The Armband: FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Analysis

More than half of FPL teams have Mohamed Salah, and while he's likely to be the most popular captain option in Gameweek 1, RotoWire's Adam Zdroik has some other options who could pay off handsomely.
The Armband: FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Analysis
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Only a few weeks ago, France was playing Croatia in the World Cup final (and Romelu Lukaku vs. Harry Kane for third place). Yet, another Premier League season is almost underway. A month of World Cup play made the summer break feel like a couple days for a lot of the top players, especially with preseason friendlies included in the mix.

That's the biggest problem for fantasy Premier League as it enters another season. Fortunately, there weren't any major additions to the league so it's most of the same players at the top. Mohamed Salah, who destroyed FPL last season with 303 fantasy points, is on more than 52 percent of teams (as of Aug. 6). The next highest player is teammate Roberto Firmino at 35.2 percent. For anyone looking to take a differential strategy, the best route is to fade Liverpool. Of course, early matches against West Ham, Crystal Palace and Brighton could produce 10 goals for the Reds and then put any differential player in a huge hole.

And that's why Salah is the top captain this week. After accruing 32 goals and 10 assists in league play last campaign, there's little reason to go against him, especially since West Ham gave up a league-high 42 away goals last season. Firmino is a reasonable choice, but he averaged almost two fewer shots per match than Salah. With so few other choices, I'm also throwing Sadio Mane into the conversation.

Elsewhere, there are a few matchups that stand out if you want someone other than Salah for the armband. Manchester United (v. Leicester) and Tottenham (at Newcastle) would normally be good places to look, but even if Lukaku and Kane both play, expecting 90 minutes is a stretch. Alexis Sanchez at least deserves to be in the conversation, more so than teammates Juan Mata or Marcus Rashford. Alexis never looked right with Man United last season, and that's why he won't be too popular. He scored just two goals in 12 starts for the Red Devils after seven goals in 19 Arsenal appearances. Christian Eriksen is another Spurs player who may not start and either way, Newcastle allowed fewer than a goal per match at home last season. Sure, Spurs won 2-0 in this spot last August, but both goals came after a Jonjo Shelvey red card.

Chelsea are away against a beatable side in Huddersfield, but they have the same issues. Eden Hazard probably won't play, while trusting Alvaro Morata or Pedro takes some guts in the first gameweek. I'd probably be more comfortable looking at Man City, even with a trip to the Emirates. Arsenal performed well in preseason, but City are another animal and won this meeting 3-0 in March. Guessing their starting XI is the other question, as Kevin De Bruyne probably won't be ready after returning to training Monday. City's squad should look familiar to the Community Shield match when Sergio Aguero bagged a brace, while De Bruyne wasn't in the lineup and Gabriel Jesus came off the bench.

As for the players no one else will consider captaining, it's a scarce list. Cardiff will likely sit back for the majority of their match against Bournemouth, and that should lead to opportunities for the Cherries. That means either Joshua King or Callum Wilson, and in the same mold as my bargain bin article, Wilson makes a little more sense after being more effective last season. That said, King will be more popular with more goals in the preseason. You could throw a Liverpool defender into the mix, but I'm not taking that route in Gameweek 1.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam, a multiple-time finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's soccer editor. He runs RotoWire's Bracketology and partakes in various NFL content. He previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
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