This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday brings us another slate full of pivotal conference clashes from around the country. Here are my predictions for a few noteworthy matchups.
Marquette 
at Villanova 
Marquette enters Tuesday riding a four-game win streak, bouncing back up the Big East standings following a 2-3 start to the conference season. The Golden Eagles have assembled an impressive resume but are far from perfect, especially away from home. They have five losses and all but one of them occurred outside of Milwaukee.
Villanova, in contrast, enters Tuesday on a four-game skid, dropping to 4-5 in the Big East following a 4-1 start in conference play. The recent pile of losses is concerning, but a closer look reveals it's not necessarily time to sound the alarm. Three of the losses were on the road, with the most recent coming in double overtime at Butler. The second of the four losses was a one-point home loss to Connecticut, a respectable outcome despite not getting the win.
The last time these two teams clashed, Marquette won at home, 87-74, just a couple of weeks ago on January 15th. It would be easy to postulate Marquette will win again because the first game was so easy, but the box score reveals that isn't exactly true. The Golden Eagles are undoubtedly great at scoring, however, they made 30-of-40 shots inside the arc in the first game, easily their highest two-point field goal percentage of the season. They have not come close to this mark in any other game, so this likely won't happen again. At the same time, the Wildcats committed 12 turnovers en route to a minus-nine turnover margin, their worst mark of the season.
Now that Villanova is home for the rematch, and desperate for a win, I'm betting on the game going in their favor this time around. I don't normally weigh motivational angles much, since most college teams are always trying to win, but this is a case where one of these teams is in dire need of a victory. Villanova has already defeated several good teams this season, such as North Carolina, Creighton, and Xavier, so it's proven to be a competitive team even if recent results haven't gone their way. I'm rolling with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova -1.5
Iowa 
at Indiana
Iowa refreshes its roster as much as any other college program, and yet head coach Fran McCaffery always has his team ready to score points. If the season ended today, this would mark the program's seventh consecutive year with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top 20 of the nation. Unfortunately, the defense always pales in comparison, the perpetual weak link for the team. This type of unbalanced performance leads to a lot of wins thanks to the offense, but it also means losses whenever they run up against a strong defensive team. All but one of Iowa's eight losses this season have come against teams that rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Luckily for the Hawkeyes, Tuesday's opponent does not fit that bill.
Indiana is in its third year under head coach Mike Woodson, and unfortunately for the Hoosiers, this is turning out to be the worst one yet. The Hoosiers made the NCAA tournament in each of the last two seasons, and barring a miraculous run, that streak will surely come to an end. The problem with this year's team is that it doesn't do anything particularly well. It ranks 110th in offensive efficiency, and 75th in defensive efficiency, giving it an overall efficiency ranking of 92nd, the third-lowest among Big Ten teams. Its best skill, on paper at least, is drawing contact at the basket, ranking 24th in the nation in offensive free-throw attempt rate, although it's dreadful from the charity stripe, making 66 percent of its free-throws, ranked 326th among all D1 teams.
When looking at the matchup between these two teams, Iowa appears to have an edge on both ends of the court. When the Hawkeyes have the ball, their offense has a higher ranking compared to the Hoosiers' defense in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. On the other end of the court, we have a similar story when looking at data from the conference season, as Indiana has the third-worst offensive efficiency in the Big Ten during league play, and it's going against an Iowa defense that ranks ninth in the conference. Additionally, the Hawkeyes' defense also ranks higher in effective field goal percentage allowed and defensive turnover percentage.
All in all, Iowa is simply the better team. Indiana still has enough talent to get a win at home, obviously, but if these two teams play to their season-long numbers, it's hard to see the Hoosiers keeping pace. I don't often trust Iowa's defense, but in this case, I'm betting it will do enough to keep down a struggling Hoosier team. I'm going with Iowa in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa -1
Mississippi State 
at Mississippi 
I would normally say the Bulldogs are coming off their best game of the year, a 64-58 victory over Auburn, although they also beat Tennessee, 77-72, earlier in the month, giving us a fair debate about which win was more impressive. And while Mississippi State has built itself a nice resume up to this point, it's still playing like a different team on the road, like most college teams. The Bulldogs are now 3-4 against SEC teams, and they've lost all three road games by at least six points.
Mississippi, meanwhile, is in fact coming off its best game of the year, a three-point road win at Texas A&M. The Rebels had a fairly easy non-conference slate, but they did beat Memphis and win at UCF while going undefeated 13-0 before conference season, so this is proving to be a good team even if it's not quite as battle-tested compared to others.
In stacking these teams against each other, the Rebels have two major advantages. First, the Bulldogs have a gigantic flaw in the form of offensive turnovers, recording the third-worst offensive turnover percentage in the SEC since the conference season started. They also rank 249th in the same category among D1 teams for the whole season, so this has been a consistent problem all year. This is great news for the home team, as the Rebels are among the best at causing defensive turnovers, ranking 75th in the nation and fourth in the SEC during league play. The second area where Ole Miss has a massive edge is free-throw shooting. The Bulldogs are among the worst teams in this category, making 68 percent from the charity stripe, ranked 289th in the nation. The Rebels, on the other hand, are among the best, making 75 percent of their foul shots, the 66th-highest percentage. On top of this high conversion rate, Mississippi State has had a defensive problem with fouling, posting the third-worst defensive free-throw rate in the SEC during conference season.
Rivalry games are never easy, but Mississippi appears well-equipped to defend its home court on Tuesday. Both teams are proving to be solid squads that have a fair chance at making the NCAA tournament, but considering the matchup advantages mentioned above, I'm betting that the home team will walk away with the win. If you like trends, it's worth noting that Mississippi has now covered the spread in 11 of its last 15 games, according to Action Network. I'm laying the points with the Rebels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi -1
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Villanova -1.5
- Iowa -1
- Mississippi -1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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