This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Conference action heats up on Tuesday as many pivotal matchups once again line the college hoops slate. Here are my predictions for a few notable games.
Marquette 
at Butler 
The Golden Eagles are soaring, entering Tuesday with a seven-game win streak, the ninth-longest in the nation. Marquette hasn't lost since it inexplicably fell at home to Butler just over a month ago, so the Golden Eagles are undoubtedly ready to serve revenge on Butler's home court.
Butler, meanwhile, has won five of eight games since defeating Marquette, although it easily could be four, as it narrowly survived two overtime periods against Villanova a few weeks ago. Either way, Butler is proving to be a competent team despite losing five of six games during a stretch at the turn of the new year.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, Marquette has a massive advantage on offense. Since the conference season tipped off, the Golden Eagles have recorded the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big East, while the Bulldogs have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating. A glance at the shooting percentages further affirms this edge. Marquette is making 56 percent of its shots inside the arc against league opponents, while Butler is allowing Big East foes to make 53 percent of two-point shots, the third-worst percentage allowed in the conference.
In breaking down the matchup at the other end of the court, Marquette doesn't have the same sizable advantage, but it still has an edge nonetheless. The Bulldogs have put up plenty of points, ranking third in the Big East in efficiency during conference play, but unfortunately for them, they have to face the league's toughest defense, as Marquette has the best defensive efficiency rating in the Big East during the conference season. Additionally, the Golden Eagles also rank first in the league in steal percentage and fourth in blocking percentage, two important stats because Butler is vulnerable in both areas, posting the second-worst offensive blocking percentage and ranking fifth in offensive steal percentage.
Now, with such glaring advantages, it's reasonable to wonder how Marquette lost at home in the first game between these two teams. Well, I'm not going to call it luck, but the shooting numbers in the first game were highly unfavorable for Marquette. The Golden Eagles made just 5-of-31 shots from behind the arc, officially their worst shooting performance of the season, still their only game of the season with failing to make at least 20 percent of their three-point attempts. Butler, in contrast, made 10-of-22 three-pointers in the same game, officially their second-best performance from the three-point line in a conference game this season. Aside from these numbers, Marquette won most other key categories such as offensive rebounds (15 to 6), turnovers (10 to 18), and steals (12 to 6).
It's always possible Butler finds a rhythm playing at home, but I'm betting Marquette will successfully get its revenge in their rematch. The Golden Eagles have been the consistently better team all year, and they match up well against the Bulldogs. And if you follow trends, I should note that the Golden Eagles have covered the spread in six of their last seven games, including the last four straight, according to Action Network. I'm laying the points with Marquette.
College Basketball Best Bet: Marquette -4
St. John's 
at Providence 
The Red Storm started off the conference season on fire, winning four of the first five games, but it has since come down to Earth, losing six of its last eight. Both of its wins during this recent stretch came at home, and one was against DePaul, so it needs to step it up on Tuesday if it wants to collect a hard-earned road win.
The Friars, on the other hand, have had the opposite results. Providence began league play with a 2-4 record, but it has since won four of its last seven, including a four-point victory over Creighton. This outcome isn't surprising, however, as the Friars tipped off the Big East season with a win over Marquette, so they've already proven they can compete with the elite teams in the conference.
In stacking these teams against each other, the matchup is mostly even when St. John's has the ball, with both teams ranking fifth in efficiency on that side of the court, however, the picture is far more interesting at the other end. When Providence has the ball, at first glance it seems that St. John's might have the edge. During conference play, St. John's has posted the seventh-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big East compared to ninth for Providence's offense, although there's more to the story. Providence's best trait on offense has been its aggressive playing style, logging the highest free-throw attempt rate in the Big East. This is bad news for St. John's, which has had problems with fouling on defense, logging the third-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate during league play.
Additionally, Providence also has an offensive edge inside the paint. The Friars are making 53 percent of shots inside the arc against league competition, the fourth-highest percentage in the Big East, and they're playing against a Red Storm defense that's allowing conference opponents to make over 50 percent of two-pointers, a mark below the league average allowed.
With a short line, I like our odds with the home team. Providence has played better basketball in recent games and it has a couple of areas going in its favor. I'm rolling with the Friars in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Providence -1.5
Ohio State 
at Wisconsin 
The Buckeyes finally stopped the bleeding and emerged victorious in double overtime against Maryland in their recent performance. Ohio State had lost eight of nine games before ending the skid, so the win was badly needed. Now, it has a shot at winning back-to-back Big Ten games for the first time this season.
The Badgers, similarly, are also mired in a skid, entering Tuesday with a four-game losing streak. The recent results are hard to swallow, especially after starting the conference season at 8-1, but it's worth pointing out that three of their losses came on the road, and the fourth loss came against Purdue by six points. Losing to Michigan and Rutgers in back-to-back games was rough, but it's a long season and Wisconsin has already accomplished a tremendous amount considering it's had to navigate the second-most difficult schedule in the country, according to KenPom.
The biggest advantage in this game goes to Wisconsin's offense. It's among the best in the country, logging the 14th-highest efficiency rating in the nation, and it's going against a defense that's struggled all year, and even more so against conference competition, posting the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten. And as one might expect, Ohio State's numbers are even worse on the road, allowing Big Ten opponents to average 79 points against them in road games. In all six of the Buckeyes' road games, their opponents have scored at least 71 points, and they put up 83 points in three of them.
When playing in the other direction, the matchup is much closer. Ohio State's offense ranks eighth in efficiency in the Big Ten compared to seventh on defense for Wisconsin. That said, the Badgers have not been stout in recent games and allowed each of the last three opponents to score at least 72 points. The most recent defensive effort was most alarming, allowing Rutgers, by far the worst offensive team in the Big Ten, to score 78 does not bode well.
Overall, while I think Wisconsin will get back on track on Tuesday, I'm much more confident in seeing a high-scoring game. Both teams are weaker on defense, and both teams are ranked top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency. We had a low-scoring game the first time these two teams tangled, but I'm betting the rematch will see more points considering the recent trends. According to Action Network, the 'over' in Wisconsin games has hit in seven of its last nine games, while the 'over' in Ohio State games has hit in five of its last six. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 139.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Marquette -4
- Providence -1.5
- Ohio State at Wisconsin - Over 139.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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