Jayden Daniels posted 355.8 fantasy football points last year, a mark that is the 34th highest total of all time at the quarterback position. That is the type of rookie performance that should make Daniels one of the hottest commodities in fantasy football, especially after Washington added many offensive upgrades this offseason.
Visitors to RotoWire have conducted more than 16,500 drafts on the mock draft simulator plus 4,000 real drafts using the draft assistant. The results were intriguing to say the least, and we broke down the first four rounds here.
RotoWire drafters have Daniels as the fifth quarterback off the board despite him sitting at No. 2 in the fantasy football rankings for quarterbacks. Drafters also had nearly a half-dozen quarterbacks gone in the first three rounds. Does that make sense?
The Case for Taking Daniels as No. 2 QB on Board
Daniels ranked fifth in QB scoring last year in part due to equaling Josh Allen in fantasy rushing production. That Daniels did this despite having half as many rushing touchdowns as Allen shows that he may be able to exceed Allen's rush production pace with a higher volume of ground touchdowns. That's certainly possible since Daniels had nearly as many goal-line carries last year (10) as team leader Brian Robinson, who vacated 11 goal line rushes when he was recently traded to San Francisco.
Washington's coaches readily admit that, as good as Daniels was in many areas last year, he still had some limitations due to being in his rookie campaign. Those coaches have been working very hard on helping Daniels expand his repertoire, especially in the passing game.
The Commanders brought in plenty of help in that area, starting with the NFL player news detailing the addition of Deebo Samuel Sr. to the receiving corps. As good as Samuel can be when healthy, the most important upgrades may have been to the Washington offensive line. If those pan out as hoped, Daniels could see much improved blocking that makes him even more dangerous to opposing defenses and a higher-profile play in a fantasy manager's draft kit.
The Case for Daniels Dropping
Daniels had a historically great season last year. Unfortunately for him, repeating that type of greatness is historically rare. Only three quarterbacks have tallied back-to-back seasons with 355.8 or more fantasy points. Even worse for Daniels, the three who did this are Allen (2020-24), Jalen Hurts (2022-23) and Patrick Mahomes (2020-22). If Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, who racked up 430.4 and 372.8 points, respectively, last year, are added to this list, it shows just how much competition Daniels has to defeat to qualify for a top five fantasy QB ranking two years in a row.
The offensive additions also aren't guaranteed to pan out. Samuel hasn't played as well as usual of late due to a variety of factors, a group of negatives that helped make him available for Washington to acquire. Terry McLaurin is now on the wrong side of 30 and held out most of the summer. The offensive line upgrades may take some time to pan out, and it's possible they don't pan out.
If anything happens to McLaurin and Samuel isn't back to his formerly elite form, the Commanders have the makings of a mediocre receiving corps. Combine that with a set of unfavorable matchup metrics and there is some risk to selecting Daniels.
Where Should You Target Daniel Pick
The RotoWire rankings have Daniels second on the quarterback board, behind only Lamar Jackson. Despite the experts touting Daniels and last year's great numbers, the review of more than 4,000 drafts indicates that Daniels is being taken as the fifth QB off the board. Keep in mind, you can also use custom fantasy football rankings to create a list based on your league settings.
This pick corresponds to a consensus draft selection slot of No. 33. That's at the tail end of Round 3 in a 12-team league. Getting Daniels at that point could provide the best return on draft investment of any pick a fantasy manager makes in this year's drafts.
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