DraftKings Sportsbook: Divisional Round Wagers

DraftKings Sportsbook: Divisional Round Wagers

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

And then there were eight, or for our purposes, four games left. On the one hand that doesn't leave a lot to choose from; on the other hand, that gives us plenty of time to analyze the four games and see what picks we can pull from the different matchups. Let's take a look at who to consider from the four games this weekend.

GAMES

Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Rams looked very good Monday night and that was without Cooper Kupp having a huge game. This game is likely going to rest on the shoulders of Matthew Stafford and he looked great in the blowout of the Cardinals, especially throwing a perfect fade to Odell Beckham. Tampa has a lot of injuries that I'm not sure they can get past and even though there are holes in the Rams' secondary, the pass rush for them should make up for that. With the line at 2.5, I actually think it's probably smarter to take the Rams' money line at +125.

San Francisco 49ers +5.5 at Green Bay Packers

I think the spread here might actually mean something as I can see Green Bay winning but not in a blowout. The 49ers are solid on both sides of the ball and they should keep this game close using their run-heavy approach. The weather might play a factor but that shouldn't have a big effect on the game given the 49ers' game plan.

Buffalo Bills -105 Money Line at Kansas City Chiefs

 Did you think we'd get past this section without me taking my hometown team? I don't like that this line has gradually moved down this week from the initial 2.5 points so I'll just take the money line here. I'm not convinced the Chiefs' defense can slow down Josh Allen and company and I have more faith that the Bills defense can come up with multiple stops against Patrick Mahomes. All of that being said, we should be thankful that we are getting a Super Bowl-esque matchup as early as the Divisional Round.

PLAYER PROPS

Joe Burrow OVER 8.5 Rushing Yards - Quarterback rushing props are always a crapshoot but I think I have some facts to back this one up. Burrow rushed twice last week for -2 yards but in his previous three games had at least 10 rushing yards in each of those contests. Burrow has had at least two rushing attempts in each of his last five games so he'll run the ball if given the opportunity.

Deebo Samuel UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards - This number smells fishy after Samuel ran for 72 yards last week and 45 the week before. However, this is a much tougher run defense that he will face this week and in his previous four games before the last two, he hit the under in all four of those contests. If the 49ers are playing from behind they might have to scrap the running attack and go to throwing the ball more often than they would normally.

Cooper Kupp OVER 8.5 Receptions +115 - Kupp has exactly seven targets in each of his last three games so this number makes no sense. Looking at his season-long stats, it shows that outside of those three games he's had nine targets once, and then double-digit targets in the rest of his games. You can beat Tampa through the air, on the ground not-so-much. Look for Matthew Stafford to be throwing a lot and Kupp being one of the benefactors of that.

PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS

Davante Adams -135 - If you're stuck trying to figure out who the goal line back is between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, look no further. The answer is Adams who has 29 touchdowns over his last two seasons. The Packers aren't going to deviate from their normal game plan and there should be plenty of Davante involved Saturday. I thought this number would be more around -150 so take advantage of this while it's available.

Derrick Henry -190 - I don't like laying odds this big but Henry is in line to get his normal, heavy workload which usually means a trip into the end zone. Henry has 27 touchdowns in his last 24 games which is why the -190 number is where it is. The Bengals are a bit banged up on defense and even when they're healthy, they're a below-average defense at stopping the run.

Mecole Hardman +300 - Finally, I get to someone with great odds this week in what's supposed to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. Hardman just missed a trip to the end zone on a kick return and the Bills are without their top corner, Tre'Davious White. It's easy to see a scenario where Hardman gets loose for a long score in a game that should be a shootout.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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