The 12-team College Football Playoff is quickly becoming a college football betting staple for futures wagering, in its second season under this format.
Which teams will back up their recruiting rankings and preseason hype? And will anybody make a Cinderella run the way Indiana and Arizona State did last year in the inaugural 12-team Playoff? Here we go with our updated projection of the CFP field for the 2025 season after Week 5.
Projected College Football Playoff Field For 2025
Seed, Team | Conference | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
1. Ohio State | Big Ten | 4-0 (1-0) |
2. Miami | ACC | 4-0 (0-0) |
3. Oregon | Big Ten | 5-0 (2-0) |
4. Ole Miss | SEC | 5-0 (3-0) |
5. Texas A&M | SEC | 4-0 (1-0) |
6. Penn State | Big Ten | 3-1 (0-1) |
7. Georgia | SEC | 3-1 (1-1) |
8. Iowa State | Big 12 | 5-0 (2-0) |
9. Oklahoma | SEC | 4-0 (1-0) |
10. Alabama | SEC | 3-1 (1-0) |
11. Texas Tech | Big 12 | 4-0 (1-0) |
12. Tulane | American | 4-1 (0-0) |
Of note for customers at sports betting sites contemplating wagers on college football: The seeding format has changed from last year's inaugural run at a 12-team field.
For the 2025 College Football Playoff, the teams will be seeded in order of their final CFP ranking, with no first-round byes guaranteed for conference champions. The five highest-ranked conference champions – including one from the Group of Five leagues – will be guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Last year, the top four seeds (and first-round byes) were awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions, which led to ninth-ranked Boise State receiving the No. 3 seed and Big 12 champion Arizona State, which was 12th in the final CFP rankings, getting the No. 4 seed.
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Top CFP Contenders
Chaos continues to be the order of the day (or maybe disorder?) in the CFP projections. We still have five SEC teams making the field, but Mississippi and Alabama crashed their way into our top 12 this week at the expense of Texas and LSU.
Oregon jumps to No. 3 after Saturday's overtime victory at Penn State, slotting in behind Ohio State and Miami. The Ducks and Buckeyes don't meet in the regular season, but they might be on track to square off in the Big Ten title game in December.
Georgia remains among the top 12 because, although the Crimson Tide seem to own the Bulldogs, we're not sure that anybody else is on UGA's level in the SEC yet. Ole Miss, which rockets into the field this week after defeating LSU on Saturday, has a chance to prove us wrong and shake up CFP futures wagering again on Oct. 18 in Athens.
As for Bama, the big bounceback is underway after the Week 1 loss at Florida State, thanks to a 24-21 win at Georgia on Saturday.
And Texas Tech enters this week, giving us two Big 12 teams, after FSU's stunning loss on Friday at Virginia. The Seminoles can make a case for jumping right back in if they upset visiting Miami this weekend in Tallahassee. College football odds operators have installed the Hurricanes as the favorite by 4.5 points as of Sept. 29.
College Football Playoff Bubble Watch
Team, Conference | Odds | 2025 (Overall, Conference) |
Indiana, Big Ten | +135 | 5-0 (2-0) |
Texas, SEC | -160 | 3-1 (0-0) |
LSU, SEC | +170 | 4-1 (1-1) |
Georgia Tech, ACC | +220 | 5-0 (2-0) |
Tennessee, SEC | +250 | 4-1 (1-1) |
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We have one of last year's CFP darlings, Indiana, at the top of our CFP Bubble Watch this week. We're still not ready to put them into the 12-team field for the same reasons as last week: We don't think the Hoosiers will win Oct. 11 at Oregon, we don't think they will win Nov. 8 at Penn State and we don't think a 10-2 record with that schedule gets IU in the CFP.
At bet365, Indiana is tied for fourth with Michigan at +1000 odds to win the Big Ten, behind Oregon (+160), Ohio State (+180) and Penn State (+600).
The SEC race continues to be a big jigsaw puzzle with little clarity. And that puzzle is like an offensive line: We need to set the edges.
LSU falls into this category now after that loss at Ole Miss, and Texas has dropped out because other SEC teams have simply proven more so far.
At FanDuel, Ohio State is the national title favorite at +500 odds, followed by Oregon (+600), Texas (+700), Alabama (+800), Penn State (+850) and Georgia (+1000).
College Football Playoff 2025 Q&A
Q: Who is projected as the No. 1 seed in the 2025 College Football Playoff?
A: Ohio State currently holds the top seed in our projected 2025 College Football Playoff field with a 4-0 record (1-0 in Big Ten play). The Buckeyes' strong early-season wins put them ahead of Miami, Oregon and Ole Miss in the projected playoff field.
Q: Which SEC teams are in the 2025 College Football Playoff picture?
A: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, Oklahoma and Alabama all appear in the Top 10, with Tennessee and LSU on the bubble. The SEC's depth makes it the most competitive conference in the playoff race this year.
Q: What teams are on the 2025 College Football Playoff bubble?
A: Indiana (+135), Texas (-160), LSU (+170), Georgia Tech (+220), and Tennessee (+250) are considered bubble teams. Each has strong starts, but upcoming conference games will determine whether they can secure a playoff spot.
