Mound Musings: Looking Back, and Looking Ahead

Over the next three weeks, I will, as in previous seasons, take a look at some arms who have provided us with a large enough sample to get a feel for what they could provide a fantasy owner right out of the box next season. This week I'll look at some National League names, and next week we'll visit the American League. Then, in the third part of the series, I'll post my annual elite pitching prospect list, with arms that have yet to arrive, or have only given us a brief peak at what they might offer in the future. This is a fun time to start plotting a strategy for next season. Keep in mind, the pitchers listed below are at various steps along the developmental timeline, and the goal is to find arms capable of taking a significant step forward from where they are now. Let's take a look …

Potential Breakout Arms for 2016 – National League

Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets) – You might ask how Syndergaard qualifies for a 2016 breakout list. After all, he's broken out pretty well this season. I'm listing, and putting him at the top of the list, because I don't think he has scratched the surface. So far, he's logged 122 innings, with 129 strikeouts, a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.31 ERA. That's not bad. However, the Mets are reining in his innings (as much as they can in a pennant race), and his secondary stuff is still improving. His 97 mph fastball is a major problem for opposing hitters, but it's going to get worse when he can more consistently hit his spots with the soft stuff. Look for his strikeout rate to go up, and his BABIP to go down as hitters find themselves even more off-balance which will impact both his WHIP and ERA. As good as Matt Harvey is, Syndergaard could end up being even better.

Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies) – He's already logged 170 innings (across three levels) so he has a right to tail off a bit as the season winds down, but that hasn't really happened. Nola is 6-2 with a 3.56 ERA, and he's doing that for a team that, quite frankly, isn't very good. I don't see Nola as a true ace, he profiles as more of a number two who could eat up a lot of innings. On the Phillies' staff, that's an ace, and then some. His strikeout rate will probably level out a bit below one per inning, but he won't walk many hitters with his command, and that will keep the baserunners down. Just keep in mind, the major leagues is a series of adjustments, some counter-adjustments, and more adjustments, so as opposing teams build a book on him, there could be some shaky stretches, but he has the mound presence to put them back on their heels.

Patrick Corbin (Arizona Diamondbacks) – Corbin is another who has enjoyed a pretty impressive breakout (in 2013 when he was 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA), but that was a couple of years ago, and sometimes people forget. He missed all of 2014 and over half of 2015 while coming back from Tommy John surgery, and since returning, the Diamondbacks have been understandably cautious as they let him build strength without overloading him. Despite being on a pretty strict pitch limit of 90 or so per outing, Corbin has been able to average almost six innings per start. His command has been good, and getting better, and his velocity is actually up a tick from his pre-surgery days. He's only likely to log about 100 innings this year, so they may not unhook the leash completely next season, but he is showing a lot of encouraging aspects to his game. With his skill set, expect him to establish himself at the top of their rotation.

Raisel Iglesias (Cincinnati Reds) – Before this past Tuesday, Iglesias had strung together eight starts of six or more innings, allowing more than three runs just once, and striking out double-digits in the last three of those outings. The 25-year-old Cuban defector broke camp with the Reds, but was soon sent down to get back into game shape. Even though he hadn't pitched recently, the Reds ponied up $27 million to ink him to a seven-year contract so they saw some decent upside. He came back from Triple-A, and stepped right back into the rotation where he has looked comfortable. He features a good low-mid 90's fastball, and a very impressive breaking ball. The change-up is still a work in progress so he can be a bit prone to home runs, and he sometimes has a tough time with lefty swingers, but he flashes a very useful change at times, and it's only going to get better. His 4.18 ERA isn't going to send many fantasy owners scurrying, but he's better than that number might suggest. Quietly take a look.

Daniel Hudson (Arizona Diamondbacks) – It's generally difficult to come up with more than one pitcher per team to add to a list like this, but I feel Hudson deserves some serious thought. In fact, I actually considered a third Arizona hurler for inclusion here (Rubby De La Rosa). Hudson is another of those guys who already had something of a breakout, but his is even more ancient history. He went down in 2012, and missed virtually all of 2013 and 2014 following not one, but two Tommy John surgeries. Hudson has worked out of the bullpen exclusively this year, but I don't think that's where he's likely to end up. The Diamondbacks have simply used that role to closely monitor his workload. The velocity was back almost immediately as he pretty easily tipped the gun at 95-97 mph, but he has seen his command come and go. Once he moves into the rotation, his velocity with probably drop back to pre-TJ levels, but that is plenty. There is an obvious injury risk, but if healthy I think he could better his 2011 breakout season in the desert (16-12, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.49 ERA). That wouldn't be too shabby.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

If Yovani Gallardo could throw strikes a bit more consistently, he could be a nice boost for fantasy teams. He is what I call a "five inning starter" and has been for quite a while. He misses out on some wins despite being backed up by a solid offense, and he really suffers in quality start leagues because of his high pitch counts.

Don't look now, but Cardinals' aceAdam Wainwrightis throwing off a mound and it looks like he could be back before the regular season ends. He's been out virtually all year with a torn Achilles tendon, but his rehab is progressing. Unfortunately, he is unlikely to be back in time to help most fantasy teams this season.

It looks like a breakout candidate for this year, Nathan Eovaldi, might be shut down for the rest of the season at a minimum. Hopefully it's nothing more than inflammation in his elbow so he can come back fairly soon, and at least be ready for next spring. He has one of the best fastballs around, and the off-speed stuff is coming, albeit slowly.

The Nationals have decided to moveJoe Rossto the bullpen. Ross flashed some nice upside while he was relatively fresh, but he's now up to about 150 innings, and has appeared to be out of gas in each of his last few starts. Tanner Roark will step into the rotation, but the takeaway is the look into the future Ross provided. Keep him in mind.

Daniel Norris is coming along quicker than expected from an oblique injury, and could possibly return to the Detroit rotation before the end of the season. The Tigers may not opt to rush him, but I really think he is a key piece in their future, and I'd like to see more of him even if he isn't all that likely to be a fantasy factor before next year.

Some pitchers can get in a groove and enjoy extended stretches of success, and just as quickly lose it and go through rough spells. Meet, J.A. Happ. Good results early this season in Seattle, then a train wreck. He's dealt to the Pirates, and now he's back in synch. He actually has the tools to succeed if he ever develops consistency.

The Endgame Odyssey:

The Glen Perkins situation in Minnesota has become something of a worry long term. He has now suffered neck/back problems late in two consecutive seasons. When he's healthy, he's a highly effective closer, but the Twins seem to have had a very good reason to add Kevin Jepsen. In Oakland, Sean Doolittle appears to be fully recovered and ready to finish out the year as their closer. I still don't see Bruce Rondon being a lock to close for Detroit moving forward. He still doesn't have the command it will take to enjoy success long term, but they don't have many internal options. A little off-season shopping could be on the horizon. Brad Ziegler was knocked around in a couple of outings, but word is that was related to a minor ankle injury. He is reportedly healthy again and remains the closer in Arizona. One of the more pleasant surprises (there are usually a couple each year) in the new closer's realm would have to be the Ranger's Shawn Tolleson. He's not totally prototypical, but he seems very comfortable in the role and has a good chance to maintain the job next season and even beyond. The Braves have had Arodys Vizcaino auditioning for their closer's gig next season, and the returns have been generally positive. He could still use a bit better command, and he will need to show that he can stay healthy. But he is putting himself in a good spot for 2016.