This article is part of our MLB Betting series.
Previous day 2-1 +.28
Overall 27-9 +11.39
Another solid day Sunday with 2-1, but low on the units side as Matt Shoemaker beat his k prop by just 0.5. I had him under 4.5 and he got 5. Frustrating because it was at -140 and the two wins were around even money. One of the things you have to consider when betting MLB is the amount of juice you are laying. It is very difficult to gain profit when you are constantly laying -140 or higher.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros 4:10 pm est
I had a huge write-up on Rodriguez yesterday only to have the game be postponed. I'm on the complete opposite side with ERod today as he goes on the road to facing the toughest team to strike out in baseball. I project his strikeouts at 4.5 today and the prop is 5.5.
His road stats this year are 5.59 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, but he has struck out 31 in 29 innings. I just see this as a high-scoring game on both sides and would be surprised if he lasted more than five innings. In his six road starts, he has only lasted five innings in all and four in the other. The Red Sox bullpen is fully rested so Alex Cora will not hesitate to have a short leash on Rodriguez today.
BET – Rodriguez under 5.5 strikeouts (-143) for 1 RW buck
BET – Rodriguez under 17.5 outs (+120) for 1 RW buck
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 pm est
The Mets are the worst 1st 5 team in baseball to the under at 14-26-4 including 2-7-1 in their last 10. With their recent injuries, scoring runs is a challenge to say the least. Kelly has pitched well over his last six starts and he consistently goes six innings or more. Until the explosion of runs Saturday, the Mets had averaged 2.8 runs per game from May 19 to May 27.
The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10; 4-16 in their last 20. Their offense has hit the skids in a huge with a bottom five WRC+ 83 in May. The Dbacks are also 1-7-2 to the under in the 1st 5 innings in their last 10. All of this adds up to two strong pitchers vs. two very weak offenses.
BET – Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts (+110) for 1 RW buck
BET – Under 3.5 runs 1st 5 innings (+100) for 1 RW buck