This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Iowa State at Baylor - Under 132
Two of the best defensive teams in the country facing off is a great start for an under bet. Iowa State ranks 10th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, while Baylor's defense ranks 11th. The other notable reason for taking the under is Iowa State's offense, which has struggled mightily during conference play. Against Big 12 opponents, Iowa State's offense ranks last in the conference in efficiency, rebounding rate, free-throw attempt rate and blocks allowed rate. Iowa State is coming off a game in which it scored just 36 points at home against Oklahoma State, a team with an elite defense, comparable to Baylor's. As bad as the recent game went, this kind of offensive performance against a top-notch defense is nothing new. Iowa State traveled to Texas on Feb. 5 and scored just 41 points in a loss. It's possible Baylor's offense will sabotage our cause at the end of the game, but either way, I like our chances at a low-scoring affair given the strengths of each team.
Georgetown (+13) at Xavier
It's now or never for Georgetown. The Hoyas are 0-18 against Big East teams this year, and now it's the final game of the regular season. Motivation is often a weak reason for making a pick, but this is no ordinary circumstance. Nobody ever wants to finish with a zero in the win column. Psychology aside, the Hoyas actually have played competitive basketball the last couple weeks, relatively speaking, coming within nine points of several of the best teams in the conference: Seton Hall, Connecticut and Villanova. Xavier doesn't come close to any of those teams, so Georgetown has a good shot at keeping the game close. Xavier is in freefall, losing seven of its last eight games, making it hard to believe it can cover a double-digit spread against a conference foe. Xavier has only beaten one Big East opponent by 13 or more points — Butler, all the way back on Jan. 7. Georgetown, meanwhile, has come within 11 points of its opponent in each of its last six games. The Hoyas probably won't win, but either way, recent trends suggest they'll likely keep it within single digits.
Boise State (+3) at Colorado State
On the surface, this is an even matchup, with Boise State ranked 29th in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency ratings, and Colorado State not far behind at No. 31. Boise State, however, has the distinction of being the best rebounding team in the Mountain West, recording the highest offensive and defensive rebounding rates during conference play. Colorado State has the 18th-lowest offensive rebounding rate in the nation, giving the Broncos the advantage. Boise State is also the more balanced team overall, ranking second in both offensive and defensive efficiency during conference play. Colorado State has a strong offensive attack, topping the conference in efficiency. Its defense isn't nearly as strong, ranking fifth. These teams clashed Feb. 13, in what was a thrilling three-point overtime victory for Colorado State. Boise State was in control most of the second half in that game but couldn't close it out. The rematch likely will be just as close. For that reason, take the three points.
Colorado (+2) at Utah
Fresh off its epic 16-point victory against Arizona, Colorado is undoubtedly playing its best basketball of the season. The Buffaloes have won six of their last seven games, including a five-point victory against Utah on Feb. 12, so they're certainly hitting their stride at the right time. Since conference season started, Colorado ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while Utah ranks ninth in offense and 11th in defense. Furthermore, Colorado has seven more conference victories than Utah, including wins over Washington State, Oregon and the aforementioned Arizona. Utah, in comparison, hasn't beaten any Pac-12 opponent with a winning conference record. Colorado might be the road team, but it's also the better team, and one that's red hot. I'll gladly take it and a couple of points in this matchup.
