With the retirement of Derek Carr, we decided to look at how an NFL team does the season after their starting quarterback retires. Since the 2015 season, we found that 10 players officially retired while being a starting quarterback. With training camp just around the corner, let's see what trends we can glean from the Saints' situation.
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Team Performance Post-QB Retirement
Average Record | 8-9* |
Average Win Percentage | .450* |
Average Division Standing | 2nd* |
Playoff Appearance | 1 out of 10 (10%) |
*Rounded to nearest whole number
Playoffs A Rarity For NFL Teams After QB Retires
As we can see from the data, a team whose QB retires typically hovers around .500 the following season, with the average record of the 10 teams the following season coming out to 8-9. While the average division standing of second isn't terrible, it speaks to the complete lack of playoff success for teams in this position.
Of all 10 teams analyzed, only the 2023 Bucs made a playoff appearance the season after their QB retired. Ironically, that was the year the GOAT Tom Brady hung up his cleats and Baker Mayfield became the man in Tampa. Mayfield and coach Todd Bowles helped the Bucs clinch the NFC South with a 9-8 record, and Mayfield ended up signing a multiyear deal with the club after the season. They repeated as NFC South champs last year.
Other teams in this study have not been nearly as lucky, with many failing to find their new face of the franchise so soon after their QB retired.
Rivers, Manning Difficult To Replace
No team has had worst luck with replacing QBs than the Colts, who were hit hard by Andrew Luck's shocking retirement in 2019. That year's team came up short with Jacoby Brissett, going 7-9 and leading the team to add Philip Rivers in the offseason. Rivers' strong 2020 season (the club went 11-5) is mostly forgotten due to their Wild Card loss to the Bills, but the Colts were once again forced to replace a retiring gunslinger after the year.
Then came a 9-8 season (no playoffs after a Week 18 heartbreak) with Carson Wentz, followed by a disastrous 2022 with Matt Ryan and Nick Foles. Ryan retired after the season, leading the Colts to sign Gardner Minshew before they took Anthony Richardson in the draft the following year.
Since Rivers' retirement, the Colts have not returned to the playoffs.
It's been mostly ugly in New York as well since Eli Manning joined his brother on the "Manningcast," with just one playoff appearance since 2019. In the two seasons after Manning retired, the Giants averaged 5 wins.
Other teams that fell short in replacing their QBs were the 2022 Steelers post Ben Roethlisberger (9-8), the 2021 Washington Football Team post Alex Smith (7-10) and the 2019 Arizona Cardinals post Carson Palmer (3-13).
Analyzing the Saints' Outlook After Derek Carr's Retirement
It's a similar story in New Orleans. The Saints actually started the post-Drew Brees era strong in 2021 with a 5-2 record out of the gate. But the team faded to 9-8 and missed the playoffs. In the ensuing years under coach Dennis Allen, neither Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill nor Carr was able to return NOLA to its winning ways.
Like the Colts, no playoffs appearances for the Saints since their QB called it a career, and the immediate future doesn't look bright, either.
New coach Kellen Moore as replaced Allen, but the depth chart after the Carr news is light. The Saints will enter training camp with rookie Tyler Shough out of Louisville, second-year pro Spencer Rattler and 26-year-old Jake Haene, who has made one career start. Sportsbooks are not high on the QB room for Moore's Year 1, with most operators giving the club around +1000 odds to win the NFC South.
And as the data shows, history is not on the Saints' side this upcoming season.
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