College Football DFS: Weekday Slate MACtion Nov. 2

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Published on November 2, 2021

Slate Overview

The calendar has turned to November, and that means we're already starting to hear Christmas music way too early and that MACtion is back to make our weeknights fun. MACtion kicks off tonight with a three-game slate featuring matchups between Akron and Ball State, Ohio and Miami (OH) and Toledo and Eastern Michigan.

The Akron-Ball State matchup checks in with the highest total (58.5) and the widest spread (BS -20.55). All three games have totals north of 50, though, so there will be plenty of ways to get exposure to each contest.

The most intimidating defense on the board is Toledo's. The Rockets rank 36th in the nation in defensive S&P+ rating and allow just 18.7 points per game. They're solid across the board, surrendering just 6.0 YPA and 3.6 YPC. With so many other weak defenses on the slate, I'm less inclined to get much exposure to the Eastern Michigan offense on the road facing this tough Toledo defense.

Solving quarterback will be key tonight as two of the six teams have very unsettled QB situations. Akron's DJ Irons and Zach Gibson are both priced at $5K. Both played ineffectively in Akron's last game and Kato Nelson hasn't played since Week 6. If a starter is officially announced before kickoff, and my guess would be Irons, he could be a decent punt play option at SuperFlex. Ohio is also unsettled with Armani Rogers and Kurtis Rourke both seeing playing time each week. The safest path may be

Slate Overview

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Position-by-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

Drew Plitt, Ball State ($7,100 DK, $11,000 FD) at Akron

I'm all over the Cards' passing attack tonight as they head to Akron to face a secondary that allows 8.9 YPA to opposing passers. Plitt is a solid option in his own right and has receivers at varying price points that make a Ball State passing stack very feasible. After a tough stretch of games to start the season against the likes of Penn State and Wyoming on the road, Plitt has started to heat up. Plitt has thrown for 1,167 yards with a 9:1 TD:INT over his last five games. Plitt doesn't offer much rushing upside but he could easily lead this slate in passing production.

Kurtis Rourke, Ohio ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD) vs. Miami (OH)

There's plenty of risk here as Ohio has waffled between using Rourke and Armani Rogers throughout the season. However, this is a small slate and it's hard to fully eliminate risk from your QB/S-Flex plays without ponying up a healthy amount of your salary. To make matters worse, Ohio is reportedly not expected to formally announce its starter before kickoff Tuesday, so it could take some reading of the tea leaves during pregame warmups to figure out who will get the nod and even that can be an inexact science.

Still, Rourke has the momentum coming into this game. Rogers poses a rushing threat that is valuable but Rourke is the better overall passer and is coming off a surprising 308-yard performance off the bench against Kent State in a narrow loss. I expect Rourke to start and play the bulk of the game, hence the recommendation here, but I want to frame it in a GPP-only context. Rogers could still see playing time thanks to his rushing ability but Rourke seems to have the hot hand and would be my pick to get the start against the RedHawks. The uncertainty surrounding this quarterback situation could drive roster percentage down, and if Rourke ends up being a hit, it could be a slate-changer.

Running Back

Bryant Koback, Toledo ($7,900 DK; $11,500 FD) vs. Eastern Michigan

The options at running back for Tuesday's slate are pretty slim once you get past Koback, who is $1,300 more expensive than any other runner on the board and with good reason. Koback ranks fourth in the MAC in carries per game (15.1) and rushing yards per game (81.3) and he has also punched in five rushing touchdowns. The only true risk in playing Koback is Toledo's quarterback, DeQuann Finn, is a threat to vulture goal-line work as he has six rushing scores to his credit this season. Going with a Koback-Finn combo corners the market on Toledo's run game against Eastern Michigan's middling run defense that surrenders 192 rushing yards per game, but it could constrain your ability to pay up at receiver. Still, Koback is a bankable running back on a slate that's sorely lacking those otherwise.

Jonzell Norrils, Akron ($5,300 DK, $6,8000 FD) vs. Ball State

Acknowledging recency bias, it's hard to ignore what Norrils did his last time out. He erupted for 155 yards and a score on 11 carries against Buffalo in Week 8. Norrils also saw double-digit carries in each of the first two games of the season, so there's precedent for him seeing a steady workload. I'll get more into Akron's expected game script in the receivers section, but even if the Zips go heavy on the passing game, there's still room for one of their running backs to push for double-digit carries and Norrils seems to have the hot hand.

Tyre Shelton, Miami (OH) ($3,700 DK, $5,900 FD) at Ohio

We're hunting opportunity with this play as Miami is facing one of the worst run defenses in the nation in Ohio. The Bobcats give up 223 rushing yards per game on 5.1 YPC, which puts them at 125th in FBS.

While Keyon Mozee leads the team in rushing, Shelton has worked his way into a significant role over the last few weeks. Shelton actually had the most carries in Miami's most recent game with 14. He didn't do much with those opportunities as he amassed just 46 yards but that marked his second-straight game with at least 40 yards on the ground. In a way, it's fortuitous for us that Shelton had a so-so outing with those 14 carries as it keeps him under $4K for tonight's slate. Seeing 10+ carries against a defense like Ohio's should pave the way to Shelton returning value at $3,700.

Wide Receiver

Justin Hall ($8,100 DK; $9,400 FD) and Yo'Heinz Tyler ($5,300, $7,400 FD), Ball State at Akron

Ball State has far-and-away the highest implied total on the board Tuesday at 39.5, making it a clear offense to target on a slate of this size. The Cardinals are also decidedly pass-happy with a 53 percent pass play rate that ranks 27th in the nation. Fortunately, it looks like the weather will cooperate with no precipitation and mild wind, so it's unlikely they'll be knocked off their usual offensive philosophy.

Hall is the alpha with a 26 percent target share. He averages 7.7 YPT on that high of volume, which is solid, and he has seen double-digit targets in three different games this season. Tyler is a little more volatile but he has seen 34 targets over his last four outings and has recorded 20 receptions for 251 yards and four touchdowns in that span. Fellow Ball State receiver Jay'Shon Jackson checks in at $6,100 and is a fine play in his own right but Tyler being $800 less with the same target share and more touchdown upside steers me in his direction.

Konata Mumpfield ($7,200 DK; $7,000 FD) and Andre Williams ($3,400 DK; $5,100 FD) Akron vs. Ball State

Akron has the lowest implied total on the slate, which is less-than-ideal of course, but slates like this require you to think outside the box with your lineup builds. Even with the low IT, this is a decent setup for Akron's passing game. Ball State has the worst pass defense on the slate by the numbers, allowing 236 yards per game through the air. Akron also checks in as a heavy home underdog, so it stands to reason that the Zips will be leaning on the pass game for the bulk of this contest.

Mumpfield has taken over as the No.1 option in the offense, seeing a 35% target share over the last three games. He has answered the bell with 19 grabs for 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns in that span. He's a particularly strong value play on FanDuel. Williams is a dicier play but you're betting on per-target explosiveness to pay off by playing him. He has seen just 3.3 targets per game over the last three games but is averaging 11 YPT in that sample and has found the end zone. If the game flow dictates a few more targets to Williams, he could return serious value on $3,400. Still, even if he sees his usual target volume, Williams has the explosiveness to turn in an efficient outing.