This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We tip off February with some Pac-12 After Dark action. Here are my predictions for a pair of notable games on Thursday's college hoops slate.
Stanford 
at Arizona State 
After getting swept in its road trip against the Oregon teams last week, Arizona State has now lost four of five games, erasing most of the optimism it garnered after starting the conference season at 4-0. Despite the recent losses, the Sun Devils do two things well that should help them defend their home court on Thursday.
First, Arizona State is among the best defensive teams in the Pac-12, recording the third-best defensive efficiency rating during conference play. Perhaps more importantly, the Sun Devils have displayed elite perimeter defense, holding Pac-12 opponents to 34 percent on shots from behind the arc, the second-lowest percentage allowed in the conference. This is key against Stanford because the Cardinal is the best long-range shooting team in the league, making over 45 percent from behind the arc against Pac-12 opponents. Given this absurdly high conversion percentage, it's no surprise to see that Stanford also ranks first in percentage of points off three-pointers among Pac-12 teams, so if Arizona State's perimeter defense can play like its usual self, then it can effectively take away Stanford's primary weapon.
The other area where Arizona State excels is turnovers. Since the conference season tipped off, Arizona State ranks first in both offense and defensive turnover percentage in the Pac-12. At the same time, Stanford has struggled in this area, posting the worst defensive turnover percentage and fourth-worst offensive percentage. Neither is good, but the latter could spell disaster as it has to deal with a Sun Devil squad that is elite at forcing their opponents to make mistakes. Given these numbers, it's seemingly a lock that Arizona State should win the turnover margin at the very least.
These two teams already played each other in Maples Pavilion at the end of December, and Arizona State won by a final score of 76-73. When looking at the box score, it's not surprising to see that Arizona State was plus-four in turnovers, likely the difference in the final score. Given how these teams match up against each other, I'm betting the Sun Devils will earn the season sweep when all is said and done.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona State -1
Oregon State 
at UCLA 
Oregon State had an impressive showing when the Arizona schools came to visit last week. The Beavers triumphantly took down the mighty Arizona Wildcats and followed that up by thumping Arizona State by 13 points. The two wins were badly needed as Oregon State had lost five straight games before its homestand. That said, things won't get any easier as now it has to travel to southern California, and while the opponents present challenges, simply playing outside of Gill Coliseum has been a massive hurdle for the Beavers. They remain winless away from home, losing all seven games. The home-away splits are inevitably stark for any college basketball team, but even more so in Oregon State's case. At home this season, the Beavers are winning by nine points per game while scoring 77 points per game, but then when they travel, the numbers plummet, losing by 19 points per game while scoring 60 per game.
UCLA was in a similar boat not too long ago, losing 10 of 12 games against D1 teams at one point in the season. The only two wins in that brutal stretch came against UC Riverside, a one-point win at home no less, and at Oregon State. The Bruins have since played better, winning three of their last four, including two road wins against Arizona State and USC.
On paper, UCLA has a highly favorable matchup against Oregon State. The Bruins once again have a top-notch defense, recording the best defensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during league play, and it's especially effective at causing turnovers, ranking fourth in the conference in that department. The latter will likely come into play because Oregon State has had trouble with giving the ball away throughout the entire season, ranking 285th among all D1 teams and third-worst in the Pac-12.
The Bruins also have an edge at the other end of the court for a couple of reasons. UCLA has been extremely effective on the offensive glass since the conference season tipped off, posting the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Pac-12. Oregon State, meanwhile, hasn't been great at securing defensive rebounds, ranking 215th in the nation in that category, so UCLA should see several put-back opportunities on Thursday. Also, from a bigger-picture perspective, scoring points is by far UCLA's biggest weakness this season, and Oregon State has the worst defensive efficiency in the conference during league play, so the Bruins should be able to get more open looks than usual.
This game is all about UCLA. Even when it was at rock bottom, it's easy to see why it was able to beat Oregon State on the road just over a month ago. For those who like trends, I should note that the Bruins have covered the spread in their last four straight games. For all these various reasons, I'm going with UCLA in this matchup.
Additionally, UCLA is an 'under' magnet. During the conference season, UCLA has the slowest pace, best defense, and worst offense among all Pac-12 teams. We truly couldn't ask for a better recipe for an 'under' bet. Given these incidents, it's no surprise to find that the under has hit in six of its last eight games. I'm also betting on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: UCLA -10.5 and Under 125.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Arizona State -1
- UCLA -10.5
- Oregon State at UCLA - Under 125.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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