This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate brings us our customary Big Ten conference action and another round of Pac-12 After Dark. Here are my predictions for a few games on Thursday's slate.
Northwestern 
at Rutgers 
Northwestern is proving to be as tough as any team in the Big Ten. The Wildcats are currently fourth in the conference standings and have already defeated Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska, all the top teams in the league save for Wisconsin. Northwestern lost its last two games on the road in overtime at Purdue and Minnesota, so the Wildcats are just a couple of shots away from second place in the conference.
Rutgers, meanwhile, has won its last three games, but it's struggled throughout the season otherwise. The Scarlett Knights collected their best win of the season this past Saturday when they knocked off Wisconsin for their fifth conference victory. The win came at home, naturally, although home-court advantage has generally not provided much help to them. Rutgers has already lost three home games to conference opponents, all by at least eight points.
In looking at how this matchup might play out, the Wildcats have an upper hand for a couple of reasons. First, when Northwestern has the ball, one of its best strengths can completely neutralize Rutgers' best defensive skill. The Wildcats are among the most careful teams in the nation, ranking ninth in offensive turnover percentage and boasting the best mark in the Big Ten during conference play. This is critical because the Scarlett Knights specialize in causing turnovers, logging the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten.
Second, we have a similar advantage going in the other direction. Rutgers has been the worst offensive team in the Big Ten by a mile, ranking last in the league in efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Aside from the terrible shooting numbers, the Scarlett Knights have also been sloppy with the ball, posting the fourth-worst turnover percentage in the Big Ten. Northwestern hasn't been spectacular defensively, but the one thing it does incredibly well is cause turnovers, ranking third in the conference in defensive turnover percentage.
These two teams met last year at the same location, and Northwestern won 65-53 in a game that saw the Wildcats pull away in the second half and cruise to an easy victory. Several players who were on the court last year will once again play on Wednesday, so this result perhaps holds a bit more weight than usual. Either way, I'm betting that the better overall team will walk away with the win when it's all said and done. I'm taking Northwestern in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern +4
Stanford 
at Washington 
This is a great matchup for Stanford. The Cardinal defeated the Huskies by a double-digit margin, 90-80, when these two teams met at Maples Pavilion a few weeks ago, and it's easy to see why.
Stanford has firmly established itself as one of the best shooting teams in the nation, and it's only gotten hotter against league competition. For the season, the Cardinal are making 39 percent of shots from behind the arc, the seventh-highest percentage among all D1 teams. Since the conference season tipped off, Stanford is knocking down 43 percent from three-point range, unsurprisingly the best mark in the Pac-12. This is an incredibly useful skill in any game, but it's even more effective against Washington because the Huskies have gotten burned from the perimeter throughout the conference season. Washington has allowed Pac-12 opponents to make 38 percent of shots from behind the arc, the second-highest percentage allowed in the conference. This type of vulnerability does not bode well against a Stanford team that has scored a league-high 40 percent of its total points off three-pointers during the conference season.
At the other end of the court, Stanford hasn't been quite as sharp, but it's still had plenty of defensive highlights throughout the season. In two of its road games, the Cardinal held UCLA to 53 points and held Arizona State to 62 points. It's also held Utah to 73 points and USC to 68 points, demonstrating solid defensive play in numerous instances, even if it hasn't been great defensively when looking at the overall numbers.
The rematch between these two teams will likely have a small margin when they clash on Thursday, but I'm betting the outcome will remain the same. Thanks to its elite shooting numbers, I like Stanford's odds of pulling off the road win. I'm going with the Cardinal in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford +4
California 
at Washington State 
These two teams played each other just a few weeks ago at Haas Pavilion, and California emerged victorious in overtime, 81-75, after the game ended 68-68 in regulation. This is the only game that Washington State has lost since early January, winning eight of its last nine games, so revenge will undoubtedly be on its mind when it hosts the rematch on Thursday.
It's not readily apparent, but California has been a defensive-oriented team in recent months. The overall efficiency numbers don't exactly show this, but since the conference season tipped off, California ranks eighth in the league in offensive efficiency and fifth in defensive efficiency. Similarly, in the same period, the Golden Bears ranked 11th in effective field goal percentage and fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed. They're also crashing the defensive glass, ranking second in the league in defensive rebounding percentage compared to eighth on the offensive side.
Washington State is also a defensive-oriented team, although it's played defense at a consistently high level throughout the season. The Cougars rank 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency among all D1 teams, and third in the Pac-12 during conference play, so this is a stout group any way you look at it. They also rank first in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed, further underscoring this strength.
Additionally, both teams also prefer playing at a slow, controlled pace. California ranks eighth in offensive tempo during league play, while Washington comes in at tenth, giving us a good chance at seeing a fewer number of possessions. Given how the first game played out, and the strengths and styles of each team in recent weeks, I'm betting we'll have a low-scoring game on Thursday. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 140
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Northwestern +4
- Stanford +4
- California at Washington State - Under 140
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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