Mound Musings: The 2025 First Year Player Draft Edition

Draft day always brings an infusion of new, exciting arms into professional baseball, and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. I'm not crazy about having draft day and the Future's Game on the same weekend. I'd prefer to spread the fun out across multiple days. However, as usual, I settled in the other night with iced tea and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers I wanted to check in on. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night, right? 

Obviously, this article is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but some of the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you might think. Maybe the biggest obstacle to assessing pitchers in this draft is that ever-looming injury factor. It seems like all the top college arms just underwent Tommy John surgery.

Some General Observations from Draft Day

There is no generational talent like Paul Skenes in this draft, but I have a feeling the overall pitching tools are better than usual. And, what a mix. There are several lefties — always a hot commodity. We have your power arms, and pitchers with that rare talent to fool hitters with off-speed stuff like a well-developed change-up, and there are college guys and high school kids scattered throughout.

Okay, let's take a look at the cream of the 2025 draft class.

Higher-Ceiling Arms To Add to Your Watch List

• Kade Anderson (Mariners – 3rd overall) – I was surprised when Anderson didn't go first overall. I was even more surprised when he wasn't even the first pitcher off the board. He ended up going third overall, and it looks like the Mariners were more than happy to get him (they had his signature on a lucrative contract within an hour of picking him). Anderson went to LSU, which is where young men go to hone their skills on the way to becoming professional baseball players. He had Tommy John surgery in 2022 but looked fully recovered this season as he cruised, striking out double digits in seven of his last nine starts. He's still a kid (a draft-eligible sophomore who is still just age 21), but he pitches much older. A great fastball, with a curveball, a slider, and maybe most importantly, a ready-for-action change-up make up his advanced repertoire. IMHO, Seattle stole one.
• Tyler Bremner (Angels – 2nd overall) – Now we take a look at the first pitcher off the board. Most lists had him middle or even second half of the round, but the Angels took him second overall. I actually had him as my second pitcher based on his overall makeup. I have a hunch saving a few bucks was also involved. The UC Santa Barbara alum probably has the best change-up in the draft class, and astute readers already know how important that is to me. Besides the change, Bremner has a well-rounded repertoire with a mid-90s fastball and a solid slider. He throws everything with a nice, clean motion, meaning he typically throws strikes. All that probably adds up to the athletic right-hander being on the fast track to the majors. He just needs to show he can handle a pro starter's workload.
• Seth Hernandez (Pirates – 6th overall) – I usually try to find college pitchers to put at the top of the draft-class watch list under the assumption they're likely to be closer to the majors and, being older, they're easier to project with regard to ceiling, but I was prepared to make an exception with Hernandez. You've heard me say this before: he pitches older. He's only 19, but he already owns a full spread of pitches including a fastball that touches triple digits, and (here it is again) a wipeout change-up. His breaking pitches will need to improve, but I'm pretty comfortable in saying they will. He actually has a pretty smooth delivery, but throwing with big velocity is a health risk. He has signed with Pittsburgh.
• Liam Doyle (Cardinals – 5th overall) – Doyle was the fifth player off the board and the third pitcher. There's that pitching depth I was talking about. A southpaw with a huge arm, he is the definition of max effort. The guy comes out of his shoes on just about every pitch. The fastball is his go-to — he throws it about two thirds of the time — which leads me into reliever territory. But, think about this, how good must a fastball be when you throw it that often, yet it gets you this high on the list? Yep, it's that good. Beware, though, he probably fell a bit in draft standing after suffering through a bout of wildness late this season. He walked nine in his last 21 innings at Tennessee. Interestingly, that was his third college in three seasons. I'm not really sure why, but that is also a bit of a red flag for me. He signed with St. Louis shortly after being chosen.
• Kruz Schoolcraft (Padres – 25th overall) – Here's another college arm with a pretty good skillset, but Schoolcraft is going to an organization that specializes in developing young arms. I think he's a bit of a sleeper. For a big lefty (6'8" and 230 pounds), he displays pretty good command of a solid arsenal featuring a mid-90s fastball and a crisp splitter that he uses as a pseudo change-up. Going 25th overall might even be a little misleading, as pitching in Oregon meant he frequently overmatched the hitters he was facing.

There were a few other pitchers worth monitoring, like Jamie Arnold (11th overall to the A's), who has a delivery I just can't get used to, Gage Wood (26th overall to the Phillies), who surprised me a bit by going that late. Riley Quick (36th overall to the Twins) and Wood look like relievers to me, and Zachary Root (40th) overall to the Dodgers), who is raw but has a pretty high ceiling.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings

• The Pirates are not expected to skip any of Paul Skenes' starts in the second half but will likely have him throw a few shorter outings as a means to manage his workload. When you pitch as well as he does, innings can pile up in a hurry. Too bad the Pirates aren't really likely to provide him with more run support.
• The Orioles can't get their top young arm back on the mound. Grayson Rodriguez experienced an elbow injury during spring training, then had a lat injury during his rehab. Now, he's again suffering from elbow issues. He's been shut down for at least a week, and no timeline for his return has been announced.
• Indicators continue to provide warnings regarding the Cubs' Shota Imanaga. Too many hard-hit balls and a higher than normal strand rate combined with fringy walk and home run rates suggest trouble could be ahead, but he keeps dodging the bullet. You can't argue with success, but he does make me skittish.
• The Red Sox announced they have shut down Tanner Houck "indefinitely" with a flexor strain that won't heal. This probably assures a rotation spot for the mediocre Richard Fitts long term, or forces Boston to actively dive into the trade market for a better starting pitcher over the next couple weeks.
• I really expected Washington's MacKenzie Gore to settle into a huge second half, but his first start after the break only made his ERA huge. He was shelled for eight runs, retiring only seven hitters. He was behind in the count way too often, forcing himself to groove pitches over the heart of the plate.

Endgame Odyssey

The Cubs have settled on their primary closer, at least for now. Daniel Palencia is doing an adequate job, primarily because he is throwing strikes, something that has been a problem for him in the past. The Nationals Kyle Finnegan is probably available, but he is failing to increase his value when pitching in non-save situations. He's apparently one of those guys who loses focus when pitching in less valuable innings. Pete Fairbanks of the Rays logged his first save in nearly a month last weekend. He hasn't pitched badly, but Tampa Bay isn't providing many save chances. Miami's Anthony Bender has notched a couple of saves in July as the team keeps fantasy owners guessing. I do believe he's the best option, but Ronny Henriquez and Calvin Faucher remain in the mix. The Dodgers removed closer Tanner Scott from a game when he suffered forearm discomfort. Kirby Yates finished out the save. With Scott scheduled to miss time, Yates and lefty Alex Vesia might serve as a closer committee.

Next week

The trade deadline is upon us. Let's look at some trade repercussions (and possibilities). This is normally a very active time, however this year it has been less active. My guess is it's twofold. First, teams can't keep pitchers healthy, meaning they often are not good trade candidates. And secondly, a broader playoff picture means teams are less likely to be comfortable themselves as "buyers" or "sellers" as the deadline approaches.