MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

There are still well over 100 games remaining in the season, so it's far too early to take a victory lap or walk of shame about nearly any prediction any of us made over the offseason. Still, enough of the schedule has been played that we're able to have some idea about many of them.

With that in mind, I thought I'd use this introductory space this week for an early check-in on my own preseason rankings. I took a look back at the final edition of our Roundtable Rankings and pulled out the highest-ranked player at each position on whom I was either the highest or lowest out of the four of us. A few of them already look like hits (being low on Francisco Lindor) and a few already look like misses (being high on Keston Hiura). You can find each player as well as a quick check-in on their performances thus far below. 

Players I was high on:

C J.T. Realmuto (my rank 39, median rank 49.5): I was evidently less scared than most about his offseason thumb injury. The thumb hasn't been a problem, but he's been banged up all year with other injuries and is currently on the injured list, though he does have a career-best 143 wRC+ when he's been available.

1B Jose Abreu (my rank 26, median rank 35): I may have weighed last year's MVP season too heavily or his age (34) too lightly. This version of Abreu is still a very good player, but a career-high strikeout rate and career-low batting average suggest I'll probably wind up being too high on him.

2B Keston Hiura (my rank 60, median rank 69.5): My high ranking here was more a reflection of my dislike of the rest of the second-base pool than an indication that I had more confidence in him than most people. Still, it's certainly looked as though anyone who was willing to take the risk on Hiura was very wrong so far, and his sky-high strikeout rate didn't drop in a demotion to the minors, so I'm not feeling confident about this ranking looking good anytime soon.

3B Alec Bohm (my rank 87, median rank 107.5): I knew a .410 BABIP inflated his numbers last year, but him making a ton of contact was right in line with his scouting reports and he's still young, so I expected skills growth to counteract a loss of good luck. So far, the luck has evaporated while the skills have slid back dramatically, as he's suddenly striking out a lot more while hitting for even less power.

SS Corey Seager (my rank 23, median rank 28.5): His breakout last year was backed by improvements in his contact quality, so I was very willing to buy in. His surface stats this year suggest he's the same guy he was prior to 2020, though his expected stats indicate he's somewhere between last year's season and the pre-2020 version. Unfortunately, he's now out with a broken hand.

OF Juan Soto (my rank 1, median 3.5): A guy can't be first overall if he misses nearly a quarter of the year due to injury, which is what Soto has done so far. When healthy, his numbers are down significantly from last season, but he's underperforming his xSLG by 100 points and has his lowest strikeout rate ever, so I'm still hopeful going forward.

SP Shane Bieber (my rank 8, median rank 10.5): I'm regretting ranking Bieber one spot ahead of Gerrit Cole, who's been the top-earning pitcher by some margin this season, but it's not as if Bieber has been anything close to disappointing, as he's leading the league in strikeouts. Hot starts by some other pitchers have pushed him just outside the top 10 earners thus far, but he's still been excellent and could easily make up the gap by the end of the year.

RP Edwin Diaz (my rank 67, median rank 83): There were some offseason rumblings that Diaz would be something less than a true closer, but Diaz getting seven of the team's 10 saves doesn't seem like anything to worry about. A career-low 31.5 percent strikeout rate is a potential issue, though he should still be a good closer if that figure doesn't improve, albeit not a top-tier one.

Players I was low on:

C Christian Vazquez (my rank 178, median 155): His .457 slugging percentage last year beat his .356 xSLG by 101 points, so it's no surprise to see him slugging .372 this year. We collectively had him as the seventh catcher while I had him eighth, and he ranks ninth in earned auction value, so everyone seems more or less right here.

1B Freddie Freeman (my rank 17, median rank 15.5): Being low on Freeman (albeit only very slightly) looks right so far, as he's hitting a merely good .235/.360/.471. He'll probably wind up below expectations due to some early bad luck but should be fine going forward, as his .296 xBA and .592 xSLG indicate he's hitting the ball as well as ever.

2B Whit Merrifield (my rank 45, median rank 41.5): I'm always a bit nervous about guys in their 30s who get a lot of their value from steals. Merrifield's league-leading 13 steals suggest that was a misguided fear, though he does have a career-low .250 batting average, which is backed by a drop in xBA, so he'll have to keep running to maintain his value.

3B Manny Machado (my rank 24, median rank 21): Machado has alternated between good and great in recent seasons, and I guess I didn't have quite as much faith as others that he was in line for two great years in a row. So far, that's looked accurate, as career lows in average and slugging are matched by Statcast-era lows in xBA and xSLG.

SS Francisco Lindor (my rank 25, median rank 22): I bought into the projection systems, which placed Lindor at or near the back on the large group of elite shortstops, but neither I nor those projections envisioned anything like this. Lindor has shown career lows across the board, which are matched by career lows in his expected stats, and he clearly needs some adjustments to get back to his usual level.

OF Mookie Betts (my rank 6, median rank 4.5): I had Betts at the back of the group of elite, five-category hitters who topped most draft boards, though I certainly expected better than what he's shown so far. His xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all at their lowest points since 2017, though even this version of Betts is still a valuable player, and there's plenty of time for him to turn things around.

SP Walker Buehler (my rank 36, median rank 26.5): I had Buehler toward the back of the tier of elite starters, as he'd never quite managed a 30 percent strikeout rate, something each of the other top-10 starters had achieved. He has a career-low 26.6 percent strikeout rate thus far, so you would indeed be better off with most of the other top-tier pitchers, but it's not as if he's been anything close to bad.

RP Richard Rodriguez (my rank 271, median rank 236.5): I had doubts about Rodriguez following some late-March rumblings that he wouldn't be a true closer. As it turns out, he has all of the Pirates' six saves, though his underlying numbers don't come close to backing up his 0.47 ERA, with a 4.66 xFIP suggesting he hasn't been closer material.

Hopefully the above is useful as a window into the sorts of things I look at when ranking players and also as a check-in on several of the game's top players. Many of the players listed above are guys I'd rank differently with hindsight. Enough about draft season, though, as it's time to take a look at this week's set of players whose performances in recent weeks definitely make me wish I could redo a few rankings.

RISERS

Jesse Winker, OF, Reds: Winker featured in this column a few weeks ago following a blistering April, but he earns top billing this week as he's just not coming anywhere close to slowing down. His 192 wRC+ in May is an exact match for the mark he produced in April, meaning he's now tied with Vladimir Guerrero in that category, trailing only Mike Trout. He was as hot as ever in the weekend series against the Brewers, homering five times. Winker always had a base as a very strong contact hitter, hitting .299 over his first two years in the league, so it's not a huge surprise that a player with such a natural talent for hitting would add power as he ages. He showed the first steps of that in last year's shortened season, posting a career-best .289 ISO, but he's on another level this year, as a career-high 53.7 percent hard-hit rate has helped his ISO jump again up to .329, the third-best mark among qualified hitters.

Fernando Tatis, SS, Padres: Tatis looked to be in trouble after dislocating his shoulder in early April, as there was a real worry that he'd perform at a diminished level once he returned from the injured list. Those fears couldn't have been more inaccurate. Tatis isn't even technically a qualified hitter, as the time missed to both the shoulder issue and a positive COVID-19 test have conspired to limit him to just 30 games, yet he's still managed to rank second in earned auction value. His 13 homers tie him for fourth despite that missed time, while his 10 steals tie him for second. His 194 wRC+ represents a big step forward from his 149 mark over his first two seasons, something that shouldn't be too surprising given that he's still just 22 years old and would rank second behind only Mike Trout if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. If he can just stay healthy the rest of the year, he'll stand a very good chance to finish as the best player in the league even with the missed time.

Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers: It's not Winker, not Tatis, and not any other top pick who leads all players in earned auction value so far this season. That honor goes to Garcia, who went undrafted in 98 percent of NFBC leagues, and for good reason, as he entered the year as a 28-year-old with just 24 MLB plate appearances under his belt and a .255 OPS in that very limited action. He wasn't even on the 40-man roster when the season began but has lit the world on fire since his contract was selected in mid-April, hitting 291/.329/.603 with 14 homers and five steals in 39 games. It might be tough to buy in given Garcia's underwhelming minor-league resume, but his poor plate discipline (he's combined a 5.0 percent walk rate with a 27.3 percent strikeout rate) has been the only blemish on his record this year. The power is very real, as he sits sixth in barrel rate (18.5 percent) and ninth in average exit velocity (93.1 mph).

Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies: Wheeler presented drafters with an interesting conundrum heading into the season. He'd spent recent seasons combining league-average strikeout and groundball rates with above-average control. Last season saw him produce a career-best 2.92 ERA, but he got there in a weird way, combining career bests in groundball rate (55.9 percent) and walk rate (5.6) with a career-worst 18.4 percent strikeout rate. If he kept the positive changes while getting his whiffs back, he'd be an excellent option, but if the drop in strikeouts remained while the other changes slid back, he'd be extremely ordinary. Somehow, he's become yet a different version of himself this year. He's given back most of the groundballs but kept the excellent control, but, more importantly, he's suddenly striking out 29.7 percent of opposing batters, a number that smashes his previous career high of 24.1 percent. This version of Wheeler, which has seen him increase his slider usage from 15.9 percent to 25.1 percent, appears to be the best one yet. He's only getting better as the year goes on, posting a 22:1 K:BB over his last two starts while allowing just a single earned run.

Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Grossman spent the bulk of his career as a serviceable part-time player but not one who would be of much interest to fantasy players. Through the end of the 2019 season, he owns a 102 wRC+, the product of a .253/.351/.372 slash line. He broke out to hit eight homers and steal eight bases while slashing .241.344/.482 last year, but it was easy to write that off as a small-sample blip, especially given his pedestrian .397 xSLG. Grossman's performances this year back up the idea that he's actually just a good hitter now. He owns a career-high 130 wRC+, the product of a .259/.384/.432 slash line, while his .450 xSLG is a personal Statcast-era high. He's also stolen seven bases, giving him 15 in 96 games over the last two years and making him a legitimate contributor in the category despite the fact that he's never finished with double-digit steals.

FALLERS

James McCann, C, Mets: The Mets gave McCann more than $40 million over the offseason, banking on his .276/.334/.474 line with 25 homers in 149 games over the previous two seasons as the sign of a true breakout. That line was inflated by a .355 BABIP, and a .256 xBA in both 2019 and 2020 also hinted at overachievement, but nothing could have prepared the Mets for McCann's current collapse. A catcher who hits in the .250s while approaching 20 homers is a perfectly useful player, but McCann hasn't been anything close to that guy. Through 33 games, he's hitting .200/.270/.238 with just a single homer, and a .296 xSLG and 1.4 percent barrel rate hardly suggest that more pop is around the corner. The Mets appear to have seen enough, as he sat in favor of Tomas Nido in four of the team's six games last week.

Dom Nunez, C, Rockies: Anyone with a regular role at Coors Field deserves consideration for fantasy purposes, especially at catcher, where the offensive bar is already quite low. Nunez seemed to easily clear that bar early in the season, as he homered five times in his first 19 games while posting a .909 OPS. The warning signs were already there, however, as he struck out 42.2 percent of the time even during that hot stretch. He's cut his strikeout rate to a still-awful 36.6 percent of his last 13 games, but his hits have evaporated completely, as he's managed a .386 OPS over that stretch. On the season as a whole, his .183 batting average (which is right in line with his .177 xBA) has done enough damage in that category to counteract any benefit he provides with his decent pop. Nunez wasn't a particularly highly rated prospect and struck out at a 39.5 percent clip in his brief 16-game debut back in 2019 while hitting just .179, so this is probably who he is, leaving him viable only in very deep formats where his respectable power is enough to offset his terrible batting average.

David Fletcher, 2B/3B/SS, Angels: I can't help but love elite contact guys, especially if they walk nearly as often as Fletcher did over the last two seasons, combining an 8.5 percent walk rate with a 10.1 percent strikeout rate. That skillset seemingly gives such a player a very high floor, and demonstrating that kind of bat control in theory provides a base on which the player can later add power. In Fletcher's case, it was probably unwise to expect any power was coming, as he managed a barrel rate of just 0.3 percent over his first three seasons in a league, but it's a surprise to see that his floor is evidently much lower than expected as well. This season, he's hitting a miserable .254/.281/.288 while managing exactly zero barrels. His 11.8 percent strikeout rate, while technically a career high, isn't all that different from recent seasons, but he's simply hitting the ball too weakly to get on base. Even if Fletcher turns things around, he won't offer much other than a decent batting average, and his .400 OPS over his last 10 games hardly suggests that a turnaround is imminent.