff format is unpredictable and the picture can change quickly.
Both Zilisch and Justin Allgaier are likely safe to reach the Round of 8, but the rest of the field is separated by only 16 playoff points. That spans from Sam Mayer in third to Austin Hill (who was penalized all of his playoff points) in 12th.
Key Stats at Bristol
- Number of Races: 82
- Winners from Pole: 12
- Winners from top-five starters: 43
- Winners from top-10 starters: 60
Previous 10 Bristol Winners
2025 spring – Kyle Larson
2024 - Cole Custer
2023- Justin Allgaier
2022- Noah Gragson
2021- AJ Allmendinger
2020 fall- Chase Briscoe
2020 spring- Noah Gragson
2019 fall- Tyler Reddick
2019 spring– Christopher Bell
2018 – Kyle Larson
We saw a relatively clean race in the spring version of Bristol, with Kyle Larson dominating the field. He led 277 of the possible 300 laps, with only Justin Allgaier briefly challenging him. Without Larson or any other Cup driver in the field, we should expect a tighter race and with that a lot of the bumping (to take a generous view) that we saw at Martinsville in particular in the spring.
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Food City 300
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Connor Zilisch - $12,500
Justin Allgaier - $11,500
Jesse Love- $10,000
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Brandon Jones - $9,500
Sammy Smith - $8,800
Carson Kvapil - $8,600
Ryan Sieg - $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Christian Eckes- $7,900
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Daniel Dye - $7,000
Dean Thompson- $6,900
Jeffrey Earnhardt - $6,800
Brennan Poole- $6,000
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks for the Food City 300
Jesse Love - $10,000
Brandon Jones - $9,500
Carson Kvapil - $8,600
Christian Eckes- $7,600
Daniel Dye - $7,000
Dean Thompson- $6,900
It's been a while since we've had a traditional short track race in the Xfinity series, and a number of drivers we may not typically target should be priority targets this week. Brandon Jones and Carson Kvapil stand out in that regard. Jones has finished inside the top eight in six of his last seven races at Bristol dating back to 2020, including his fifth-place finish in the spring after he qualified 14th. Kvpail has a shorter sample, but has performed well at Bristol in both the Xfinity and Truck series. To make the Round of 8, Kvapil likely needs a good showing Friday night.
Eckes is another priority target in the middle tiers. He finished inside the top four in each of his last three races at Bristol while in the Truck series, and he then moved up from starting 22nd to ninth in the spring Xfinity race.
This build was unique because the majority of the top picks are in the middle range of pricing rather than either extreme. The top tier lacks a standout option. Zilisch is the obvious choice based on his recent form. Allgaier has a strong history at the track but has been in a relative slump for the last few months. Love has two strong showings at the track, so there's a case to be made for each driver in Tier 1.
The bottom of the driver pool also isn't as plentiful as in past weeks, but most builds will require a total punt (Poole) or multiple Tier 4 drivers.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for Food City 300
Winner: Justin Allgaier (+220), Jesse Love (+1000), Brandon Jones (+1100)
Top-Five Finish: Brandon Jones (+120), Ryan Sieg (+220)
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Carson Kvapil (-135) vs. Ryan Sieg (+100)
Sammy Smith (-115) vs. Carson Kvapil (-120)
Much of the same logic from the DFS section applies for our best bets. Brandon Jones, Allgaier and even Love all present value with different wagers. Jones has short odds for a top-five finish, but he has a consistent track record of doing so. He's finished fifth or better in three of his last five races and four of the last seven at Bristol. That makes him an intriguing driver as both a potential race winner and top-five finisher.
Ryan Sieg is another driver worth highlighting. He wasn't included in the DFS portion because he is priced up appropriately. He certainly has shorter odds than a typical weekend, but he offers some potential value in both the head-to-head matchup and the top-five finish market.
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