This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
After a string of smaller slates the past few Thursdays, DraftKings has a full 12-game slate for us to choose from this Thursday. Everything tips off at 7 p.m. EST before we get a 4-game night slate starting at 10 p.m. EST. There are still only four games that have totals greater than 140, and the two that have overs above 150 are both projected to be lopsided contests. Therefore, we'll have to pick our spots in some of these lower-scoring games to make sure we're getting as much value as possible.
Top Tier
Amari Williams, F, Drexel ($8,400)
The 6-foot-10 Williams has been overlooked in many fantasy formats while playing for 12-10 Drexel this season, as the junior is averaging 14.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. However, he won't go unnoticed in this matchup against a College of Charleston team that ranks 39th in adjusted tempo (70.3), per KenPom. Drexel is much slower at 332nd in adjusted tempo (63.6), but the expected total of 142 is enough to grab our attention as well. Williams has carried this squad with a 29.6 percent usage rate over the last five games. He could have an even bigger burden to carry with Drexel slated as 7.5-point underdogs to Charleston.
Brice Sensabaugh, F, Ohio State ($8,000)
Sensabaugh's moderate 24.0 minutes per game is somewhat deceiving, as he opened the season in a bench role before starting all but one of the last 13 games. Since then, the 6-foot-6 forward has scored 30+ DKP in 11 of these contests. He's averaged 19.7 points per game while also hitting 51.3 percent of his 14.5 field-goal tries during this span. The Badgers are ranked 324th in two-point percentage (45.7) and 343rd in offensive rebounding percentage (21.3), per KenPom. This should only help inflate Sensabaugh's 6.9 rebounds per game since he took on a starting role.
Middle Tier
Johnell Davis, G, Florida Atlantic ($6,700)
This is probably the most attractive matchup on the slate with a total of 147 and a one-point spread. Davis has great value in the Owls' lineup, as he's averaged 23.6 minutes per game despite coming off the bench since late-November. The 6-foot-4 sophomore has only seen his role increase, putting up at least 24 DKP over the last seven contests. During the last five games, he's actually averaging 16.4 points and 5.6 rebounds while playing between 24 and 29 minutes in each contest. Davis also had his best outing of the season with 36 points and six boards in a 88-86 win over UAB on Jan. 5. There's significant upside and plenty of consistent production that makes Davis one of the biggest no-brainers in Thursday's slate.
Jett Howard, F, Michigan ($6,300)
Howard exploded with 21 points and shot 5-of-7 from beyond the arc during his first game back from an ankle injury Sunday. The freshman wing takes 6.9 of his 11.3 field-goal tries from three-point land, which has been a recipe for success given his 39.9 percent three-point shooting. Howard has had some fantasy volatility this season, as his 2.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game don't bring much to rely on. But, he'll be facing a Northwestern squad that ranks 245th in three-point percentage allowed (35.0) and 332nd in opponent three-point attempt percentage (43.5), per KenPom. That's far too much upside to resist when the Wolverines, who are 3.5-point underdogs, are expected to score 67.5.
Bargain Tier
Rasir Bolton, G, Gonzaga ($6,000)
The Zags are 13.5-point favorites at home, but both Gonzaga and Santa Clara fall in the top 51 for adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The total is also set at an exorbitant 159. Therefore, while it's not worth investing too much salary in what could be a lopsided game, it doesn't hurt to take a flier on one of Gonzaga's more under-the-radar starters. Over their last five games, Bolton has averaged the fewest minutes (25.4) amongst the starting rotation, but his usage rate of 20.3 percent over this span still ranks third in the Bulldogs' starting lineup. Bolton is also averaging 10.5 points and shooting 39.2 percent on three-pointers this season. Santa Clara is ranked 324th in three-point percentage allowed (37.1), per KenPom, so choosing a plus three-point shooter makes sense.
Quincy Guerrier, F, Oregon ($5,600)
Guerrier fell out of a starting role heading into the Jan. 14 win over Arizona, but he totaled 25 points and 11 rebounds while starting each of the last two games in place of injured center N'Faly Dante. Dante did return from his ankle injury for last Saturday's win over Utah, but he still came off the bench and was limited to 21 minutes. Guerrier also played 27 minutes against the Utes. While he'll still serve a secondary role behind Dante whenever both are on the court, it's possible Guerrier could see increased playing time again given that the Wildcats are favored by nine points over the Ducks. This is also expected to be the second-highest scoring game on the slate at 150.5, so we'll want to get as much value out of this as possible.
