Survivor pain was minimal last week, though it took a crazy Broncos comeback after being down 19-0 in the fourth quarter to bail out some players. Most of those who did not survive lost on the Steelers, who were intra-division victims of Joe Flacco. Not sure why anyone gambled on that game.
In my pool, seven entrants died, four on the Steelers. Of the original 451 entrants, 100 remain (22.2 percent).
On to Week 8.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLTS | Titans | 35.3% | 975 | 90.7% | 3.28 |
| FALCONS | Dolphins | 28.3% | 315 | 75.9% | 6.82 |
| BENGALS | Jets | 13.7% | 270 | 73.0% | 3.70 |
| Buccaneers | SAINTS | 7.2% | 215 | 68.3% | 2.30 |
| PATRIOTS | Browns | 5.2% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.26 |
| CHIEFS | Commanders | 3.0% | 537.5 | 84.3% | 0.46 |
| Bills | PANTHERS | 2.9% | 355 | 78.0% | 0.63 |
| EAGLES | Giants | 2.5% | 375 | 78.9% | 0.53 |
| 49ers | TEXANS | 0.6% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.29 |
| RAVENS | Bears | 0.5% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.14 |
| CHARGERS | Vikings | 0.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.13 |
| BRONCOS | Cowboys | 0.1% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.03 |
| STEEELERS | Packers | 0.1% | 155 | 60.8% | 0.02 |
Home teams in CAPS
There's no pot-odds play this week, but there are plenty of options with a lot of mismatches on the schedule. Six teams are at least a touchdown favorite, with two others at 6.5 points. Most of the teams below probably are still available too.
Picks are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts beat the Titans 41-20 in Week 3 and have only gotten better while Tennessee has gotten worse. The Titans have scored six offensive touchdowns in seven games this year. The Colts have scored eight TDs in their last seven quarters.
Buffalo Bills
After dropping consecutive games, the Bills are coming off a bye and face a Panthers team that has won three in a row. Those wins, though, came against the Dolphins and Jets, which are more like half wins, and a Cowboys defense that makes Swiss cheese look impenetrable. Carolina's average margin of victory in those wins is 4.3 points, i.e., they're just getting by. Does it matter that the game is in Carolina? Maybe. But the Bills are the better team.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are inconsistent — beat the Bills, lost to the Panthers — but the Dolphins are in complete disarray. After a couple of close losses, Miami got stomped by the Browns last week. It's not just Tua Tagovailoa and the turnover-prone offense; Miami's defense is a shambles. Bijan Robinson might run for 200 yards (last three games: Rico Dowdle rushed for 206, Kim Vidal ran for 124 on 6.9 yards per carry, Quinshon Judkins had a 46-yard TD run among his three scores). The Dolphins are unlikely to find their way at Atlanta where the Falcons have played their best games.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals being a 6.5-point favorite tells you how bad the Jets really are. Tyrod Taylor is the Jets' new starting quarterback, Garrett Wilson is still hurt and the team hasn't scored a touchdown in the last two games. The Bengals have played better under Joe Flacco, including a win last week against the Steelers, and now they face a Jets defense likely without Sauce Gardner, who has a concussion.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are on the road on a short week and without Mike Evans. But the Saints are 1-6 with an average margin of defeat of 12.2 points. Even if Tampa Bay's offense struggles, its defense should have few problems with a New Orleans offense that is 29th in scoring.
New England Patriots
Of the Patriots' five wins this season, they've beaten exactly one good team (the Bills). Their other wins have come against the Dolphins, Panthers, Saints and Titans, whom they waxed last week. The good news is this week's opponent fits that bill. The Browns snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a win over the hapless Dolphins. But Cleveland just doesn't have enough to threaten the Patriots.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are seven-point favorites and likely will take care of business at home against the rival Giants. But it doesn't seem to be a safe Survivor pick considering the Giants just spanked the Eagles a couple weeks ago. The ball can take funny bounces in games like this, and that's reason enough to stay away.
