This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 5.
Despite the ongoing struggles of their offense, the Jaguars head into Monday Night Football in Week 5 with a 3-1 record, carried mostly by the strength of their defense. Whether that defense can hold up against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will help clarify just how good that Jacksonville defense might be and how far it can take the Jaguars in 2025. Mahomes and the previously struggling Chiefs offense came to life in Week 4, and the question for them is whether that breakout was because of the return of Xavier Worthy or if it was just because they played the annihilated Ravens. With the Chiefs 3.5-point road favorites, something has to give. The over/under is 45.5.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10600 DK, $13800 FD) is no longer infallible, and even last week's big game against Baltimore isn't fully reassuring, especially as he faces a Jacksonville defense that has done quite well to this point. With that noted, this game is projected to be low-scoring, and if the alternative picks in this game don't add up to much anyway then Mahomes could still prove a smart pick even if he doesn't have his best game.
Trevor Lawrence ($9200 DK, $11200 FD) doesn't deserve the same benefit of the doubt as Mahomes. In what was supposed to finally be a breakout season under Liam Coen's direction Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game have mostly sputtered through four weeks. It's not necessarily all Lawrence's fault, but the dysfunction has persisted this far anyway. If Lawrence and Brian Thomas can't get it together then they won't have many productive games in general, and the Chiefs defense is far from friendly.
RUNNING BACK
Travis Etienne ($9800 DK, $11800 FD) has carried the Jaguars offense to this point, which both wasn't the plan and probably isn't sustainable all year. As long as he holds up physically, though, Etienne is a very good player and one the Jaguars need to win pretty much any given game. That's not to say rookie fellow speedster Bhayshul Tuten ($2800 DK, $5600 FD) can't also play a leading role in the Jaguars offense or/and prove cashing-viable at the same time. Indeed, rather than a true zero-sum game between Etienne and Tuten the reality to this point has been the Jaguars have generally needed both to produce at the same time in order to make up for the shortcomings of the passing game. Even RB3 LeQuint Allen ($400 DK, $2200 FD is a justifiable punt pick, though on his 15 or so weekly snaps Allen does a lot of blitz pickup as opposed to from-scrimmage functions.
Isiah Pacheco ($6200 DK, $8400 FD) is one of the biggest busts of the 2025 fantasy football season, playing fewer snaps last week than Kareem Hunt ($4200 DK, $5200 FD) – 32 snaps to 27 – and even rookie seventh-round pick Brashard Smith ($3200 DK, $3000 FD) ate into Pacheco's workload by poaching 19 snaps. Pacheco should be low-owned and therefore has some differentiation appeal on the single-game slate, but it seems like Hunt is the better conventional value and the same might prove true about Smith.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Xavier Worthy ($8800 DK, $10600 FD) was excellent last week, producing 121 yards from scrimmage and showing the ability to play well through his shoulder issue. Worthy was also added to the injury report with an ankle issue Sunday, but evidently/hopefully that was just precautionary. Travis Kelce ($7600 DK, $9200 FD) really could use Worthy's presence to dilute the coverage attention a bit, because when the Chiefs don't have Worthy it's easier for defenses to focus on Kelce. Hollywood Brown ($7000 DK, $7800 FD) got off to a fast start in 2025 but has cooled off since then, seemingly losing ground the last two weeks to JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4800 DK, $6000 FD). Perhaps there was a matchup-specific game planning consideration in those games that doesn't apply in this one, but if the recent trends continue then JSS looks like a good value at those prices. Tyquan Thornton ($5200 DK, $7400 FD) has played well this year yet doesn't seem like a great value given that he played only 25 snaps in Week 4 (JSS played 57 and Brown played 38). Noah Gray ($2400 DK, $3400 FD) is a justifiable punt pick, and one due for a good game one of these days. Rookie fourth-round pick Jalen Royals ($1200 DK, $1800 FD) is probably the punt play at wideout over Jason Brownlee.
Brian Thomas ($10600 DK, $12600 FD) has been an enormous bust in 2025 and simply hasn't played well. Given his immense talent we can assume Thomas doesn't have his head right, but also we can assume that if he somehow starts behaving like a pro then Thomas' mammoth talent would result in instant fireworks. Thomas' visible failures mean that at this price he might not be very highly owned, which could be an opportunity to find high-scoring differentiation despite the leap of faith it requires.
Travis Hunter ($6600 DK, $4800 FD) is somewhat risky due to the potential of playing many snaps on defense, but he still could come through for his investors if only because slot defender Chamarri Conner is pretty easily the weakest part of the Chiefs secondary. Hunter should mostly run from the slot. Brenton Strange ($4600 DK, $4600 FD) is fairly tempting at tight end, as he is quietly on pace for over 80 receptions on the year. Dyami Brown ($2000 DK, $4000 FD) and Parker Washington ($3600 DK, $5000 FD) are probably best thought of as low-floor, low-ceiling options, but Brown's price is tempting. Tim Patrick ($1000 DK, $2600 FD) is a punt play, as are backup tight ends Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long.
KICKER
Both kickers in this game could prove cashing-viable picks, even if the game is low scoring. Harrison Butker ($5400 DK, $7200 FD) and Cam Little ($5000 DK, $6800 FD) can both strike from well beyond 50 yards, and if they both did as much in this game it would be far from surprising. If you want to fade the from-scrimmage production in this game from either offense, then you might want to consider the kicker in question as a bet to poach the production void.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either defense in this game could prove cashing-viable – potentially even both, depending on how low-scoring and turnover-prone the offenses prove to be.
The Chiefs ($4400 DK, $6600 FD) have a solid all-around defense and a few guys who can cause problems in the pass rush. Trevor Lawrence has looked sketchy at best in 2025 and while some offenses might be conventionally threatening to the Chiefs defense, the Jaguars are probably not one of them. Even on the road, the Chiefs are clear favorites given the 3.5-point spread.
If the Jaguars ($4000 DK, $6200 FD) pull off the upset then their defense almost certainly would have had a lot to do with it. Jacksonville might be without solid edge rush Travon Walker (wrist), which is a complication they don't need, but through one month the Jaguars defense has looked mostly solid in all regards. The Chiefs offense can't expect to just coast to victory here.
