Farm Futures: Updated Top 400 Prospect Rankings Mailbag!

The RotoWire Top 400 Prospect Rankings, ETAs and team top 20s are fully updated for the final time during the season. The next update will come after the MLB regular season concludes, and then the big offseason update is always January 15.

Per usual, here's the RotoWire Prospect Podcast Mailbag episode, and then the written version. My thanks to everyone who asked a question on Discord, Twitter or Bluesky. 

YarikaRose: I'd love to hear more details on the top of your board, and what likelihood you think each player has of being a significant 2026 contributor?

1. Konnor Griffin (PIT): Clearly has the highest realistic fantasy ceiling in the minors, but I'm guessing he's not up until late August 2026 for service-time manipulation reasons.
2. Kevin McGonigle (DET): Has a chance to have the highest 2026 ADP of any hitting prospect, including Samuel Basallo (BAL). I think there's merit in Detroit calling him up for this year's playoff run, and if that happens, he'll end up going in the top 150 by March. Could be a five-category player as a rookie, with his power being the biggest question mark in 2026.
3. Jesus Made (MIL): First-round fantasy upside, but more of a 2027 contributor.
4. Sebastian Walcott (TEX): Tracking towards a late August 2026 debut, but he's got enough experience at Double-A that it's possible he shows up to spring training looking more ready for a first-half debut.
5. Leo De Vries (ATH): Seems like a coin flip as to whether he's up in late August 2026 or in the first half of 2027, and I don't think he's worth considering in 2026 draft-and-holds.
6. Samuel Basallo (BAL): Was the 13th catcher taken in the first high-stakes draft of 2026, and I expect him to get drafted in that 10-15 range at the position all offseason. Could hit 30 homers next year if they trade Adley Rutschman.
7. JJ Wetherholt (STL): Should make the Opening Day roster next year, so there'd be no service-time downside to bringing him up this year, although they may just want to get their other guys more reps for evaluation purposes.
8. Walker Jenkins (MIN): Barely any experience at Triple-A, so I'm expecting him to head back there for a couple months before making his big-league debut in June after the Super Two cutoff. 
9. Bryce Eldridge (SF): I'm guessing he'll come to camp as the favorite to win the starting job at first base (with Rafael Devers at DH). Very wide range of performance outcomes for 2026, but he'll at least have a chance to play in the majors all year.
10. Max Clark (DET): Tracking similarly to Jenkins — should head to Triple-A for a couple months before getting the call.
11. Luke Keaschall (MIN): Should be the everyday second baseman and was the eighth second baseman selected in the first high-stakes draft of 2026.
12. Sal Stewart (CIN): Could get the call still this year, and at the very least he should be compeiting for a job in spring training. Can play third, second and first, although it's his bat that will carry him.
13. Jett Williams (NYM): Seems like another potential June call-up, although he's played 19 games at Triple-A, so I wouldn't rule out something sooner.

I'll cut it off there, although Travis Bazzana (CLE) and Aidan Miller (PHI) should contribute some in 2026, and obviously Jordan Lawlar (ARI) and Carson Williams (TB) are a couple other top-25 hitters who will be in the majors for most or all of next year.

Schmidty: Could you break down the tiers for us?

Tier One: Konnor Griffin (PIT)

Tier Two: Kevin McGonigle (DET) and Jesus Made (MIL)

Tier Three: 4. Sebastian Walcott (TEX) - 11. Luke Keaschall (MIN)

Tier Four: 12. Sal Stewart (CIN) - 21. Aidan Miller (PHI)

Tier Five: 22. Jordan Lawlar (ARI) - 43. Kaelen Culpepper (MIN)

Tier Six: 44. Arjun Nimmala (TOR) - 85. Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN)

Tier Seven: 86. Hector Rodriguez (CIN) - 163. Max Anderson (DET)

Tier Eight: 164. Kendry Chourio (KC) - 242. T.J. Nichols (TB)

Gabriel Garcia:  Jesus Made's (MIL) SB numbers this season — icing on the cake or was this skill set baked into his ranking at the beginning of the season?

Definitely not icing on the cake. Made is one of the best athletes in the minors and 30-plus steal speed has been a projected part of the profile since last year.

Yoel: Are you starting to get concerned about Sebastian Walcott (TEX)?

I got a couple variations of this question, which is understandable since he has been my No. 1 overall prospect in the past and has been at Double-A all season. I'm not concerned about Walcott turning into a good big leaguer, and I didn't expect him to contribute in the majors this year, but if he was destined to be a top-three or top-five pick in his prime, he'd probably have done better at Double-A this year. Even so, my main takeaway is that he's a great buy-low. His 12 homers, 27 steals, 11.6 BB% and 21.3 K% as a young 19-year-old spending the whole year at Double-A is still pretty elite, even if he's been passed by Konnor Griffin (PIT), Kevin McGonigle (DET) and Jesus Made (MIL).

PaulMax: Where do you see Jett Williams (NYM) playing -- SS, 2B, CF for the Mets or getting shipped to another team?

My guess is that he's playing CF for the Mets by the middle of the summer, while potentially filling in at shortstop or second base if the depth chart pushes him in that direction, although by my eye they need him much more in the outfield.

Joe Schmuckatelli: Josue De Paula (LAD) outside top 25. Are you down him?

He went from No. 21 to No. 26 on this update, which seems natural given that he's done nothing to improve his stock over the past few months. De Paula has now logged 140 games in the Midwest League as a hitter who has been 30 percent better than the average hitter in the league, which tells you how much he has to work on besides the pure hit tool stuff. 

Schmidty: Has there been any update about Mike Sirota's (LAD) injury? Does he need surgery?

There hasn't been any updates about whether he's had surgery. I think we'd probably have learned by now if he'd had an ACL repair surgery, but that's not a given. He'd seem like a decent Arizona Fall League candidate if he's able, so if he's excluded from the AFL, that could be a tip-off as to the severity of the injury.

SoxStocks: Curious RE your 1B ranks — Josue Briceno (DET) seems quite low. Are you worried at all about his profile? He had an adjustment period to start Double-A, but has picked up this month. Yet Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) has seemingly jumped him on the back of a quick start at Double-A...

I have them back to back since Velazquez is eight months younger and has been even hotter than Briceno (1.065 OPS since July for Velazquez, .748 OPS since July for Briceno), but they're in a tier from 44-85, so if you wanted to value Briceno a bit higher and Velazquez a bit lower, that's fine. They seem like comparable prospects to me.

Beerbot: Maybe a few words on the Carter Jensen (KC) double up arrows? He's got to be the next guy in line after Salvador Perez now?

The bad news for the Royals is they've surrounded Bobby Witt and Maikel Garcia with a bunch of bat-first/bat-only prospects, and Jensen fits more into that bat-first bin. However, given that Perez has already played 57 games at a combination of first base and DH this year with Jensen not on the roster, I'd assume we see Perez play even more away from catcher next year. 

As for Jensen's fantasy profile, it's pretty exciting, since he's seemingly got several paths to providing value, including with his legs on the bases. His 59.1 Statcast HardHit% at Triple-A is elite, as is his 34.8 percent groundball rate, and he has a 1.184 OPS over the last two months. Jensen should be expected to hit around .225 as a rookie, but in a couple years, he could be more of a .245 hitter and a potential top 10 fantasy catcher.

Camposite: What do you think is going on with Cam Collier (CIN)? His thumb injury seems to have sapped him of his power, think he'll get it back?

You nailed it with the thumb injury. None of his non-power metrics are all that concerning when factoring in his age and level, but he's obviously not hitting for enough power this year. I'm giving him a bit of a mulligan by leaving him in a tier that stretches to 85, but I was also higher on him coming into the year, so I understand if you're less willing to be patient.

Daleteekz: I am intrigued by Edward Florentino (PIT). He is only at Single-A, so still pretty early to get really excited about contributions at the MLB level. Is this mainly just hype over a hot start to his minors career? Are you seeing something that points to this being legit and sustainable?

St. Louis Perfectos: Yes, I agree Edward Florentino (PIT) looks good, but what am I missing that has you and others pushing him top 20 and near elite prospect status? How does his bat compare to guys like Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) or Kyle Manzardo (CLE)? Obviously speed is different or is that what separates him?

Phil Kramer: I've been seeing some analysts call Edward Florentino (PIT) this year's Jackson Chourio. Do you think it's a good comparison?

Honestly, last update was kind of The Edward Florentino Update (re-entering the list at No. 32 overall), so I'm a little surprised to still see this many questions about him, although he has undoubtedly been the buzziest prospect of the year. He's doing stuff in the complex league and at Single-A that none of the 18-year-old prospects ranked below him have accomplished. An 86.1 percent contact rate and 5.4 percent swinging strike rate is pretty ridiculous regardless of the age or level of the prospect, but he's doing it as one of the youngest players at Single-A while being the most productive 18-year-old hitter at Single-A (154 wRC+) this year. 

The comparison to Pasquantino and/or Manzardo is interesting, because I don't think he's comparable to those guys at all. I know he's played some first base this year, but he's also played 51 games in center field. I'm not comparing Florentino to Julio Rodriguez as hitters (Florentino is already an elite lift-and-pull hitter, while Rodriguez has never been a big air-pull guy), but I do think they're quite similar in the sense that it wasn't until Rodriguez was basically making his big-league debut that the masses bought into him being a big SB threat or a center fielder. I think I was out in front of that with Rodriguez after seeing him run wild in the AFL, and Florentino faces the same questions from evaluators because of the fact he's seen time (11 games) at first base this year. I think at worst he'll be a right fielder who steals 20-plus bases, and it's possible he gets good enough in center to stick there. 

I don't agree with the Chourio comp unless it's just a reference to their prospect rise. They did have a similar jump in value in their second pro seasons, but they're very different players. Chourio was much smaller and much more aggressive at the same age.

Ral Kipken: Can we trust Pirates development now?

It's a tough question, because nobody would be asking it if not for two players (Konnor Griffin and Edward Florentino), and those two might just be good enough that they would have thrived in almost any organization. I also think they bungled the Bubba Chandler thing this year and should have promoted him in May. This system has much less talent than it should, with just 13 top-400 prospects and six in the top 200, with three of those being pitchers and one being long-shot Tony Blanco. Speaking of...

Eddy Almaguer: Tony Blanco (PIT) -- the 80-grade power is so damn fun, but his contact metrics are pretty much bottom 10% in A-ball. Is this ranking in the hopes that he progresses there? Is early career Joey Gallo the ceiling? And what's the O/U at for number of years he's an everyday player?

I agree about the power being so damn fun and the risk being extreme. This is a classic example of you needing to be aware of the type of prospect you're rostering -- I know Eddy is aware, but just to anyone listening. I think there's gotta be room to gamble on players like Blanco in leagues where every team is rostering 20-30 prospects, and you should know that it' more likely than not that you don't get much or any production from the player. But, power like this is so hard to find and he's still young enough that the range of outcomes isn't quite as narrow as just Joey Gallo or non-big leaguer. A Joey Gallo type of career is better than a median outcome with Blanco, but there's a chance he could have a Chris Davis type of prime where he's a highly sought after fantasy first baseman for three or four years.

Gabriel Garcia: How bricked up should we be about the way Elian Pena's (NYM) turned his season around? Was this power expected given how much the Mets signed him for?

This definitely had the feel of one of those signings where the player peaked at age 14 or 15 and the bonus was agreed to 18-24 months before the player signed, but Pena is obviously much better than that. The hit tool was the one thing that I thought would be good/decent, so the fact he's hit nine homers with 21 steals while still even exceeding expectations with the hit tool is pretty exciting. I'm still leaning more floor than ceiling with Pena, but we'll see how much power/speed he gets to when he comes stateside. 

Everyday Normal Guy: What is a realistic ceiling for Dauri Fernandez (CLE). Do you see him becoming a top 50 prospect?

Guys like Fernandez who hit for a bit more pop than expected in the complex league are very tough to project, because the pitching is so bad and the conditions are so favorable, that it can often be a false positive once they get to full-season ball. Obviously the hitting, running and fielding all look like positives, so if Angel Genao (CLE) can climb up near the top 50, as he did prior to this year's run at Double-A, then Fernandez could too. If he hits for notable power early on at Single-A next year, then I'd say he's on pace to be a top 50 prospect by the end of 2026.

Hsampson: Double up arrows on Kendry Chourio (KC). How long before he's top 50-100? Just a matter of checking the boxes for higher levels? His motion looks effortless and the command, I'm sure you're already aware — very intriguing prospect...

Yeah, he's extremely fun and exciting, and figuring out where to rank 17-year-old pitchers dominating rookie and A ball is very tricky. He has a 56:4 K:BB in 44.1 innings, which is absurd, and I agree with your evaluation of his effortless delivery. It's about staying healthy enough to check the boxes. I don't have much doubt he would check all those boxes if we turned off injuries, but just needing Tommy John surgery next year would push back his ETA by two years. I suppose you could argue he should be up by Cam Caminiti (ATL) or Braylon Doughty (CLE), but I gave them more credit for the amount of time they logged at Single-A, and I think Caminiti has flashed a higher ceiling than even Chourio. If I had to guess, Chourio will be in that 50-100 range around the late-May update next year, but it could happen faster, and it may not happen at all if he gets hurt.

Aaaron Stoltenberg: At this time next year, give me your top five overall and top SP prospect...

So late August 2026, here's my projected top 5:

1. Konnor Griffin, SS, PIT

2. Jesus Made, SS/3B/2B, MIL

3. Leo De Vries, SS/2B, ATH

4. Luis Pena, 2B/OF, MIL

5. Edward Florentino, OF, PIT

Honorable mention: Roch Cholowsky (UCLA), Bryce Rainer (DET), Eduardo Quintero (LAD)

No. 1 SP prospect as of late August 2026: Kade Anderson (SEA), but I'm much less confident trying to project who the top pitching prospect will be a year from now. Jonah Tong (NYM) is now my No. 1 pitching prospect and he wouldn't have been anyone's guess for that title before the season.

Magee: Which prospects outside your top 50 could be top five or 10 this time next year?

For this question, I always exclude pitchers and most older position players. I'll also add that next year's draft class is loaded at the top, and there could be multiple 2026 draftees who debut in the top 10. Here are my nine favorite post top-50 candidates to be in the top 10 a year from now:

54. Charlie Condon (COL)

71. Alfredo Duno (CIN)

72. Emil Morales (LAD)

73. Andrew Fischer (MIL)

78. Cam Collier (CIN)

79. Gavin Fien (TEX)

80. Caleb Bonemer (CHW)

81. Juneiker Caceres (CLE)

82. Josuar Gonzalez (SF)

Hsampson: Who is your favorite Dodgers prospect outside the top 100?

Definitely Charles Davalan. I know I've got Alex Freeland ranked ahead, but I'm a huge Davalan fan long term, he's just a year or two behind Freeland. Davalan is a classic better in real-life than fantasy prospect who fits best in left field or at second base due to a fringe-average arm, but who could be a 20-25 HR, 10-20 SB leadoff hitter. My only knock on Davalan is he might sit against lefties, at least early on.

GordyMeyers: Can you describe the differences in your evaluation of Cam Smith, Noelvi Marte, and Coby Mayo? Besides Mayo being at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, with no speed, they're all similar age and having up-and-down batting seasons, but learning. Does Smith have a clear edge by doing this in his first year which the other two did not? Or could Marte and Mayo catch up or even pass Smith soon? If not, what does Smith have/do that would keep him ahead?

This is a great question, and I hope to get more into Smith specifically on my podcast two weeks from now. As you said, while they're all close in age (Smith is over a year younger than Marte and Mayo), they have such different backgrounds and experience. 

Marte is the guy I'd take right now in dynasty even though he might not be first on the last update. He's the easiest guy to analyze; bad defender, bad approach, but he makes enough contact and hits the ball really hard. He plays in a favorable park and likes to run enough to project for 15-20 steals next year -- 5-10 more than I'd project from Smith. 

In 2024, Smith's second and final year of college, he was vastly improved across the board and was seemingly getting better as a hitter throughout the year. He was then the best prospect from the 2024 draft class in 2025 spring training and the first hitter from his class to reach the majors, which would have been an unthinkable proposition prior to his pro debut. So now he's a below league-average hitter (89 wRC+) in 433 plate appearances as a 22-year-old in his first full pro season, his production has been on the decline since mid-July, and his playing time is slipping away after the Astros added reinforcements at the deadline. From the 2024 draft, I'd definitely take Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns and Konnor Griffin over Smith at this point in dynasty, as I'm sure everyone would, and I'd take Jac Caglianone, but after that, I think I'd still take Smith. Nothing would surprise me from Smith in 2026, barring him just not being good enough to play, and I think it's understandable for him to be wearing down at this point in the year after going from Florida State to the big leagues in less than a year. 

Mayo would be last for me because he's the worst athlete of the three and least accomplished of the three and he's 14 months older than Smith. Even so, Mayo could hit 25 homers next year and push back into the top 125 range, so I like all three to some extent.