This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Ten games are featured on Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. It's a slate loaded with pitching options in positive matchups, though only two come in priced in five figures with an additional six at $9,000 or greater.
Curiously, odds aren't yet available for Dodgers-Athletics (which figures to have the slate's highest total), Yankees-Mariners or Rays-Blue Jays, but the available numbers highlight how deep the pitching can be, as no game has a run total higher than 8.5. The Cubs (-240) and Mets (-240) are the slate's biggest favorites, and while we don't want to chase wins, these are two teams whose starters will be of great interest. Rain is of some concern in New York and Atlanta, while wind could give us a boost in Los Angeles and San Francisco.
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Pitching
Kodai Senga, NYM vs. PIT ($9,800): Perhaps Senga is due some regression, as his minute 1.16 ERA comes with a 4.24 xFIP, but that seemingly won't come against the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks 29th with a 78 wRC+ off lefties, coming with just a .107 ISO and .286 wOBA. They aren't striking out much at 21.8 percent, but that's not Senga's game, as he's fanning just 8.2 per inning after almost a 2x higher rate a year ago prior to injury. We're looking for bulk clean innings, a win and quality start in this soft matchup. Rain is the bigger concern than the Pirates offense.
Ben Brown, CHC vs. MIA ($8,300): Brown profiles opposite of Senga, in that his 4.95 ERA comes with a 3.54 xFIP, so this matchup with a light Miami offense suggests he can progress towards the mean. Miami ranks 24th with a below average 92 wRC+, adding a .308 wOBA and .139 ISO. They strike out at a 23.6 percent clip, far from elite, and Brown is averaging 10.9 per nine. He has struggled at home, and will issue bulk walks, but I question whether the Marlins will have patience and even if they do, are they capable of taking advantage?
Jack Leiter, TEX vs. COL ($7,700): There are a plethora of safer options than Leiter, all of which are higher priced, but if you're in a multi-entry tournament, it makes sense to have some share of Leiter simply based on the matchup. The Rockies stink, with a league-worst 69 wRC+, .290 wOBA, .144 ISO and 25.8 percent K rate. They also walk only 7.4 percent of the time, which has plagued Leiter. His form isn't great, he has no quality starts on the year and has allowed 12 runs over his last 13.0 innings. But prior to that, he had two games with 30+ FDP. The matchup, paired with some run support, suggest Leiter could get back there.
Top Targets
With wind blowing out, building around a Dodger star is where we start, but given their prices, it's an either/or proposition. A's starter Jeffrey Springs doesn't have targetable splits, but Shohei Ohtani ($4,600) and Freddie Freeman ($4,400) have incredible numbers against lefties. Ohtani sits with a .446 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and .300 ISO, while Freeman slashes .420/172/.296.
I am an Atlanta fan, and watch them nightly. I don't trust a thing they're doing at the plate, and Tuesday is a potential revenge narrative for former teammate Michael Soroka, but the team has a 6.0 implied run total and are priced for us to consider a stack. Marcell Ozuna ($3,400) broke out of a power drought last night, while Matt Olson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,300) both have high ceilings.
Bargain Bats
Will Smith ($3,200) offers a cheaper top of the order entry into the Dodgers lineup if you like a star in another game. He's got three multi-hit games in his last five, while posting a .537 wOBA, 250 wRC+ and .400 ISO off southpaws.
Sliding form from Kyle Tucker ($4,400) gives me pause in paying up for him, but Marlins' starter Valente Bellozo is allowing a .436 wOBA and .995 OPS to lefties, so it's a good spot. Or we can pivot to Michael Busch ($2,900) and still get shares of the Cubs offense.
Nick Kurtz ($2,200) gets permanent placement in this space until the power comes and his salary rises. Dodgers' starter Landon Knack has been more vulnerable to lefties, allowing a .359 wOBA against .247 to righties. Kurtz is hitless in two of his last four, but still has posted at least 6.0 fantasy points in seven of eight. He has a seemingly safe 3x floor at this low price, even if he's not yet elite.
Stacks to Consider
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Rangers vs. Kyle Freeland (Rockies): Wyatt Langford ($3,400), Jonah Heim ($2,700), Sam Haggerty ($2,000)
The Rangers have the slate's second-highest implied run total at 5.7, yet they aren't hitting consistently which gives us some values, albeit without targetable splits. The targetable numbers come from Freeland however, as he's allowing a .400 wOBA and .914 OPS to right-handed hitters. Langord anchors this unit and has a decent enough .363 wOBA, .233 ISO and 136 wRC+. Heim and Haggerty get my nods as secondary pieces simply due to likely lineup construction as this probably slots as a 1-2-3 stack. Adolis Garcia ($3,000) is in play for more thump potential, and Jake Burger ($2,100) will likely have a low roster rate so soon after his return to the majors.
Padres vs. Jose Soriano (Angels): Jackson Merrill ($4,300), Fernando Tatis ($4,000), Jake Cronenworth ($3,200)
This stack is massively expensive, and to pay this premium will take you out of the Dodger star market. Merrill and Tatis appear worth paying up for, however. Merrill has an obscene .601 wOBA, 295 wRC+ and .235 ISO off righties, albeit in a small sample size. He's also 14-for-23 since returning from injury. Tatis sits at .453/196/,294 and Cronenworth .421/175/.207. It's not a traditional lineup stack, so if you want some additional salary relief, lower ceiling and higher floor, try Luis Arraez ($2,700) as the third piece.
