This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Week 10 Betting Roundup
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In Week 10 action, underdogs went 19-43 straight-up (SU) and 33-27-2 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets, including a 29-31-2 Over-Under result. Ranked home teams went 10-1 SU, 6-4-1 ATS for 60%, and 7-3-1 Over for 70% in Week 10. For the 2023 season, double-digit home favorites taking on a conference foe have produced a 78-9 SU mark but have gone a money-burning 31-53-3 ATS for just 37% winning bets. So, here is an area the market that has overvalued these home favorites, and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the regular season.
Over the past 11 seasons, fading double-digit home favorites taking on conference foes has been profitable in nine seasons, with only the 2018 and 2019 seasons seeing these favorites produce profits. The current ATS record at 37% ATS is the lowest over the past 11 seasons and will be the fourth consecutive season that fading these favorites has been profitable. The following table displays every conference matchup with a double-digit home favorite in Week 11.
| Date | Time | Day | Week | Team | Opponent | Site | Line | Total |
| 7-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Tue | 11 | Northern Illinois | Ball State | home | -10 | 43.5 |
| 8-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Wed | 11 | Miami (Ohio) | Akron | home | -17.5 | 43.5 |
| 8-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Wed | 11 | Toledo | Eastern Michigan | home | -19 | 46 |
| 9-Nov-23 | 8:30 | Thu | 11 | LA-Lafayette | Southern Mississippi | home | -12 | 53.5 |
| 9-Nov-23 | 8:30 | Thu | 11 | Louisville | Virginia | home | -20.5 | 51 |
| 10-Nov-23 | 10:00 | Fri | 11 | SMU | North Texas | home | -16 | 68 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Boise State | New Mexico | home | -26.5 | 60 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Clemson | Georgia Tech | home | -14.5 | 55.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Florida State | Miami (Fla) | home | -14.5 | 50.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Georgia | Mississippi | home | -11 | 59 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Kansas State | Baylor | home | -20.5 | 55.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | LSU | Florida | home | -13 | 63 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 4:30 | Sat | 11 | Middle Tennessee | FIU | home | -11 | 53 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | North Carolina | Duke | home | -11 | 50.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 8:30 | Sat | 11 | Ohio State | Michigan State | home | -30.5 | 46 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Oklahoma | West Virginia | home | -12 | 58 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Oregon | USC | home | -14.5 | 73.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Oregon State | Stanford | home | -21 | 54 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 6:00 | Sat | 11 | South Alabama | Arkansas State | home | -11 | 55.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | South Carolina | Vanderbilt | home | -14.5 | 58 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Tulane | Tulsa | home | -23 | 53.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | Texas A&M | Mississippi State | home | -18.5 | 44.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | UCLA | Arizona State | home | -17 | 47 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 1:00 | Sat | 11 | UTSA | Rice | home | -13 | 59.5 |
| 11-Nov-23 | 4:00 | Sat | 11 | Utah State | Nevada | home | -16.5 | 56 |
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College Football Betting Algorithm
The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 49-15 SU (77%) wins and 43-18-3 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015. The requirements are:
· Bet on home teams from Week 7 on to the end of the regular season.
· Home team is averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game.
· Home team allowed less than 100 rushing yards.
· The guest is averaging 140 to 190 rushing yards per game.
If the total in these games is priced between 60 and 70 points, these home teams have gone 11-4 SU (73%) and 12-3 ATS for 80% winning bets since 2015. This algorithm targets a betting situation on the Kansas Jayhawks when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big-12 Conference showdown.
The total for this game is currently priced at 61.5 points, with Kansas priced as a 4.5-point home favorite. Kansas ranks 17th nationally, averaging 192 rushing yards per game, and Texas Tech ranks 49th, averaging 167 rushing yards per game, satisfying the algorithm's requirements.
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College Football Expert Picks for Week 11
Ranked Underdogs to Watch in Week 11 Based on the Models
In Week 11 action, there are two marquee matchups involving ranked teams, with the home team priced as the underdog. Starting at Noon EST, No. 11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten) will host No. 2 Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. Penn State is currently priced as a 4.5-point underdog with a total of 43.5 points.
The second conference matchup features the No. 12 Missouri Tigers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) playing host to the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at Memorial Stadium with a scheduled start time at 3:30 PM EST. Despite being the higher-ranked team in the latest AP poll, Missouri is priced as a 1.5-point underdog with a posted total of 58.5 points.
College Football Best Bet for Week 11: Penn State +4.5 points over Michigan (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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With the additions of many PAC-12 programs that are entering the Big Ten Conference next season, this will be the last time that Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State play their annual round-robin tournament that has determined many Big Ten Championship and has had major National Championship implications. The Big Ten has just three teams in the most recent AP polls, but all three of them are from the East Division of the Big Ten.
In the first game of the three-game round-robin, Penn State went to Ohio State as a 4-point underdog and lost 20-12 in a defensive battle. The third and final game will occur in Week 13 when Michigan will host Ohio State. If Penn State wins over Michigan this week and then Michigan defeats Ohio State in Week 13, all three teams will be tied with one loss each in conference and overall play.
The Big Ten Conference has a rather complex decision tree in place for these types of tie-breaker situations, and it is possible that Penn State could be the East Division Champion and play in the Big Ten Championship game if all three teams end the regular season with one loss each in conference play. All three teams would reach the fifth tiebreaker, which is the best cumulative record of the non-divisional conference opponents each team played.
Penn State has played West Division-leading Iowa (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten), Illinois (4-5, 2-4 Big Ten), and Northwestern (4-5,2-4 Big Ten) in the West Division. So, their cumulative conference record is 8-10. Ohio State has played Purdue (2-7, 1-5 Big Ten), Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), and has a date with Minnesota (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) in Week 12. It is unlikely that Ohio State will lose to Minnesota, which would make their record a cumulative 7-10 on the season. Michigan has played Nebraska (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), Minnesota (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten), and Purdue (2-7, 1-5 Big Ten). Right now, Penn State has a one-game lead in this tiebreaker with three weeks remaining that feature Big Ten West Division teams facing each other, and those results are as important as it is for Penn State to defeat Michigan on Saturday.
I do like Penn State to defeat Michigan. The betting line in early action has seen a large wave of betting focused on Michigan, which has moved the line a bit higher, and the market may get to 6 or even 6.5 points before the kickoff.
Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit quarterback Drew Allar is having a great season, having completed 63% of his pass attempts for 1,895 yards, including 20 touchdowns and just one interception. The ground attack is one of the best behind arguably the best offensive line in the nation. Running back Kaytron Allen has gained 573 yards and has scored four rushing TDs, while teammate Nicholas Singleton has gained 480 yards and scored a team-high seven rushing TDs.
This running back tandem was the first pair of true freshmen to each gain 700 or more rushing yards in Big Ten Conference history. Singleton became the third freshman to gain over 1,000 rushing yards, joining current New Giants running back Saquon Barkley (2015) and D.J. Dozier (1983).
An 88% ATS Betting Algorithm Supporting Penn State
Supporting this best-bet opportunity is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has amassed a 26-7 ATS record, good for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are simply to bet on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are coming off a dominant game in which they outgained that foe by at least 175 total yards. And if our home dog is facing a ranked foe, they have gone to a 9-7 SU record and a 14-2 ATS mark, good for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.
