Underdog NFL Pick 'Em: Week 3
Week 2 wasn't my best showing, going just 2-for-8 on my picks, but we're continuing to build data points to work with and will look to bounce back in Week 3. It's still a bit early to use team stats to identify weak and strong units, but we are getting some strong indications of player usage in offenses. That will be the basis of most of our picks in Week 3.
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Higher
Chuba Hubbard 
vs. ATL – higher than 74.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Panthers' offense has been a big disappointment through two weeks. That doesn't mean it's doomed to be poor for the rest of the season, but Chuba Hubbard is the driving force of the unit for the time being. He's accounted for 26 of 35 rushing attempts by the team's running backs, and he's also run 62 routes with a 17.7 percent target per route run rate.
Hubbard has been inefficient on the ground; he's averaged only 3.7 yards per rush and accrued -0.3 yards below expectation per rush, so taking into account his total usage in the offense is a safer way to attack this projection.
Juwan Johnson 
at SEA – higher than 40.5 receiving yards
Through two games, the only tight end to run more routes than Johnson is David Njoku. Meanwhile, Noah Fant is the only player at the position with a higher target per route run rate than Johnson (28.8 percent). The New Orleans' offense isn't necessarily the unit we want to rely on, but he is the priority target for the time being.
Elic Ayomanor 
vs. IND - higher than 34.5 receiving yards
The narratives and data around the Titans' pass-catching options have changed over time. Xavier Restrepo generated some hype immediately following the draft despite not being selected, but he has yet to be active this season. Calvin Ridley was also expected to dominate targets, but he's had a disappointing start to the year, grappling with drops.
Instead, Ayomanor has been the most impressive pass catcher for Tennessee while displaying rapport with Cam Ward. Ayomanor already leads the team in air yards, yards per route run and targets per route run rate. This projection is likely to rise in future weeks, so now is the time to get ahead of Ayomanor's rise.
Rome Odunze 
vs. DAL – higher than 64.5 receiving yards
The Bears' offense hasn't reached expectations with Ben Johnson at the helm, but Odunze has been a beneficiary. He has outpaced DJ Moore by 51 routes run and has a 29.9 percent target share and 45.8 air yards share. Odunze's projection is a bit uncomfortable given his production as a rookie and what we've seen from the Chicago offense, but that's where the matchup against the Cowboys comes into play.
Dallas was shredded by Russell Wilson and the Giants' offense in Week 2 in the absence of DaRon Bland (foot). Bland began the week estimated as a DNP in practice and looks unlikely to suit up for an already shorthanded secondary.
Lower
Josh Jacobs 
at CLE – lower than 70.5 rushing yards
Jacobs has been relying on volume to be productive at the start of the season. That's likely to continue in Week 3 against the Browns, which makes this a risky selection. However, he's also been very inefficient (-0.67 yards below expectation per carry/3.6 yards per carry). Meanwhile, Cleveland's run defense is the one positive to take away from the team's start to the season. The Browns limited Derrick Henry to only 23 yards (2.1 yards per attempt) and Chase Brown to 43 (2.0 yards per attempt).
Joe Flacco 
vs. GB – lower than 229.5 passing yards
Speaking of inefficiency, Flacco has averaged 5.4 yards per attempt, ranking 30th among 34 qualified passers and 1.5 yards per attempt below league average. He particularly struggled in a matchup against Baltimore in Week 2 and now draws a very tough matchup against the Packers. Green Bay held Jared Goff to only 229 yards on 39 attempts and Jayden Daniels to 200 yards on 42 attempts.
Omarion Hampton 
vs. DEN – lower than 63.5 rushing + receiving yards
TreVeyon Henderson 
vs. PIT – lower than 52.5 rushing + receiving yards
Nearly every rookie running back has disappointed early this season, but this duo has reasons to be concerned about both their efficiency and role. Hampton hasn't produced more than this projection in his two games this season, and there should now be concerns about his role heading into a Week 3 matchup against Denver after he lost a fumble late in the fourth quarter of the Chargers' Week 2 win over Las Vegas. Najee Harris is getting back up to speed and should be relied upon Sunday.
Henderson was touted as a prospect not only for his rushing ability but also because of his ability as a pass blocker. That made his struggles Sunday against the Dolphins -- he committed three holding penalties, one of which was declined -- very concerning. Rhamondre Stevenson looks to be the lead back in New England, but the bigger problem for Henderson is that Antonio Gibson logged six touches in Week 2.
