MLB Betting: Tuesday's Best Bets

MLB Betting: Tuesday's Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Betting series.

Previous: 3-3, +0.61 

Overall: 163-135-2, +10.06

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Charlie Morton vs. Walker Buehler

The Dodgers enter Game 3 down 0-2 with a significant amount of pressure to win tonight. They have been on an incredible run at home since August 1st going 27-6, but also they are 19-3 against the Braves at home over their last 22 games. In their last 33 home games, they have outscored opponents 4.8-2.8. 

Walker Buehler had a home ERA of 2.05 vs. road ERA of 3.08. He only faced the Braves once on August 31st going 6 innings, striking out 7, walking 2, and allowing zero runs. The Dodgers have won 7 in a row at home when Buehler has started. This is the 4th lowest moneyline for Buehler at home all season (-175).  Buehler has gone at least 6 innings in 18 out of 19 home starts. 

The Dodgers are hitting just .208 against Morton (14 for 67). Morton was a road underdog 3 times this season and the Braves were 0-3, but the totals in the games were 3, 5, and 4 runs including his start against the Dodgers on August 31st.  Morton has gone at least 5 innings in 29 out of 33 starts (88%). 

Walker Buehler is starting with extra rest and even though Charlie Morton has also pitched great, I just can not see the Dodgers losing tonight. With that being said, I am not comfortable laying -175 or -1.5 runs in a game that could be very low-scoring.

BET – Under 4 runs F5 (-120 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck

BET – Morton over 14.5 outs (-115 BetMGM) for 0.5 RW buck

BET – Buehler over 15.5 outs (+125 BetMGM) for 0.5 RW buck

Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox

Zack Greinke vs. Nick Pivetta

Opening Line Red Sox -130; Total 9.5 

Current Line Red Sox -125; Total 9.5 (up to 10 in several spots)

The Red Sox offense can not be stopped by anyone at this point. I will ride this wave until we see it slow down. Since August 1st, they have averaged 7 runs per game at home while their totals have averaged 12 runs.  

Zack Greinke has only pitched 11.1 innings since August 29th and the last effective start was August 13 against the Angels. In his last 27.1 innings, he has a 7.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.3 K/9, and 2.3 HR/9. 

Enrique Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, and Hunter Renfroe all have multiple home runs against Greinke. 

Nick Pivetta is starting tonight with significant rest as he last pitched in relief on October 10th going 4.0 innings and striking out seven. He faced the Astros in Houston on June 2nd going 6.0 innings, striking out nine, walking two, and allowing two earned runs.

BET – Red Sox over 4.5 runs (-120 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck

BET – Red Sox -1.5 (+145 BetMGM) for 0.5 RW buck

BET – Red Sox over 2.5 runs F5 (-105 DraftKings) for 1 RW buck

BET – Pivetta over Greinke fewest HRs allowed (-125 DraftKings) for 0.5 RW buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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