Bernie on the Scene: Evaluating AL Rookie Hitters

This is my third analysis of rookie performances in the shortened MLB "sprint" season.

This week, I will feature American League rookie hitters. The next article will include American League rookie pitchers.

While football dominates fantasy now, it is never too early to plan for the next fantasy baseball season. I hope these scouting opinions help.

Kyle Lewis, CF, Mariners (Rookie Of The Year candidate)

Kyle Lewis is an outstanding athlete. At 6-foot-4, 205, Lewis once had dynamic speed to steal bases in bunches. Some of that speed has been reduced due to very serious knee issues he faced in his development program. In fact, he left the 2017 Arizona Fall League due to that injury.

Lewis was the Mariners' first-round pick out of Mercer University in 2016.  

I really believe Lewis has 30-homer potential, and maybe even more. A right-handed hitter, Lewis does have a bit of a hitch in his swing that can cause him some hiccups with breaking balls, where timing is everything.

As with most power hitters, Lewis will strike out more than we'd like. But he'll also barrel the ball to his pull side and get his share of gap doubles, and perhaps some triples as well. He will be the focal point of the Mariners offense for years to come.

Next year: Lewis will be highly prized in fantasy leagues. On a team that did surprise at times this year, Lewis should have opportunities to drive in runs. Be wary about stolen bases, however. They'll be there, but not in bunches. I'll be looking to grab Lewis whenever I can.

Luis Robert, CF, White Sox (Rookie Of The Year Candidate)

Robert is a five-tool player and one of the best conditioned athletes I have seen in quite some time. There isn't anything Robert can't do on a baseball field.

Robert has developed outstanding power from his picture perfect 6-2, 210-pound frame. He has outstanding eye-hand coordination and very quick hands through the ball.

With power to all fields, Robert experienced a massive slump in the last three weeks of the season. But that'll happen. I still think he'll be a great player.

Defensively, Robert will get to anything in his area code in the outfield, and his strong and accurate arm will keep runners in check.

Look for Robert to explode on the bases in a full season. He should be in line for a potential of 30 stolen bases. He could hit 30 and steal 30 for years to come.

Next year: No doubt about it, Robert will be gone off the board early. He has everything we need for our fantasy teams, and I will have him high on my draft lists.

Nick Solak, OF/INF, Rangers

I watched Nick Solak during spring training and realized the Rangers would do everything possible to fit this guy into their plans. This season he played 1B, 2B, LF and CF as well as serving as a DH. He should give you both OF and 2B eligibility.

At 5-11, 185, this is a guy you can use for some power and speed. He still has to learn how to steal bases, as he was thrown out in five of his 13 attempts. I will caution, however, that he may be more a gap doubles hitter than someone who can take the ball over the fence regularly.

A right-handed hitter, Solak has a nice, short stroke with good pitch recognition. In today's game, he can be counted on to put the ball in play and barrel some home runs.

Next year: Solak is intriguing as a second-base candidate, as he can give you some pop from that position. But I wouldn't go overboard targeting him as an outfielder. I'll wait and perhaps make a move when he drops.

Ryan Mountcastle, LF/1B, Orioles

The Orioles have been waiting for Mountcastle for quite some time. 

When I first scouted him, Mountcastle was playing third base. The team now has him at both left field and first base. So, here's another player who can give you multiple position eligibility.

Big and strong at 6-3, 210, the right-handed hitting Mountcastle was a first-round draft pick out of high school in 2015. Remember folks, his draft status means he will play. You can draft him with the confidence he will be in the lineup. Money matters. Especially with the Orioles.

The factor that bodes well for Mountcastle is his ability to make hard contact. He struck out only 30 times, and that's a huge plus.

Mountcastle is a clank defensively. He is plodding and slow without range or mobility. He'll also be a base clogger. Don't look for stolen bases.

He could be in line to be a 30-homer type hitter with a measured swing and an ability to find the barrel. He is strictly on the club for his offense, which is what fantasy is all about. Playing in Camden Yards with a friendly left field porch, he should have a nice future.

Next year: I am drafting him due to his power potential and good contact rate. I won't be counting on him running at all, which means few doubles and no stolen bases, other than a fluke or two.

Jo Adell, OF, Angels

Any way you slice it, Adell had a very bad rookie season for the Angels. The most shocking number for me was not that he hit only three home runs. It was that he didn't steal a base.

Whenever I have spoken with Adell, he was most excited to get to the big leagues and steal bases. I simply don't think he was 100 percent healthy, as he's had multiple leg injuries.

Adell still projects to be a very solid player with the potential to be an occasional All-Star. But I must say, this season has put some cold water on his piping hot development hype.

Adell has an incredible 6-3, 215, picture-perfect frame. At age 21, he is a five-tool player still waiting to break out. 

Adell has power, speed and good overall baseball instincts. But there are times he gets way too aggressive and impatient. He has to calm down and let his natural tools and ability carry his at-bats. His strikeouts mounted with frustration. Pitchers will continue to feed him breaking balls until he learns to adjust and recognize them sooner.

Next year: I will take more caution with Adell and not just buy what I have seen from him in the past. I would like to use 2021 as a "show me it again" year. I do think some caution might be in order. But … he could deliver big numbers if he realizes his potential.

Austin Hays, OF, Orioles

Hays was highly ranked as an Orioles prospect with upside. He had a fairly good campaign after coming off serious injuries the last couple seasons. He has had a broken rib and more.

A third-round pick out of Jacksonville University, Hays likely will have a job in the Orioles outfield for years to come.

Hays has more power than he has shown so far. He has an aggressive approach at the plate, and I think we can safely say he will hunt home runs. If he tones down that approach, his batting average and on-base percentage can improve.

Hays isn't particularly big or strong at 6-0, 205. He does have quick hands through the ball and he gets the most out of his impactful swings.

He was caught stealing three of five times, so keep that in mind if you are looking for stolen bases. He does have some speed though.

Next year: I still see huge upside with Hays, who might go unnoticed in drafts. He's capable of having a big year or just becoming a bust. I'll give him a good look if the auction price or draft slot is right.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

Mr. Arozarena was a gift from the Cardinals to the Rays in a trade that sent Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. Liberatore will help St. Louis. The Cardinals need him. But man, when I saw Arozarena in Ft. Myers this spring, I sat up in my seat.

The Cuban native is coming into his prime. At age 25, Arozarena is a 5-11, 185-pound athlete with multiple tools.

Arozarena has good bat speed, but there are still some holes in his swing. I think the strikeout rate might be high, but the results when he makes contact are superb. He has really quick hands and feet, helping to make him a quality hitter and runner. He'll steal plenty of bases with good technique to support his speed.

Arozarena has to improve his pitch recognition and decision making at the plate. He has to recognize how the pitcher is trying to get him out both with more accuracy and sooner when the ball leaves the pitcher's hand.

Next year: No doubt in my mind, Arozarena will get playing time and he'll make the most of the opportunity. I am targeting him for multiple categories of success.

Evan White, 1B, Mariners

After seeing White in spring training, I was concerned he would be a "defense first" player. While his batting average was abysmal, his power was a bit of a surprise.

A 2017 first-round pick out of the University of Kentucky, White is a disciplined hitter at the plate. His strikeout total of 84 in 202 plate appearances is alarming. When I saw him last spring, he was patient and was able to work a pitcher deep in counts. So even if he hits 20 homers or more during the course of the season, his on-base percentage and contact rates still worry me.

A right-handed hitter, when he makes contact with his short and measured swing, White is capable of using the entire field and hitting the gaps with line drives. But I don't trust there will be enough of those to matter.

White has more speed than one might think for his 6-3, 220-pound frame. He is agile and quick with his feet at first base, which helps to make him a high quality defender.

Next year: I just see too many holes and not enough production for me to get too excited about him in fantasy. The Mariners have signed him to a long-term contract, and he will get the at-bats he needs to improve. But for 2021, I'll pass.

Leody Taveras, CF, Rangers

The Dominican native is likely in the plans of the Rangers. 

Frankly, I have never been a fan. I think Taveras has great ability as a defensive outfielder with excellent speed and range. I just don't see any power potential from his excellent 6-2, 195-pound frame.

He did hit four homers this season in only 134 trips to the plate, but I remain skeptical. Can he produce over a 162-game season and will he be the regular CF?

I will admit that Taveras has made strides his his offensive approach, but those improvements have come after a development program that produced just 19 home runs in 2,073 plate appearances.

Next year: I am proceeding with great caution regarding Taveras. Some guys just blossom a bit later in their development program. He's still only 22, which makes me be very, very patient. He is a good athlete, with huge upside. This will be a "keeper" type player capable of delivering big results.

Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B, Red Sox

My hunch is that Rafael Devers could be traded. He is the best trade chip the Red Sox have to improve. Bobby Dalbec could become their third baseman. But, Dalbec played 21 games at first base in 2020. So does Dalbec stick at first, or do they give that job to Michael Chavis? Or does Chavis slip over to second base permanently and yield first base to Dalbec? Then they keep Devers. Oh, decisions, decisions.

Dalbec is the Red Sox best young player, probably even better than Chavis. But the team has to decide where to play both of their focal point offensive players of the future.

Dalbec is 6-4, 227. That's a bit big for third base, but it shouldn't be an issue. His frame does fit better at first, though.

He was a first-round pick out of high school in the 2014 draft. He's now 25 and getting his first chance at big league baseball.

Dalbec is a powerful hitter. He could have 30 home runs easily in that bat, especially at Fenway. He could bang balls off the Green Monster for years to come. He thrives on fastballs and still has to learn how to hit off-speed and breaking balls. That remains a problem

Dalbec has a very disciplined approach at the plate, and he knows how to hit. He is mechanically sound, with a good eye. But beware — there is plenty of swing and miss in his game. He struck out 39 times. What's new? But because he knows the strike zone, he will likely get a good share of walks.

Next year: There are home runs in that bat. And home runs mean three categories are covered — runs, RBI and, of course, home runs. So what's not to like. He has to play for the Red Sox to be competitive once again. We'll know much more this offseason about their plans for Dalbec and even Chavis.

HEADING HOME

Rest in peace, Whitey Ford. The Yankees Hall of Fame pitcher died Oct. 9 at age 91. He was a great, great pitcher.

We also lost Hall of Famers  Al Kaline, Lou Brock, Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson recently. And Monday, we learned Joe Morgan passed away. He was 77. The year 2020 has seen some of the greatest players of the Golden Era of Baseball pass away.

The skills of Hall of Fame players in that era personally brought me tremendous joy. I loved to watch those great players stand out among their peers. Ford was a crafty lefty. Not big at all at 5-10, 178. He went 25-4 in 1961 and 24-7 in 1963. He made eight All-Star teams in his 16 years on major league mounds, all pitching for the Yankees.

When I was a kid, I hated the Yankees. So did everyone who wasn't a Yankees fan. They always won. Ford pitched in 11 World Series. Can you imagine that? 11 World Series. He had a 10-8 record in those games, pitching to a 2.71 ERA in 146 innings.

There are terrific players in the game of baseball today. The skills of some of the players we are watching now will be talked about for years to come. They are the next wave and era of players who make us shake our heads when we watch. Is Mike Trout Mickey Mantle? Is Ronald Acuna Jr. Roberto Clemente? Time will be kind to this fantastic crop of great baseball stars.

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff and read my articles, like those below at forbes.com:

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