Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher" and "lower" picks on Chalkboard.
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Higher
Jordan Mason 
vs. CIN - higher than 77.5 rushing yards
The Minnesota-Cincinnati game features key injuries on each side. Both teams are missing their starting QBs while the Vikings will also be without Aaron Jones. HC Kevin O'Connell said, "I'm not sure we could have much more confidence in Jordan as a bell cow kind of back" and that's all I needed to hear. I'm expecting that the Bengals, without Joe Burrow, will struggle to sustain drives against a stout defense and that the offense will grind it out on the ground, making things as easy as possible for Carson Wentz.
Kenneth Walker 
vs. NO - higher than 52.5 rushing yards
Walker looked like he was shot out of a cannon last week as he rushed for 105 yards on just 13 carries. He's one of the most explosive runners in the league when healthy, which he seems to be now and that coincides with Charbonnet sitting out Wednesday's practice with a toe injury. Add to that the Seahawks prime matchup at home against the Saints and the script should be perfect for Walker to see plenty of usage.
Caleb Williams 
vs. DAL - higher than 237.5 passing yards
Rome Odunze vs. DAL - higher than 61.5 receiving yards
A couple of things line up that really favor the Bears passing-game and specifically Odunze on Sunday. First, we just saw the Cowboys defense get cooked by Russell Wilson for 450 yards. Their cornerbacks, DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs remain injured. Second, Odunze is quickly establishing himself as the Bears' No 1 WR after posting 13 catches for 165 yards and three TDs on 20 targets through two weeks. Finally, Chicago hasn't really been able to run the ball with D'Andre Swift and no clear No. 2. It all sets up for Williams to have success through the air against a bad defense.
Cooper Kupp vs. NO - higher than 40.5 receiving yards
Lost in Jaxon Smith-Njigba's fast start to the season has been the reemergence of Cooper Kupp, who caught seven of nine targets for 90 yards last week. He leads Seattle WRs in snaps and routes run and should be able to take advantage of the soft matchup against New Orleans.
Tyler Warren 
at TEN - higher than 43.5 receiving yards
It's easy to see why the Colts spent a first round pick on Warren as they've been drawing up plays for him and using him all over the field. He finished with 76 yards in Week 1 and 79 in Week 2, catching 11 of 18 targets while seeing a 93% snap share. Indianapolis should see plenty of the ball as road favorites in Tennessee.
Lower
Ja'Marr Chase 
at MIN - lower than 70.5 receiving yards
Jake Browning at MIN - lower than 233.5 receiving yards
Part of the reason I highlighted Jordan Mason at the top is because I think Cincinnati's offense could really struggle without Joe Burrow. Jake Browning is serviceable and has looked ok at times in relief of Burrow but Minnesota boasts a top defense that will be buoyed by the return of at least two starters. Browning really focused on Chase last week and we could see the Vikings game plan for that on Sunday. On top of that, the total is low as the Vikings are expected to grind it out on the ground in Carson Wentz' Minnesota debut. If that's the script we're playing for and you're looking to increase your multiple, take a look at lowers for the Vikings passing-game. Carson Wentz' passing yards number is set at 214.5 and they wouldn't need him to throw for that many if all goes to plan. It's also fair to question whether or not he's still capable as he hasn't thrown for more than 163 yards in a game since 2022.
