With bye weeks on the horizon, Week 4 will be our last full slate for a while. We could see some high-scoring games, including when the Raiders take on the Bears. Let's dig into the Sunday FanDuel NFL DFS slate and highlight some of the top players to consider.
The Games
A lot of the focus of NFL DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
| Over-Under | Road Team | Road Team Total | Home Team | Home Team Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40.5 | Vikings | 21.5 | Steelers | 19.5 |
| 45 | Commanders | 23.5 | Falcons | 22.5 |
| 47.5 | Saints | 16.5 | Bills | 31.5 |
| 44 | Browns | 16.5 | Lions | 27.5 |
| 38.5 | Titans | 14.5 | Texans | 23.5 |
| 42.5 | Panthers | 18.5 | Patriots | 23.5 |
| 43.5 | Chargers | 24.5 | Giants | 18.5 |
| 43.5 | Eagles | 23.5 | Buccaneers | 20.5 |
| 49.5 | Colts | 23.5 | Rams | 26.5 |
| 46.5 | Jaguars | 21.5 | 49ers | 24.5 |
| 48.5 | Ravens | 25.5 | Chiefs | 23.5 |
| 47.5 | Bears | 23.5 | Raiders | 23.5 |
There are only two games with a total below 41 points, but there are five with at least 46; the favorites with the highest totals include the Bills, Lions and Rams.
Value Options
Jaxson Dart, NYG vs. LAC ($6,000): It's a changing of the guard at quarterback for the Giants with Dart taking over for Russell Wilson. Dart's skillset makes him an intriguing fantasy option right out of the gate. In his three seasons at Ole Miss, he ran for at least 495 yards twice, and he threw for 4,279 yards and 29 touchdowns last year. Given his cheap salary, he makes for a great tournament option for those who want to spend the majority of their budget at running back and wide receiver.
Cam Skattebo, NYG vs. LAC ($5,400): Staying with the Giants brings us to Skattebo, who is set to be their lead running back for at least the next two weeks. When Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder) went down early against the Chiefs last week, Skattebo turned 10 carries into 60 yards and a touchdown. He also caught six passes for 61 yards. The bruising back is averaging 3.6 yards after contact and has a broken tackle rate of 30.4 percent. Even in a less-than-ideal matchup, a hefty workload leaves Skattebo with plenty of upside at his salary.
Other Value Options
QB Bryce Young, CAR at NE ($6,700)
QB Brock Purdy, SF vs. JAC ($6,600)
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NE ($6,600)
RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE vs. CAR ($5,700)
RB Jeremy McNichols WAS at ATL ($5,400)
WR Xavier Worthy, KC vs. BAL ($6,700)
WR Keenan Allen, LAC at NYG ($6,500)
WR Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. WAS ($5,700)
TE David Njoku, CLE at DET ($5,400)
TE Cade Otton, TB vs. PHI ($4,900)
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
The Giants have improved their pass rush significantly, but it hasn't resulted in better numbers for their defense. They have been picked apart through the air, allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game in the league; that's despite having eight sacks already.
Facing Justin Herbert ($7,900) isn't going to make things any easier. After averaging 29.6 pass attempts per game last season, he has averaged 36.0 this year. He has also increased his average target depth from 8.8 yards to 9.9 yards. The result has been 860 passing yards and six touchdowns. One of the top options to pair with him is Keenan Allen ($6,500), who has parlayed his 26.2 percent target share into at least five receptions, 61 receiving yards and one touchdown in each game this season.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears
The Seahawks didn't give Geno Smith ($7,200) a lot of opportunities to air things out, as he finished with an average target depth of 7.6 yards or fewer in three of the last four seasons. When he had an average target depth of 8.2 yards in 2022, he had the best season of his career with 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. His average target depth is 9.1 yards with the Raiders, leaving him to compile 831 yards and four touchdowns through three games. One of his top receiving options has been Jakobi Meyers ($6,100), who has a 24.8 percent target share and has finished with at least six receptions in two of three games.
The Raiders duo presents an intriguing cost-effective DFS stack for their matchup with the Bears, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league. The Bears' struggles to stop the pass are a result of multiple injuries in their secondary, including cornerback Jaylon Johnson (groin) being on IR. Cornerback Kyler Gordon (hamstring) is also expected to be sidelined again.
Other Stacks to Consider
Bills – Josh Allen ($9,000) + Dalton Kincaid ($5,600)
Bears – Caleb Williams ($7,500) + Rome Odunze ($7,200)
Falcons – Michael Penix Jr. ($6,500) + Drake London ($7,100)
High-Price Heroes
Christian McCaffrey, SF vs. JAC ($9,300): McCaffrey has arguably the highest floor of any player at any position for this slate. He already has 52 carries and 32 targets this season. He hasn't been overly efficient, but the high volume has resulted in 389 total yards and one touchdown. Even if Jauan Jennings (ankle) makes his return, the 49ers will still have plenty of opportunities for McCaffrey to shine with George Kittle (hamstring) and Brandon Aiyuk (knee) out.
Puka Nacua, LAR vs. IND ($9,400): Nacua has exploded with Cooper Kupp no longer in town, posting 29 receptions for 333 yards through three games. He was targeted 15 times against the Eagles last week and has accounted for 38.5 percent of the Rams' targets this season. The Colts are tied for the ninth-most receptions allowed to wide receivers, so don't be surprised if Nacua emerges from this matchup with another gaudy stat line.
The Smash Spot
Omarion Hampton, LAC at NYG ($7,000): Herbert and his receivers aren't the only members of the Chargers offense that is set up for success against the Giants. New York has been even worse against the run, allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league. Hampton is now the lead back for the Chargers with Najee Harris (Achilles) gone for the season. The initial results of his backfield takeover are encouraging, as he had 129 total yards and a touchdown against the Broncos last week. For the season, he has a 69.0 percent positive run rate and has averaged 2.8 yards after contact.
