This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Ladies and gentlemen, it's March! We're reaching the conclusion of the college hoops season, with just one more regular season week to go after this weekend across the power conferences. Three slates and a massive 35 games to sort through at DraftKings. Let's dive in.
Main Slate
We know the drill by now. $5,000 is there for the winner of the main tournament Saturday, with $15,000 in total prizes. 12 games tipping between noon and 3:30 p.m. EST, so it's a touch more elongated than we're used to. Seven of the 12 project totals of 148.5 or greater, led by Kentucky-Arkansas at a gaudy 167.5. Providence-Villanova is our low spot at 130, which also has the slate's highest-salaried player in Devin Carter. He's a pass for me, and that's not because of the matchup.
Top Players
Caleb Love, G, Arizona ($8,700)
This is a fascinating slate. We've got plenty of high scoring games to choose from on both sides offering depth and upside. We also have some players in poor form with sliding salaries. Both of those can provide enough value to fit in a pay-up, or enough depth to not require bargain options and just live in the 6k range. Love has finally earned my trust, so he's my preference if you're wanting a high-end piece. He's only been under 30 DKP twice in his last 10 while topping 40 DKP five ties, so I like my chances on the ceiling. Love is averaging 21.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.3 steals during that stretch while logging 35.8 minutes with a 26.1 percent usage rate. Arizona has scored at least 80 points over eight of 10, including 87 earlier in the season at Oregon where Love went for 46.3 DKP thanks to a massive 36-3-2-1 line.
Posh Alexander, G, Butler ($7,000)
Everything screams backing Alexander. He's a well-rounded player who averages 11.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.2 steals on the year, resulting in 28 DKP - or right at a 4x return. Alexander scored in double-digits from four straight and five of six, has produced at least four rebounds four in a row and seven of eight, and at least three assists in 14 of 15. Pair that with a matchup against DePaul, who rank 320th in defensive efficiency, and we've got a match made in heaven. Alexander previously posted 39.5 DKP against them thanks to a 17-2-6-6 line, making for a terrific high-floor, high-ceiling option at fair value.
Pay-up forward preferences include Jamir Watkins, FSU; Dawson Garcia, Minnesota; Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Middle Tier
Tyler Wahl, F, Wisconsin ($6,600)
I have plenty of interest in teammate AJ Storr, but we need some frontcourt options so Wahl is the selection. Wisconsin is expected to score almost 80 points here and doesn't have a player over $6,900, so it makes sense to snag a piece. If we accept Steven Crowl will be battling Coleman Hawkins, I like Wahl's matchup with Quincy Guerrier - who's longer, though Wahl should be able to overpower him and/or work foul trouble, which would leave the Illini vastly undersized. The scoring in the game should make Wahl a safe option for production, yet he's only recorded seven games all year over 28 DKP and the ceiling isn't elite. Maybe that's a high salary to pay for stability, but I'll take my chances.
Robert Dillingham, G, Kentucky ($6,500)
Dillingham was valued as high as $8,600 earlier this season, so we're getting a nice dip and we likely need Wildcat exposure with them having a 90.5 point implied total. The decline in salary is certainly indicative of Dillingham's form, as he hasn't topped 30 DKP since Feb. 6 against Vanderbilt. But he's still shown a 32.0 percent usage rate since, a number that rises to 36.4 across his last four. The floor is low, but he represents a big swing at a modest cost for GPPs.
Bargain Options
Trevon Brazile, F, Arkansas ($4,900)
When healthier earlier in the year, Brazile was as high as $8,100 and displayed a 43.75 DKP ceiling. He's only logged 21 minutes in two games since returning, so we're not expecting that outburst nor are we paying for it. Brazile did earn 17 DKP across 17 minutes last time out despite only a 13.6 percent usage rate. I'm a glutton for punishment apparently, as I can't quit Arkansas despite their constant changes in rotation. But if we buy into Kentucky's pushing of pace and pair it with Brazile seeing an uptick in minutes, there's enough to like at the sub-5k value. El Ellis is also in play as a bargain, but I can't roll with two Razorbacks.
Brock Cunningham, F, Texas ($4,500)
We know it's slim pickings at the bottom this point in the year. There are a handful of sub-5k players who carry minor appeal, and Cunningham for me is simply the cheapest. He and Kadin Shedrick have both shown at least double-digit fantasy potential the last four games. Cunningham is averaging 18.6 minutes in his last seven to give us at least a 2.3x return five times. As double-digit favorites, perhaps he gets some more offensive opportunities late to bolster his upside.
Afternoon Slate
12 more games tip between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. EST, where $2,000 is up for grabs to a winner and $6,000 overall. Some pretty wide disparities in totals, with just five checking in with at least 149.5 and four 134 or below - including three under 130. For GPPs, I'd pay particularly close attention to those lower scoring matchups and see if you can find one player you feel confident about and gain an edge via low roster percentages.
Top Players
Harrison Ingram, F, North Carolina ($7,700)
I don't think anyone saw Ingram's rebounding prowess coming this season, but that gives him a tremendous floor. He's pulled down double-digit boards in four straight and nine of his last 11, and that doesn't include the massive 19 he grabbed against NC State earlier in the year. If we give Ingram 10-plus rebound potential, the Tar Heels' pace make him a double-double upside option at a cheaper buy-in than both R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot. He previously pulled down five offensive boards against the Wolfpack, is averaging nearly three of that variety during this stretch, and 9.5 shot attempts to further suggest 10 points, 10 boards and a few more counting stats is probable.
Hunter Sallis, G, Wake Forest ($7,300)
This looks like a prime buy-low opportunity on Sallis, who's off a woeful 2-for-11 shooting night at Notre Dame with a salary $900 lower than its season peak. Wake has no bench as all five of their starters play at least 28 minutes, with Sallis leading the way at 35.2. All five also scored in double-digits against the Hokies last time out, and he was elite with 39.75 DKP thanks to 20 points and nine rebounds. We know we're getting double-digit shots in a matchup with a very narrow spread where stars should shine throughout. Sallis doesn't offer a diverse fantasy point profile, but the volume and minutes make up for that.
If looking for higher-end options, I like Northwestern's duo of Boo Buie and/or Brooks Barnhizer against uptempo Iowa.
Middle Tier
Jaylin Williams, F, Auburn ($6,300)
A salary break on a semi-premium player due to injury in a game where the Tigers can flirt with 80 points? Sign me up. Unfortunately, that may be the extent of the appeal. Williams logged 21 minutes off the bench in his return from a one-game absence due to a knee injury to return a stable 24.25 DKP, a decent enough 3.8x return. He went for 22.25 DKP in a healthy performance against the Bulldogs earlier this season, a game where Auburn only posted 58 points. If we buy the Tigers will get the pace going at home and we buy a stable or an uptick in minutes with a return to health, there's a ceiling to Williams that far exceeds his salary while already establishing some form of stability.
Simas Lukosius, G/F, Cincinnati ($5,800)
This is a floor pick more than anything else. The Bearcats list a 72-point implied total, yet don't have a player above $6,300 so the entire lineup is seemingly in play. Lukosius offers position flexibility and stable minutes, having been at or above 30 in each of his last nine games while averaging 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Lukosius has only failed to return 3x twice while topping a 4x return three times. If you're feeling frisky, Viktor Lakhin reemerged in Cincy's last outing. He's as risky as they come, though offers upside on the cheap.
Bargain Options
Joshua Morgan, F, USC ($4,700)
Morgan is as feast-or-famine as they come. Over his last nine games, he's started seven times with five efforts of 19.5 DKP or greater and two with zero or negative fantasy points. His upside comes from shot blocking, which could pop here as the Huskies allow roughly nine percent of their attempts to be blocked. Bank on Morgan to get 18 minutes-or-so here, a handful of points and rebounds, and also hope a few blocks to get a 20 DKP return.
Blue Cain, G Georgia ($4,300)
Cain has displayed flashes all season and earned his first start of the year last time out against LSU. He returned 17.0 DKP across 21 minutes, his first double-digit fantasy showing in five games. There's no guarantee Cain starts again and the Aggies rank 298th in tempo and 77th in defense, so it's not an ideal spot. But the salary hasn't risen to an uncomfortable level, and it seems a rare rising opportunity for a player this late in the season.
Evening Slate
Nightcap time, and I'll need one when I get home to catch these games. Yours truly may or may not be on the shot clock Saturday night for VCU-Richmond, which is always fun and intense.
11 games, $5,000 total prizes and $1,000 to first for the major tournament here, and it's my kind of tournament with only 588 lineups competing. It's another slate with massive game total disparity led by Tennessee-Alabama at 169.5 and five others with totals of at least 151.5. On the flipside, Houston-Oklahoma lists 128.5 and Clemson-Notre Dame is at 130.5. I wouldn't ignore Houston at the top. And as this portion developed, I liked and/or forced myself into a value play here.
We've also got Purdue's Zach Edey making a rare Saturday appearance as the team has largely played on Sundays throughout the year. He's valued at a massive $11,000, with his next closest competitor at $8,900. That's a tall ask, but by all means find ways to have shares if you're a multi-lineup competitor.
Top Players
Jonas Aidoo, F, Tennessee ($7,600)
There's a lot of firepower on this slate, so lineup builds are going to be a fascinating decision. How much are you willing to pay up and risk things on the lower end? I fault no one for just taking Dalton Knecht in this game and moving on. But for $1,200 less, we may be able to squeeze out value, gain a frontcourt option, and get balance in the middle tier. Aidoo listed a 30.1 percent usage rate in an earlier meeting with the Tide where he scored 19 and blocked four shots on his way to 35.0 DKP. He's a matchup problem for Alabama and has now posted double-digits in five straight with two double-doubles and only one effort under seven rebounds.
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, F, Louisville ($7,400)
Not a name I ever expected to place here, but that's part of the appeal as no one else will use him either. Syracuse plays fast, and that leaves this matchup with a 157.0 point total and a somewhat surprisingly 3.5 point spread. Huntley-Hatfield went for a whopping 41.25 DKP against the Orange last time out on the strength of a 19-point, 13-rebound double-double. That outing was the second of a seven-game run where he averaged 17.1 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.0 blocks while scoring in double-digits every time. Safe floor, minimal upside needed at this salary, and a lowly rostered player represents a nice GPP pivot.
Middle Tier
Desmond Claude, G, Xavier ($6,600)
We're getting a pretty significant value here on Claude, who's been as high as $8,200 this season. Of course that comes with poor form having posted 18.0 DKP or less in three of four, with two of those three barely equaling that high/low point. It's simply a product of poor shooting, as Claude is only hitting 32.6 percent from the floor over that stretch. On the plus side, he's seen a 24.9 percent usage rate while averaging 11.5 attempts. Similar to Posh Alexander on the main slate, the matchup screams stability, bounceback and upside opportunity as Georgetown ranks 322nd in defensive efficiency and 351st in effective field goal percentage allowed. Claude previously posted 41.75 DKP against them and we don't need nearly that much for a fair return, but we'll welcome it.
Max Rice, G, Boise State ($6,200)
Salary decrease isn't the worst indicator, but it always represents a bad game or few weeks and a chance to recover. And Rice may be my favorite pick of the day to do so. He's off a woeful 1-for-7 shooting night where he ended with 5.5 DKP, his first in single-digit fantasy points since early December. That Rice has any is concerning for a player at this value, yet he hadn't been under 19.25 DKP since Dec. 21 and erupted for 49.25 against New Mexico during an earlier meeting. Boise comes with a 79.5 point team implied total, and we've got a narrow spread. Rice will log at least 30 minutes and produce enough.
Bargain Options
Kebba Njie, F, Notre Dame ($4,700)
As with the first two slates Saturday, the bottom here is unappealing and paying up for elite players is so difficult because there's no emerging roles to create value. Njie is locked in to a starting role while averaging 24.7 minutes across his last six games and posting 5.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.0 blocks, never going below a 2x return at this salary and four times returning at least 3.8x. It's not an easy path in a defensive game, but it works where value is obscure.
Brandon Murray, G, Mississippi ($4,400)
Murray went through a two-game stretch where he was virtually invisible having combined for 13 total minutes. Outside of that, he's logged 27.5 over his last two and 22.3 in 12. It seems to be an odd two-game window as no injuries are mentioned. The production is far from elite, but Murray reached double-digit fantasy points 11 of those 14 games, creating a solid floor while showing a 22-point fantasy ceiling. The Rebels face a winless in-conference Missouri side that ranks 173rd in defensive efficiency, so we only need 13.2 DKP for a 3x return while opening up our budget.
