This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday brings us another college hoops slate full of tight matchups across the board. Here are my picks for today's hoops action.
Providence 
at Seton Hall 
Providence finally got back on track with an emphatic bounce-back performance in its last game at DePaul, winning by a final score of 100-62. The Friars entered on a four-game skid, so the win was needed. Despite losing four straight games they still have a fair shot at making the NCAA tournament. They can't afford many more losses, but they have signature wins over Wisconsin and Marquette and don't have any losses to bad teams. The key to the team is its defense, which has the 10th-best efficiency rating in the nation.
Seton Hall, in contrast, had its five-game winning streak snapped with its last performance, dropping a home game to Creighton in triple overtime, 97-94. The Pirates already have several quality wins on their resume, although their efficiency numbers aren't as good as one might expect given its accomplishments. Seton Hall ranks outside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, not quite dominant on either end of the court. Another foreboding sign, the Pirates have six losses, and all but one of them came by at least a seven-point margin.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, Providence has a couple of areas going in its favor. First, the Friars have a substantial turnover advantage. Since conference play started, Seton Hall has the worst offensive turnover percentage in the Big East, while Providence has the second-best defensive turnover percentage. Going in the other direction, the Friars have the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big East, while Seton Hall is sixth on defense. The disparity in this category is massive, so it's a safe bet that Providence should win the turnover battle. The other area that favors the Friars is rebounding, particularly on the defensive glass. Throughout the entire year, Seton Hall's best offensive skill is arguably its rebounding ability, ranking seventh in the nation. At the same time, Providence is incredibly effective at cleaning up on the defensive glass, recording the second-best defensive rebounding percentage in the Big East during league play.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention the results from the last time these two teams met back in early January at Providence. Seton Hall won, 61-57, but it's worth pointing out that Providence had an uncharacteristic night from behind the arc, making 4-of-17 three-point attempts. We don't make excuses, but this is also the Friars' season-low in three-pointers made, so one can reasonably expect them to have better success on Wednesday. Providence is making 33 percent of shots from behind the arc while attempting them at the second-highest frequency among Big East teams, so it's not a surprise to see that it's made at least eight three-point shots in eight of its last nine games, the one exception being when it hosted Seton Hall.
Life on the road isn't easy, but given how Providence matches up against Seton Hall, I like our chances with the Friars. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Providence +4
Miami 
at Notre Dame
Miami is in trouble. It played a rather easy non-conference slate, ranking 261st in difficulty, according to KenPom, and it got blown out against its two toughest opponents, losing 95-73 against Kentucky and losing 90-63 against Colorado. More recently, the Hurricanes have lost four of their last five games, including a nine-point home loss to Louisville, easily the worst team in the ACC.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, doesn't have much to brag about, although it did defeat Virginia for its first conference win, so it's still capable of defeating a competent team despite the ugly record. The Fighting Irish aren't going to win many games with their offense, and they haven't, obviously, but they've played defense at a high level for most of the year, and it's only improving. On the year, Notre Dame ranks 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, but if we focus on the conference season, the Fighting Irish have the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the ACC.
In digging deeper into the numbers, Notre Dame has a decent shot at defending home court for a couple of key reasons. The biggest one is rebounding. The Fighting Irish have a significant advantage in this area, ranking fourth in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage, much better than Miami, ranking 12th in the conference on defense. Notre Dame has an advantage at the other end of the court as well, ranking sixth in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage, compared to Miami's ranking of 10th. The other area where Notre Dame has improved is its shooting. On the season, it's making under 30 percent from behind the arc, but through seven conference games, it's making over 33 percent.
It's tricky backing a team like Notre Dame, but Miami has already shown that it's capable of losing to worse teams in more favorable environments. Based on Notre Dame's strengths and improving areas, I'm betting they'll make this game come down to the very end, if not win straight up. I'm taking the points with the home team in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Notre Dame +4.5
Auburn 
at Alabama
On paper, these teams are evenly matched and are seemingly two of the best teams in the nation. Auburn enters Wednesday ranked fifth in the nation on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, with Alabama trailing by a few slots at eighth. That said, one of these teams will have a gigantic advantage when they tangle on Wednesday.
On the year, Alabama hasn't been very careful on offense, turning the ball over close to the D1 average. The problem, however, is that this trait has substantially worsened in recent games, recording the worst offensive turnover percentage in the SEC during conference play. In the same span, Auburn, which has been effective at causing turnovers all year long, has the highest defensive turnover percentage in the SEC, giving the Tigers a significant edge in the turnover department. Auburn also has a turnover advantage in the other direction, too, ranking 35th among all D1 teams in offensive turnover percentage, with Alabama ranking 246th on the defensive side.
The other trait that separates Auburn apart, and elevates it to another level, is its elite performances on both ends of the court throughout the season. The Tigers enter Wednesday ranked in the top 10 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a claim shared by Arizona and nobody else. Alabama is among the best at scoring points, but its defensive play is its clear Achilles heel this season, ranking 66th in the nation. Auburn's extraordinary level of play has carried over into conference play as well, ranking first in the SEC in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency.
Playing a rival is seldom easy, but Auburn is well-equipped to earn the win on Wednesday. I'm taking the points with the better team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Auburn +2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Providence +4
- Notre Dame +4.5
- Auburn +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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