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Green Bay Packers (-3.5) (+100) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Nice, short number here for a Packers team that has won all three home games by double-digits. Both teams are expected to get their starting QB's back this week, with Seahawks QB Russell Wilson returning from a finger injury, while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers returns from the Covid list. While both teams' passing games will improve based on that, I think the edge belongs to the Packers, who are better on pass defense than the Seahawks. I also think the Packers have the edge in rushing, not only with the exceptional Aaron Jones leading the way, but also with A.J. Dillon, who has really emerged of late, and is now essentially splitting work with Jones (more rushing yards than Jones over the last two games combined). Overall, I think the Packers are clearly the better team, and this is the first game in perhaps a month when they'll have their entire passing attack on the field at the same time (minus Robert Tonyan, who is out for the year). Expecting another solid performance from the Lambeau version of the Packers.
Denver Broncos (-1.5) (-110) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Broncos turned in a surprisingly strong effort last week vs. Dallas in a game that marked the return to form of their No.1 receiver Jerry Jeudy, and also perhaps marked the emergence of RB Javonte Williams, who has performed at a high level all year but has simply lacked opportunities to carry the ball. That figures to change this week vs. the Eagles, who had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards coming into this week's games and have also allowed the most rushing attempts in the league (tied with Houston). Conversely, the Broncos' run defense has allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards in the league, which plays well against an Eagle offense that has done nothing but emphasize the run recently. Coming off a game where the Broncos had great success containing the Cowboys talented RB duo of Elliot/Pollard, I think they can have similar success here by stacking the line and forcing QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to beat them through the air, something they've had trouble doing all year.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) (-110) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49er pass defense has been quite effective this year, allowing the 4th-fewest yards in the league. That being said, they're facing the league's best passing offense in the Rams, who lead the NFL in passing yards while ranking second in touchdowns and fourth in yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the 49ers rushing defense has been decidedly worse, allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns (12) and 4.4 yards per carry. The Rams of course have a solid running game with Darrell Henderson, who should be able to pick up any slack from the passing offense if need be. The Rams meanwhile have an upper-tier defense that figures to improve this week with the addition of Von Miller, who missed vs. Dallas last week but has now had a full week of practice and should be ready to go here. This looks like a prime bounce-back spot for the Rams, who blew the game vs. the Titans early last week, with Matt Stafford throwing a pair of interceptions (including a Pick 6). Speaking of which, the 49ers defense has been very poor at creating turnovers, with only 2 interceptions on the year.
Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+250)
Even with Trevor Siemian starting last week and playing most of the game, Taysom Hill still almost scored a rushing touchdown, which isn't too surprising since he's consistently used as a gadget player down near the goal line. Now in a game where Siemian's status is unclear, and RB Alvin Kamara will miss with an injury, Taysom appears as likely to score as ever. In four games as a starter last year when taking over for an injured Drew Brees, Hill scored four touchdowns. With Kamara out, he clearly becomes their top rushing touchdown option. Just too big a price here for the goal-line gadget QB, who figures to see his role increase this week.
AJ Dillon over 43.5 rushing yards (-125)
As mentioned above (and last week), Dillon's usage has been trending upward, and he's been highly effective with the carries that he's gotten, averaging almost 5 yards per carry over his last four games. I think Dillon is a good bet for ten carries in this game, and a good bet to go over in what figures to be a positive game script.
Javonte Williams over 50.5 rushing yards (-125)
Similar to the above play, I feel that Javonte's role in the offense is likely expanding (or about to expand), and fits well here in what what figures to be a positive game script. With Javonte surpassing 100 yards last week on a season-high 17 carries, and facing a soft Eagles run defense that the Broncos will be looking to exploit, I don't think it's out of line to expect a dozen carries, which figures to be enough. Javonte is also a threat to break a long run at any time, with four carries of 30+ yards this year. Over his last four games, he's averaged 5.34 yards per carry. He's also among the league leaders in yards after contact. Tough, explosive runner in a good spot this week.