This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have many tight matchups on tap for Tuesday's college hoops slate. Here are my predictions for some select games tipping off on Tuesday evening.
Kentucky 
at South Carolina 
Kentucky is off to a great start in SEC play, jumping out to a 4-1 record. The results are nice, and the team has played well for most of the year, although Tuesday marks the Wildcats' third road conference game, and the first two didn't go smoothly. In its conference-opening game, Kentucky overcame an eight-point halftime deficit at Florida to win by two points. Then, a week later, at Texas A&M, Kentucky again trailed at halftime before falling in overtime, 97-92.
South Carolina has also started the conference season with positive results, going 3-2 en route to boosting its overall record to 15-3. The Gamecocks are a tenacious group, as evidenced by winning their last two road conference games, at Missouri and at Arkansas. These two opponents aren't having their best seasons, but defeating league opponents on the road is still an achievement nonetheless, and KenPom agrees, with both victories categorized as quality wins. Either way, this team has made huge strides from last year. Head coach Lamont Paris is now in his second year with the team, and they are now ranked 63rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart after finishing last season at 221st. Only time will tell how high they end up.
When looking at how the Gamecocks compare against their guests on Tuesday, I like their odds of keeping the game close for two reasons.
First, South Carolina has stepped up on defense in recent games. Since the conference season tipped off, the Gamecocks have the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating in the SEC, including the best defensive free-throw attempt rate. The latter is an important stat because the Wildcats have played aggressively at the rim against league foes, ranking third in the SEC in offensive free-throw attempt rate. Additionally, the Gamecocks have also been effective at stopping inside scoring, holding all opponents to under 45 percent on shots inside the arc, the 21st-lowest percentage allowed in the nation. This is also key because the Wildcats have great scoring numbers inside the paint, making almost 57 percent of two-point shots, the 19th-highest percentage.
The second reason why South Carolina has a fair chance at pulling the upset stems from its rebounding abilities. Kentucky does many things well, but one thing it doesn't do well is collect rebounds. The Wildcats rank 233rd in offensive rebounding percentage while the Gamecocks rank 104th in defensive rebounding, giving the latter an edge in this area. The advantage also plays in South Carolina's favor going the other direction, where it has the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the SEC during conference play, while Kentucky has performed close to the D1 average in defensive rebounding, ranking 148th in the nation.
Overall, it's tough to bet against the Wildcats with how they've played for most of the season, but like any other college basketball team, they are still vulnerable, especially away from the confines of their home arena. And for what it's worth, last year's South Carolina team traveled to Lexington and defeated Kentucky, 71-68, a Wildcat team that is ranked similarly to this year's squad. The Gamecocks, on the other hand, are much improved, and this year they meet in Columbia. I'm taking the points with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Carolina +4.5
Texas 
at Oklahoma
Texas narrowly survived against Baylor in its last game, winning by two points on a buzzer-beating shot. The Longhorns were reeling before that game, so the victory was much needed. Texas improved its conference record to 2-3, with two of the losses coming at home and a third coming on the road at West Virginia, results that hardly inspire confidence going forward. Also, another concerning note, Texas has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games, according to Action Network, further underscoring the negative trendline.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, has looked much better through early conference action. The Sooners have already defeated Iowa State and Cincinnati, and their only two losses came on the road against two of the toughest teams in TCU and Kansas. Oklahoma has played relatively well on offense, ranking 47th in efficiency, but the real ace up its sleeve is its defense, ranking 18th in efficiency. The latter should not come as a surprise considering the track record of the person leading the team. Head coach Porter Moser is now in his third season at Norman, and he's finally coached up the defense to a similar level that he saw at his last job with Loyola Chicago. In his last year with the Ramblers, the team recorded the second-best defensive efficiency in the nation, so it's certainly possible that Oklahoma will improve in this area.
In stacking these teams against each other, the biggest thing that stands out is the Longhorns' defense, easily the weakest link involved in Tuesday's game, for either team. Texas currently ranks 76th in defensive efficiency, not great for a Big 12 team, and it looks even worse when focusing on more recent results. Since league play started, the Longhorns have the third-worst defensive efficiency in the Big 12, including the worst three-point percentage allowed, and third-worst defensive free-throw attempt rate allowed. The latter has a good chance of biting them on Tuesday, as the Sooners have drawn a lot of contact in recent games, logging the fourth-highest offensive free-throw attempt rate in the Big 12 during the conference season. To make matters worse for Texas, Oklahoma makes over 76 percent of its free-throw attempts, the second-highest mark in the Big 12.
Looking at the bottom line, Oklahoma is simply the better team. Texas hasn't looked good against Big 12 teams, and it failed its only two tests before the start of conference season, losing by double digits to both Connecticut and Marquette. Now that the conference season started, its two wins came by a combined three points, and then it lost straight up to arguably the worst team in the conference. Texas may keep this game close for a half or so, but I'm betting Oklahoma rides the home-court advantage and pulls away when all is said and done. I'm laying the points with the Sooners.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oklahoma -4.5
Pittsburgh 
at Georgia Tech 
Pittsburgh had a resurgent season a year ago, winning multiple NCAA tournament games, but unfortunately, the team's stock has taken a dip in 2024. At one point, the Panthers had won nine of their first 12 games, but they have now lost four of six games since December 30th. The pile of losses is bad enough, but the other red flag is that the games aren't close, either. Pittsburgh has lost by at least eight points in all five of its conference losses. Not a good sign. I would be remiss if I didn't mention the Panthers' spectacular win at Duke this past Saturday. The win was nice and shows that they can still put together a good game every once in a while, but this was truly its only noteworthy win for the entire season. This type of performance is a rare occurrence. Additionally, Pittsburgh's opponent on Wednesday also already defeated Duke this year, further minimizing the accomplishment.
Georgia Tech is also off to a rough start in the ACC, entering Tuesday with an identical conference record (2-5) as its guest. In addition to defeating Duke, the Yellow Jackets won a week ago at Clemson, giving them two strong conference victories as well as a win over Mississippi State earlier in the year. The overall efficiency numbers for Georgia Tech are concerning, but the fact that it's defeated multiple teams on track to make the NCAA tournament shows that it still has the potential to defeat any team on any given day.
When examining these teams side-by-side, the most noteworthy area is Georgia Tech's offensive improvements. On the year, the Yellow Jackets rank 98th in offensive efficiency among all D1 teams, but focusing on games against league opponents, they have the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the ACC. Even better, in the same span, they have the highest two-point field goal percentage in the conference and the second-highest effective field goal percentage. Aside from shooting, they should also have an advantage on the offensive glass, ranking seventh in the ACC compared to 12th for Pittsburgh's defense.
Georgia Tech might have a worse overall record and worse overall efficiency rating, but based on the recent data, I believe the Yellow Jackets will be the better team on Tuesday. They are scoring points at a much higher rate than their opponent over the past several weeks, and they're also much more battle-tested. All things considered, I'm taking the points with the home team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgia Tech +3
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- South Carolina +4.5
- Oklahoma -4.5
- Georgia Tech +3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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