This article will go game by game for the wild-card slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits in the alignment data of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. The corners named will parenthetically cite the rank of their coverage grade from Pro Football Focus from the 2020 season.
Receivers very rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formational quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection against an average secondary matchup.
GB vs LAR
GREEN BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
Davante Adams is going to get the Jalen Ramsey treatment and there might not be much Green Bay can do about it. Slot looks for Adams might be one way to get him out of Ramsey's territory, and we can probably expect Matt LaFleur to try exactly that, but even slot corner Troy Hill
This article will go game by game for the wild-card slate looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits in the alignment data of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. The corners named will parenthetically cite the rank of their coverage grade from Pro Football Focus from the 2020 season.
Receivers very rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formational quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. Even against a bad corner, a good receiver can be denied the opportunity if the pass rush or something else outside his control complicates things. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.
Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection against an average secondary matchup.
GB vs LAR
GREEN BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
Davante Adams is going to get the Jalen Ramsey treatment and there might not be much Green Bay can do about it. Slot looks for Adams might be one way to get him out of Ramsey's territory, and we can probably expect Matt LaFleur to try exactly that, but even slot corner Troy Hill (75.7 PFF) has been very effective this year. Good as he might be, Hill is also smallish (5-10, 180), and against Allen Lazard he'll be at a profound size disadvantage. Hill and Lazard both ran 4.55-second 40s at their respective combines, but Lazard was nearly 50 pounds heavier (6-5, 227) than Hill. That stuff can matter in close quarters. Darious Williams (79.6 PFF) is also small and at similar risk as Hill, but Williams has more speed to work with at least. Marquez Valdes-Scantling therefore won't outrun Williams, but at six inches taller and more than 20 pounds heavier, MVS can probably get the better of Williams in a rebounding contest. If MVS can hold on to the ball, anyway.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Davante Adams
Even: Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
RAMS WIDE RECEIVERS
Perhaps they change something here, but the Packers have generally lined up killer corner Jaire Alexander (90.6 PFF) on the left side, meaning the Rams can simply choose to line up Robert Woods on the offense's left (the defense's right) in order to line him up against the awful Kevin King instead. Woods and Cooper Kupp should both see a bit of Chandon Sullivan (65.4 PFF) in the slot, though Sullivan should more so be Kupp's concern. Josh Reynolds can beat King if Alexander shadows Woods or if Woods lines up on the right. It's just hard to tell who will get those reps against King.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Robert Woods (downgrade if shadowed by Alexander), Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds (upgrade if Alexander shadows Woods)
BUF vs BAL
BUFFALO WIDE RECEIVERS
Stefon Diggs might see shadow coverage from the great Marlon Humphrey, but all indicators to this point suggest it isn't actually possible to stop Diggs with press-man coverage, which is how you'd normally use a shutdown corner like Humphrey. The Ravens would be better off using zone combinations against Diggs, but it's impossible to know their strategy ahead of time. Basically, as long as Josh Allen produces, Diggs is likely to produce too. It's hard to envision a failure scenario attributable to Diggs specifically. If Humphrey shadows Diggs it likely leaves Marcus Peters (69.4 PFF) against John Brown – a tough one to call. Peters is capable of making great plays, but he's also capable of blowing coverages, which is more likely to prove a fatal error against a receiver with Brown's speed. If I was the Ravens I actually wouldn't shadow Diggs with Humphrey – I'd let Humphrey cover the slot, where Cole Beasley could easily prove a problem if left against Peters or Jimmy Smith (72.7 PFF), two guys better suited outside. It's a conundrum for the Ravens.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley (lower to downgrade if Humphrey does not shadow Diggs), Gabriel Davis
BALTIMORE WIDE RECEIVERS
Marquise Brown should see shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White (77.9 PFF), who's generally well-suited to covering a small speed receiver like Brown. Brown can still beat him, especially if Buffalo gets too aggressive with the press coverage, because if White whiffs at the line of scrimmage he isn't catching up to Brown after that. White can probably keep Brown quiet as long as he uses some cushion, though. Miles Boykin has the speed to run past either of Josh Norman or Levi Wallace, but he telegraphs his routes so obviously that his speed just usually doesn't factor into the game. Willie Snead can move the chains against Taron Johnson (55.6 PFF) but is no threat to run away from anyone, so it's hard to see the upside outside of PPR scoring.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: Marquise Brown
Even: Miles Boykin, Willie Snead
KC vs CLE
KANSAS CITY WIDE RECEIVERS
Denzel Ward (74.6 PFF) has the traits to match surprisingly well against Tyreek Hill and thus a shadow coverage arrangement would make a lot of sense, but Cleveland hasn't used Ward in any such way and especially haven't had him exposed to slot coverage, so Kansas City can probably just move Hill into the slot to keep him away from the blazing-fast Ward and instead get him matched against Cleveland's helpless journeyman corners. If Hill is running against Kevin Johnson or Terrance Mitchell then the play is over before the snap – it simply isn't an option for Cleveland. So, in the absence of letting Ward follow Hill into the slot, they will likely need detailed high-safety double teams on Hill, especially in those slot reps. What that means in practice is abandoning man coverage ambitions and instead running cushion-heavy zone coverages to cut off Hill deep. That's how teams have played the Chiefs most of the year, and it's a structure that necessarily leaves open Travis Kelce, which is why Kelce has produced the way he has this year. It looks like it has to be more of the same here to me, unless the Browns inexplicably let Hill run one on one against the likes of Mitchell, who only mustered a 4.63-second 40 coming out of Oregon.
Demarcus Robinson is awful but if Cleveland runs all zones then it will be easy for them to overlook Robinson, so he could stumble into some lucky production particularly if Sammy Watkins is out. Mecole Hardman can torch any of these non-Ward corners, too, but Andy Reid often prefers Robinson for bewildering reasons.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
CLEVELAND WIDE RECEIVERS
Left corner Charvarius Ward (66.8 PFF) is big and fast while right corner Bashaud Breeland (72.9 PFF) is less athletic and more liable to give up a big play despite his generally productive season. Neither of them is likely to lose vertically to Rashard Higgins, and that fact should allow them to play with beneficial cushions to sit on Higgins' otherwise uniquely strong route-running ability. Donovan Peoples-Jones can beat them over the top, on the other hand, especially Breeland on a double move or some such look. Jarvis Landry should primarily run against impressive rookie L'Jarius Sneed (73.8 PFF). Good as Sneed is, a crafty veteran is often the most likely kryptonite for an otherwise talented rookie.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones
NO vs TB
NEW ORLEANS WIDE RECEIVERS
Carlton Davis (69.1 PFF) only played the left side last week after previously serving as a shadow corner at many points this year and last, but the reason for the change isn't obvious. It's possible that Davis isn't fully healthy, and him playing only on the left might have been an acknowledgment of the groin injury he's managing, or it might have been for some strategic reason that no longer applies in the Saints matchup. Indeed, Davis shadowed Michael Thomas in both of the first two games these teams played, a sample in which Thomas caught eight of 11 targets for 68 yards on 95 snaps – very poor returns by Thomas' standards. Drew Brees only threw for 382 yards between those two games, however, at a completion rate of 71.0 percent at 6.2 YPA, so Thomas' 72.7 percent catch rate at 6.2 YPT was actually slightly above baseline. Thomas should merely go as Brees goes, in other words, and the Davis matchup specifically shouldn't matter much.
If Davis shadows Thomas then that generally leaves Jamel Dean (79.9 PFF) to cover Emmanuel Sanders. Dean is a good corner, but as a tall fast guy he'd rather see a 6-2, 220-pound vertical receiver than a smallish dicer like Sanders, especially one with Sanders' route-running savvy. Sanders should also see some reps against Sean Murphy-Bunting (55.3 PFF) in the slot, and he's arguably Tampa's most beatable corner. Marquez Callaway should see both Dean and Murphy-Bunting at various points but holds no obvious advantage over either.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Marquez Callaway
TAMPA BAY WIDE RECEIVERS
Marshon Lattimore (57.2 PFF) seemed to shadow Allen Robinson last week, so we can probably assume he'll mostly shadow Mike Evans in this one. Lattimore is one of the NFL's more mercurial players and he's capable of totally blowing it, but he's also a very talented player capable of matching Evans' otherwise compelling talent. If Lattimore shadows Evans then in three-wide sets it would likely leave Janoris Jenkins (66.0 PFF) against Antonio Brown and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (61.1 PFF) against Chris Godwin. Godwin is such an obvious advantage over Duce that we can expect the Saints to apply extra measures there – as much as Godwin has the best on-paper matchup here, he also might be the one least likely to see a one-on-one look with his particular matchup. Brown should see the most single coverage.
Upgrade: N/A
Downgrade: N/A
Even: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown
