Top MLB Betting Picks for September 4: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 3-0 ( +2.65 units)
Season 123-131-2 (-11.50 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Thursday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
As teams fall out of the playoff race, we will start to see inflated moneylines.
Road Favorites - N/A
Home Favorites - Royals -160 vs Angels, Twins -150 vs White Sox
Totals - Royals/Angels 9.5, Dodgers/Pirates 7.0
Line Movement -
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets and Predictions
Freddy Peralta is making a strong case for the National League Cy Young award. While Paul Skenes is probably still the winner, the Brewers are clearly the best team in the NL. Peralta's dominance at home is the key for where I want to go in this game.
Going under with the Phillies offense against a right-handed pitcher is tough, but the Phillies mainly crush at home. Peralta's home stats are mind blowing with 14 starts and just 16 earned runs allowed. He has hit this prop in 11 out of 14 home starts with only the Cubs, Pirates, and Marlins getting 2 or more runs against him.
Best Bet: Phillies UNDER 1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
The Pirates are playing much better baseball than their reputation suggests, and they have taken both games in this series. Both teams are 15-15 in their last 30 games. but the Pirates have been a .500 team since firing Derek Shelton. They are also 11-4 in their last 15 games with some impressive results - 2-0 vs Dodgers, 2-1 vs Red Sox, 2-2 vs Cardinals, 3-0 vs Rockies, 2-1 vs Jays,
The Dodgers are just 22-28 in their last 50 games and 10-17 in their last 27 road games.
Paul Skenes is the best pitcher in baseball and we are getting him at plus money at home. He has NEVER been a home dog and the Pirates are 8-2 in his last 10 starts including 7 in a row.
The Dodgers reputation and tax is out of control when it comes to betting odds. Blake Snell has looked good in his return, but the Pirates have been the better team and have a pitcher to match him. Let's not forget to add in the Dodgers UNDER 0.5 runs F3 as this has been an auto play with Skenes all season.
Best Bet: Pirates ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +107); Dodgers UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
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Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Prediction
Even without key pieces in the Guardians bullpen, I still do not want to go full game against them in this spot. The Rays are on a hot streak winning 6 in a row, 8-2 last 10, and 13-7 last 20. The Guardians are one of the worst offenses in baseball and are 6-12 in their last 18. Their road record is awful going 1-7 over their last 8.
Logan Allen has been bad all season, but even worse in his most recent starts with a 10.64 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Ryan Pepiot has been better at home by about 1 run on his ERA.
The Rays are -145 on the ML full game, but -175 F5 so I wanted to lay -0.5 run to get the odds down to under -130.
Best Bet: Rays -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
- Phillies UNDER 1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Pirates ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +107)
- Dodgers UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Rays -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
