This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Betting Odds and Best Bets
Get in on the college football bowl season for 2023 with ESPN BET promo code ROTO featuring a $250 bonus bet offer! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, we have you covered.
The Tar Heels will stay in state for their bowl game, heading to Charlotte for Wednesday's game. They limp in, losers of two straight while failing to cover in three straight and four of five. Overall, UNC sits at 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, with the over cashing at a 6-5-1 mark. West Virginia won't travel too far here, either. The Mountaineers closed their season relatively well, winning four of their final five. They come in at an identical 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS with the total going over eight times in 12 games, including three straight and six of seven.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Betting Odds
Spread: West Virginia -6.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 55.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: West Virginia -225 (BetMGM); North Carolina +210 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
This line opened at (-3) in favor of the Mountaineers, and that looks glorious for those who jumped in early. Following a plethora of opt-outs and transfers at North Carolina, it's shot up to its current level. There are a few secondary spots that are still showing (-5), but they are outliers.
The total seems to be plummeting, opening around 57 depending on the book, and is now down at least a field goal. More on that below, but it's a trend worth monitoring. Are we getting opt-outs that aren't being mentioned in the lead up to kickoff?
Somewhat curiously, we've got pretty wide ranges on the moneyline for both sides. UNC is as low as (+185) at BetMGM, so it's no surprise that's where we find the best value on the Mountaineers. Conversely, West Virginia is as high as (-260) at Caesars. I'm not huge on shopping odds, but there's enough disparity here to make it worthwhile.
Join the bowl season fun with a Caesars Sportsbook promo code featuring a $1,000 first-bet offer.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Betting Picks
We'll get the ugly out of the way first. North Carolina is severely depleted but in numbers and high-end talent. Unofficially, I've counted 18 transfers for the Heels and four NFL declarations who won't be suiting up. Notably, QB Drake Maye and WR Devontez Walker, but the Heels will also be without center Corey Gaynor and LB Cedric Gray. Injuries have also sucked the tight end position dry for UNC. The offensive losses are obviously as significant as can be. West Virginia has seen 14 players enter the portal, but most appear to be hits to their depth.
Conner Harrell is set to start under center for UNC, and he has all of six career pass attempts, four coming against an overmatched Campbell side. If there's any silver lining for UNC, they do still have RB Omarion Hampton, and will get WR Kobe Paysour back from injury. While it will be tough to back Harrell, I do have some confidence in UNC's ability to score. The system remains the same, and the skill talent around Harrell is stout.
But what seems to be the most trustworthy angle in this game is how bad UNC's defense has been. They've allowed 31 or more points in six straight (outside of Campbell), with an average of 37.2 points surrendered. They're 89th against the run overall and 102nd against the pass. West Virginia seems to have their offense rolling, averaging 31.6 points, a number they've eclipsed in six of their last seven. They seem to be coming in with all of their pieces. Garrett Greene had multiple touchdown passes in three of four and five of seven and is a threat with his legs, rushing for 12 touchdowns over his final eight. Jahiem White has taken over in the backfield, topping 100 yards in three of four, while CJ Donaldson still looms as a physical option, and Devin Carter gives them a big-bodied receiver on the outside.
I do think North Carolina is completely disinterested in this game and that West Virginia will win somewhat easily. But I feel the most confident in the Mountaineers scoring in bunches, and some of UNC's new players auditioning for a 2024 role will offer some offense as well.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Best Bet: over 55.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Jump in on bowl season with a BetMGM bonus code sporting a $1,500 bonus bet offer.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Predictions
West Virginia is a solid run defense. They were gashed by Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon, but who wasn't? They were otherwise. UNC's ability to score and/or remain competitive has to be through Hampton, backup British Brooks, and potentially some ball control. That, unfortunately, hasn't been their style all season, however, as they play fast. And that's not going to work for them, as West Virginia is more than capable of beating up on this defense as everyone else has for much of the year.
The Heels will score enough not to put the over onus squarely on the Mountaineers, but I don't think they'll be overly competitive.
West Virginia 35-21.
