This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
12 games come our way Tuesday evening, with a slightly earlier 6:30 p.m. EST tip, with five of those games doubling over into a 9:00 p.m. night slate. Led by Miami at Virginia Tech with a 153.5 point total, five games sit north of my magical 140 point number, with three others not too far behind. Tennessee at Texas A&M is our low point of the evening at 128.5, and is somewhat obviously one game we may want to fade. Not only do both teams play good defense, they are also deep and diverse in their production, making it difficult to know where we can gain major fantasy points.
Lineups are looking pretty healthy, so we won't see (m)any spot starters offering value. And we've got Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis ($11,800) to contend with. He's a massive $2,800 more expensive than any other option on the slate. He's well worth it, but it's really hard to to put together a deep lineup while also using him. For multi-entry tournaments, you absolutely sprinkle him into builds. For single-entry, I'm not certain we can.
Top Tier
Keyontae Johnson, F, Kansas State ($7,800)
At a solid $1,300 discount from our non-Jackson-Davis options, Johnson headlines what I find to be an incredibly deep slate chock full of options. We don't want to chase prior performances, but at this number, it's difficult to ignore the 41.75 DKP he posted against Baylor previously. He's had a 27.1 percent usage rate across the Wildcats last five and has played a massive 37.7 minutes across their last three. The points will be there, further buoyed by the game's 145.5 point total and narrow 1.5 point spread. Johnson just needs to elevate his work on the glass to post a big, potential 5x return.
Terry Roberts, G, Georgia ($7,000)
Roberts didn't boom for me in Saturday's column, but a 26.75 DKP return wasn't awful at the $7,100 price point, and it's fallen again ever so slightly. The most important point was he played 32 minutes despite not starting in an incredibly lopsided game. He's an elite talent that's been priced as high as $8,500, and the usage is through the roof, sitting at 28.9 percent over his last five outings. The matchup may not be ideal, with Arkansas checking in at 12th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. But this should be a relatively competitive match which allows Roberts to dominate the ball, leading to scoring and assist potential at a minimal top-end investment.
Middle Tier
Joey Hauser, F, Michigan State ($6,800)
Hauser is on a nice run, scoring 20+ in three straight despite a modest 21.2 percent usage rate. He's taken 10+ shots in six of the Spartans last seven games, emerging as their go-to scorer, and the 5.1 rebounds he's averaged over that stretch creates a nice floor. The price is getting a little too rich given this current form, but it's hard to see him completely failing with each game becoming more important. He lit up Indiana for a 30.5 DKP showing previously, and with an expected tight, one-possession game ahead, he'll likely have the ball in his hands late looking for scoring opportunities.
Kameron Jones, G, Marquette ($6,600)
Given the 148.5 point total, I expect this game to be heavily targeted. And I could easily be on the wrong side if I fade it, but I also want to point out these two played to a 69-58 result previously -- far below these expectations. Furthermore, for as efficient as Marquette is offensively, they've scored 73 points or less in three of their last five, and Creighton is 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Jones is off of a woeful 2-for-14 shooting performance over the weekend, and went for only 21.25 DKP in the previous matchup, but I'm interested in his volume, and the price dip on a player that's been up as high as $8,300 previously. The volume should create a nice floor, and if the game does reach the expected total, there's a winning ceiling as well.
Bargain Tier
Hunter Cattoor, G, Virginia Tech ($6,300)
Cattoor is the straw that stirs the Hokies. He missed four games, all losses for Virginia Tech, but has averaged 36.6 minutes in 10 games since returning, giving us a 17.0 DKP floor and 39.75 DKP ceiling. That includes a 33.5 DKP outing against Miami previous that saw these two battle to a 92-83 Miami victory previously. Cattoor is an inconsistent scorer that should see an elevation given the expect point potential in this game, but he's not inconsistent in peripherals. He's a likely lock for 10 points, four rebounds and three assists with an elevated ceiling with Miami having allowed at least 72 points in five of its last six.
Nisine Poplar, G, Miami ($5,000)
There's absolutely something to be said for paying up for both Hokie and 'Cane top options given the high total, and the recent propensity for both teams to not play defense. But in continuing with our balanced theme, I like Poplar a lot at this number. There's certainly volatility, as any of Miami's starters can go off any night. That's exactly why I'm willing to fade the top options in favor of Poplar, as we minimize risk. He was worth a mere 11.25 DKP in an earlier shootout with the Hokies, but that's still not going to sink us at the discount. And five times in his last eight outings Poplar has been around or well north of a 4x return.
