Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars for Week 7
This interconference clash is the latest installment of this year's International Series, but it will be missing one of its biggest names. Puka Nacua, will sit out due to the ankle injury he suffered in Week 6. His absence clearly has plenty of ripple effects, for both his team and the betting outlook for the game overall.
With an intriguing set of circumstances at play, we break down odds and best bets for this London battle.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Rams -155 (BetMGM) / Jaguars +145 (ESPN Bet)
Point spread: Rams -3 (BetRivers) / Jaguars +3.5 (ESPN Bet)
Totals: Over 44.5 points (BetMGM) / Under 44.5 points (DraftKings)
The spread for this game has enjoyed relative stability, despite uncertainty around Nacua's status. The Jaguars were 3.5-point underdogs before Week 6 kicked off, and although the number was bet down to 2.5 earlier in the week, it's entering the weekend back up to as much as 3.5
In contrast, the total has seen the kind of dip you'd expect Nacua's confirmed absence to generate. The number was at 47.5 points before Week 6 action, but a steady decline began after it became evident the star receiver's injury could keep him out, and it's settled at 44.5 less than 48 hours from kickoff.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Picks
The Rams' offense is centered on Nacua, thus removing him from the equation has a seismic effect. Nacua did miss six games last season, a stretch where Los Angeles went 2-4. This season, Sean McVay and co. are seemingly more prepared to at least partly withstand the blow of his absence due to the presence of Davante Adams. The future Hall of Famer has plenty left in the tank and has already displayed plenty of chemistry with his latest quarterback, Matthew Stafford.
Naturally, the presence of versatile running back Kyren Williams is also a big plus. He has already been a big contributor as a receiver early this season with a career-high average of 8.6 yards per reception and three receiving TDs. Nevertheless, facing a defense the quality of this year's Jacksonville's squad is a tall order without your best player available.
The Jags have given up their fair share of yards, but Jacksonville is allowing a modest 20.0 points per game – tied for seventh fewest – and has picked off a league-high 10 passes. They've only managed eight sacks, but they're also giving up the sixth-lowest completion percentage (61.6) and have a talented front that should start getting to the quarterback more often. That could well manifest against a mostly non-mobile Matthew Stafford.
On the other side, the Jaguars' offense is still a work in progress when it comes to offensive coordinator Liam Coen's scheme. However, Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas have finally started to get in sync, with the duo combining for 12 completions, 170 yards and a touchdown, not to mention another score that was nullified by penalty. Travis Etienne is also benefitting from running behind a line facilitating 4.9 RB yards per carry, and Travis Hunter seems likely to break out at some point considering his talent level and Coen's offensive savvy.
In addition to Nacua's lack of availability, the Rams run the risk of mostly being relegated to still trying to move to the ball through the air considering the Jags have surrendered the fifth-fewest RB yards per carry (3.65) and are ranked No. 3 and No. 6 in second-level and open-field yards allowed, respectively.
Considering the factors at play, I think a Jags upset is in play here. I like Jacksonville to keep any loss to three points or fewer as my main bet. I also like an SGP that gives them another field goal's worthy of points and combines it with the Under on a total that's considerably higher than the conventional number for this game, and banking on a busy day for Adams also seems prudent.
Rams vs. Jaguars Best Bets:
- Jaguars +3.5 (-108 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- SGP: Jaguars Alt. Spread +6.5 and Under Alt. Total 52.5 points (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Davante Adams Over 6.5 receptions (-106 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
Rams vs. Jaguars Prediction
Jaguars 23, Rams 20
The loss of Nacua was manageable in the second half against the hapless Ravens last week, but the full impact will be felt this week. Naturally, McVay's coaching acumen and the likes of Stafford, Williams and Adams will keep Los Angeles competent, but this is a talented Jaguars defense that will have more flexibility of how it plays overall because the Puka component won't be a concern. As a result, I see a tight win for Jacksonville in a setting they're very familiar with.
