This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Washington Commanders in Kansas City.
Monday night's game between the surging Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) and the sinking Commanders (3-4) is a tough call for a fantasy forecast, with one side seemingly at a great advantage due to injuries on the other. These two teams have clear enough tendencies in the average competitive NFL game, but if the script is abnormal due to one team being much less competitive than usual then it might raise circumstances where other anomalous outcomes occur with the fantasy production.
Marcus Mariota has to step into a hostile road environment with Jayden Daniels out again, but at least this time he'll have Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin back from injury. Nonetheless, the home-team Chiefs are favored by 11 points with the over/under at 48.0.
QUARTERBACK
It might be worth paying up for Patrick Mahomes ($11000 DK, $13000 FD), both because he projects well in general in this game and because it's such a headache to correctly guess which peripheral Chiefs receivers will produce in a given game. You could try to capture Mahomes' fantasy production by picking a sly combination of his relatively cheap secondary receivers, any of whom is capable of producing in a setting like this, but it's easy to get that question wrong, too. Any of Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, etc. could make an impact, but Andy Reid isn't going to tell us which ahead of time.
Marcus Mariota ($9200 DK, $12400 FD) is worth central consideration on this slate even with Washington such heavy underdogs. Mariota is a competent quarterback for most of Washington's functions – the main loss between himself and Jayden Daniels is that Daniels is one of the best deep-ball quarterbacks and Mariota is probably one of the worst. On dink-and-dunk passes, though, and especially as a runner, Mariota can more or less hold serve in this offense. There's a plenty good chance he's Washington's leading rusher in this game.
RUNNING BACK
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($7200 DK, $9800 FD) was a dud last week and hits the road as a double-digit underdog. Even with that the case, he's not an easy fade for this slate. This contest is notable for its lack of bankable rushing production – with Croskey-Merritt you worry about the game script being an issue, while the double-digit home favorite Chiefs tend to split their backfield production in a way that makes its utility difficult to capture. Perhaps the circumstances overall are not favorable to JCM's projection, but his reliability arguably grades higher than any running back in this game. With that said, Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols are good players who always produce for Washington when given the opportunity, and if Washington gives them a fair chance to play it could harm JCM's margins, which depend on favorable treatment from the Washington coaching staff to hold off Rodriguez and McNichols.
Isiah Pacheco ($7000 DK, $8200 FD) might split more snaps and carries than JCM does in Washington, but Pacheco still is arguably the best running back pick in this game. The Chiefs are heavy favorites for a reason, and if they're piling up points at ease a lot of it could be occurring by the ground game. Kareem Hunt ($3000 DK, $5400 FD) is a threat to Pacheco especially around the goal line, which could understandably make Hunt a popular bargain pick with the Chiefs double-digit favorites. As much as rookie RB3 Brashard Smith ($4000 DK, $5800 FD) is worth picking in his own right, Smith likely only played more than Hunt in Week 7 due to Kansas City making a laugher out of Las Vegas. Hunt looks like a tough fade for value reasons, though that also might make him chalky.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
The Chiefs passing game in general is a huge question for DFS purposes. Not the question of quality – Mahomes should post good if not great numbers in this game and with relative ease – but rather, the question of distribution. It's obvious enough that Rashee Rice ($9600 DK, $13200 FD) could be a fantasy monster in this game – the Washington defense likely cannot slow him – but the potential pitfall for Rice's fantasy projection is the fact that almost everyone else might be open, too. Travis Kelce ($8000 DK, $7400 FD) making a notable appearance in a prime-time game would be unsurprising for a variety of reasons, the most obvious ones being that Kelce is still an effective receiver and he benefits from a good matchup here. Xavier Worthy ($8600 DK, $10400 FD) rounds out your projected top three pass catchers for the Chiefs, and any of the three is capable of going off with enough usage opportunity.
With that noted, it still must be acknowledged that secondary receivers like Hollywood Brown ($5400 DK, $4800 FD, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2400 DK, $5000 FD), Tyquan Thornton ($2800 DK, $3000 FD) and even TE2 Noah Gray ($2000 DK, $1800 FD) are all capable of doing damage against this defense, and no one but Andy Reid knows how much any of them will play, or which ones will get prioritized usage. There are only so many spots on a roster, so the question of secondary pass catchers with the Chiefs could prove important for this slate. The less competitive the Commanders are, the more playing time might inch upward for these four pass catchers.
Deebo Samuel ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) seems like one of the safest picks on this slate, even with Washington's overall struggles. Samuel has emerged as Washington's primary slot receiver, so in this game he should mostly avoid Trent McDuffie and instead face off against the much more beatable Chamarri Conner, who is a safety playing slot corner for the Chiefs. Terry McLaurin ($8400 DK, $8600 FD) is a pressing question – an obvious talent who is more or less worth the cost, but what's less obvious is whether McLaurin is healthy enough and sufficiently rust-free to beat a corner as good as McDuffie, especially with Mariota at quarterback. It's probably the deep ball especially that Washington loses going from Daniels to Mariota, and it's downfield routes specifically where McLaurin is most uniquely dangerous. McLaurin's return might send Chris Moore ($2600 DK, $3600 FD) back to the bench, but it will be interesting to see how Washington balances the playing time of Moore, Jaylin Lane ($4200 DK, $4400 FD) and Luke McCaffrey ($3800 DK, $4000 FD) in light of McLaurin's return. It seems like Moore and Lane operate more on the boundary and downfield than McCaffrey, who to this point has been more of a slot/flanker type. McLaurin encroaches more on the utilities of Moore and Lane than McCaffrey, in other words.
Zach Ertz ($5600 DK, $6000 FD) is a good candidate to be the leading or second-leading receiver for the Commanders, making him a tempting bargain target at $6K or less on both sites. Ertz is fighting for slot snaps with Samuel, but Washington should run enough four wide and trips to get both players into the slot a sufficient amount. Tight ends like John Bates and Ben Sinnott are just blockers in this offense and are therefore uninspiring punt plays.
KICKER
Both kickers in this game are somewhat sketchy fantasy projections. Matt Gay ($4800 DK, $6600 FD) is questionable with a back injury and has made only 10 of 14 field goal attempts this year, seemingly before the occurrence of this injury. Gay did not practice Saturday.
Harrison Butker ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) is the preferred option of the two and has had some great seasons in the past, but those days are becoming increasingly distant with few new accomplishments in the time since. Butker somehow missed three PATs out of his 21 attempts this year and is only 12 of 15 on field goal attempts. Butker might be a good kicker still, but he's not very good. His projected game script in this particular contest is great, though.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Chiefs ($4400 DK, $6400 FD) might be worth more consideration than usual, because they are rarely such heavy home favorites and there aren't many scenarios where the Chiefs project to tee up their pass rush as much as this game. The Chiefs should acquire a decisive lead relatively early, and from that point the Commanders might need to throw the ball and invite the sacks/turnovers that might come with a backup quarterback playing in difficult circumstances.
The Commanders ($3200 DK, $6200 FD) are probably not an advised start here. Very weird things can happen and weirder things have happened still, but it would be almost like the NFL version of Michigan losing to Appalachian State if the Chiefs manage to lose this game with Washington at such a situational disadvantage. Even Mahomes' bad games tend to not be all that bad relative to mortal standards.
