This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was fairly quiet with roughly eight percent of entries going out on the Saints, Panthers, 49ers and Falcons, while the heavily-owned Seahawks breezed through easily.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Jets | 26.90% | 1500 | 93.75 | 1.68 |
| TITANS | Lions | 23.10% | 525 | 84.00 | 3.70 |
| RAVENS | Jaguars | 16.40% | 900 | 90.00 | 1.64 |
| CARDINALS | Eagles | 9.10% | 260 | 72.22 | 2.53 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 6.90% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.81 |
| COLTS | Texans | 3.60% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.90 |
| Browns | GIANTS | 3.10% | 180 | 64.29 | 1.11 |
| Buccaneers | FALCONS | 2.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.65 |
| Bills | BRONCOS | 1.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.51 |
| PACKERS | Panthers | 1.80% | 380 | 79.17 | 0.38 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 1.60% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.59 |
| 49ers | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Seahawks | FOOTBALL TEAM | 0.80% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.24 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.23 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are an unusual amount of massive favorites this week and no team more than 27 percent owned. The Rams are a no brainer unless for some reason you think more than 60 percent of your pool will be on them, and you have the Titans, Ravens or Steelers available.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams need to win, they're at home and the Jets need to lose to get Trevor Lawrence. I give the Rams a 94 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
They've lost two in a row and will no doubt be focused while facing arguably
Last week was fairly quiet with roughly eight percent of entries going out on the Saints, Panthers, 49ers and Falcons, while the heavily-owned Seahawks breezed through easily.
Let's take a look at Week 15:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAMS | Jets | 26.90% | 1500 | 93.75 | 1.68 |
| TITANS | Lions | 23.10% | 525 | 84.00 | 3.70 |
| RAVENS | Jaguars | 16.40% | 900 | 90.00 | 1.64 |
| CARDINALS | Eagles | 9.10% | 260 | 72.22 | 2.53 |
| Steelers | BENGALS | 6.90% | 750 | 88.24 | 0.81 |
| COLTS | Texans | 3.60% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.90 |
| Browns | GIANTS | 3.10% | 180 | 64.29 | 1.11 |
| Buccaneers | FALCONS | 2.20% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.65 |
| Bills | BRONCOS | 1.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.51 |
| PACKERS | Panthers | 1.80% | 380 | 79.17 | 0.38 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 1.60% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.59 |
| 49ers | COWBOYS | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Seahawks | FOOTBALL TEAM | 0.80% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.24 |
| VIKINGS | Bears | 0.60% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.23 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are an unusual amount of massive favorites this week and no team more than 27 percent owned. The Rams are a no brainer unless for some reason you think more than 60 percent of your pool will be on them, and you have the Titans, Ravens or Steelers available.
My Picks
1. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams need to win, they're at home and the Jets need to lose to get Trevor Lawrence. I give the Rams a 94 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
They've lost two in a row and will no doubt be focused while facing arguably the worst team in the league right now. I give the Steelers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tennessee Titans
If Matthew Stafford doesn't play, I'd expect the Titans to run roughshod over a toothless Lions squad on both sides of the ball. I give the Titans an 87 percent chance to win this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens should smash the Jaguars, but Baltimore's defense isn't good right now, and Gardner Minshew gives the Jaguars a puncher's chance. I give the Ravens an 85 percent chance to win this game.
5. Green Bay Packers
The Packers typically bully weak teams, especially at home. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
6. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans had them in trouble two weeks ago before a fumbled snap at the two yard line, but this game is in Indy, and the Colts have Jonathan Taylor going finally. I give the Colts a 78 percent chance to win this game.
7. Buffalo Bills
I think this is a bad spot for the Bills, a road game at altitude after two impressive wins. But they're far and away the better team. I give them a 67 percent chance to win this game.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs should handle the Falcons, especially without Julio Jones, but it's a road game, and Tampa was lucky to beat the Vikings who gifted them 10 points on missed FGs and PATs. I give the Buccaneers a 66 percent chance to win this game.
9. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't been as bad on defense of late, and they have one of the top-two QBs in the league, but this is a tough road game against a stout defense. I give the Seahawks a 65 percent chance to win this game.
10. Cleveland Browns
The Giants show up every week, and the Browns are vulnerable on defense, but given how poorly a not-fully-healthy Daniel Jones played last week, the Browns are deservedly favored on the road. I give them a 63 percent chance to win this game.
11. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have looked bad of late, but this is a get-well spot against a weak Dallas team. I give the 49ers a 62 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Arizona Cardinals - I watched the entirety of Jalen Hurts' debut, and he might be as good as Kyler Murray right now. I'd stay away.
Minnesota Vikings - The Bears are not bad with Mitchell Trubisky taking over for Nick Foles, and the Vikings have laid plenty of eggs at home this year.
Las Vegas Raiders - They should have lost to the Jets, they got worked by the Falcons and Colts. The Chargers are sloppy but have the talent to win this game.
