This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week, roughly 23 percent of pools got bounced with the Seahawks, Steelers, Titans and Bears, but it was nearly a lot worse, as the Jets had the Raiders dead to rights, and the Jaguars took the Vikings to overtime.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| SEAHAWKS | Jets | 64.10% | 675 | 87.10 | 8.27 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 17.80% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| Saints | EAGLES | 3.70% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.95 |
| BUCCANEERS | Vikings | 2.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.77 |
| PANTHERS | Broncos | 2.50% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.96 |
| Packers | LIONS | 1.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.37 |
| Chiefs | DOLPHINS | 1.50% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.38 |
| 49ERS | FOOTBALL TEAM | 1.30% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.49 |
| Cowboys | BENGALS | 1.20% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.46 |
| RAMS | Patriots | 1.10% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.34 |
| Cardinals | GIANTS | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.40 |
| Falcons | CHARGERS | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The first question for this week is whether to play or fade the Seahawks who, according to the polling data, are 64 percent used and, per Vegas, 87 percent likely to win. But in Week 14, there's good reason to believe the data are distorted. There are probably second chance pools and also pools with different usage rules likely contributing to the number.
So if you're down to the end of your pool you'll have to see how many people have the Seahawks left, make assumptions and do the math from there.
To find the break-even usage number for the Seahawks, you
Last week, roughly 23 percent of pools got bounced with the Seahawks, Steelers, Titans and Bears, but it was nearly a lot worse, as the Jets had the Raiders dead to rights, and the Jaguars took the Vikings to overtime.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| SEAHAWKS | Jets | 64.10% | 675 | 87.10 | 8.27 |
| Titans | JAGUARS | 17.80% | 310 | 75.61 | 4.34 |
| Saints | EAGLES | 3.70% | 290 | 74.36 | 0.95 |
| BUCCANEERS | Vikings | 2.90% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.77 |
| PANTHERS | Broncos | 2.50% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.96 |
| Packers | LIONS | 1.60% | 330 | 76.74 | 0.37 |
| Chiefs | DOLPHINS | 1.50% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.38 |
| 49ERS | FOOTBALL TEAM | 1.30% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.49 |
| Cowboys | BENGALS | 1.20% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.46 |
| RAMS | Patriots | 1.10% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.34 |
| Cardinals | GIANTS | 0.90% | 125 | 55.56 | 0.40 |
| Falcons | CHARGERS | 0.50% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The first question for this week is whether to play or fade the Seahawks who, according to the polling data, are 64 percent used and, per Vegas, 87 percent likely to win. But in Week 14, there's good reason to believe the data are distorted. There are probably second chance pools and also pools with different usage rules likely contributing to the number.
So if you're down to the end of your pool you'll have to see how many people have the Seahawks left, make assumptions and do the math from there.
To find the break-even usage number for the Seahawks, you first calculate the risk ratio for them vs the next highest crop of teams, all of which are roughly 75 percent likely to win.
A Seahawks win/Titans loss is 25 percent of 87 percent = 18.75%. A Titans win/Seahawks loss is 9.75%. 18.75/9.75 = 1.92. That's your risk ratio, i.e., a Seahawks win/Titans lose is roughly twice as likely as the reverse.
So to break even by fading the Seahawks, how many people would have to be on them?
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if 64 people (64%) were on the Seahawks, and they lost, while the Titans won 64 people would get knocked out plus roughly another six on other teams. That means $1000 in the pool would be divided among 30 people for an equity stake of $33.33. If the Seahawks won and Titans lost, you'd 18 with the Titans and another six on other teams, leaving 76 still alive. 1000/76 = $13.16. $33.33/$13.16 = 2.53, i.e., the reward of taking the Titans ($33.33) more than justifies the increased risk of losing with them.
But what's the break even? I had to bust out a piece of paper and pencil to do some algebra, but suffice it to say in this case, if roughly 54 people are on the Seahawks, or a little more than half your pool, 60 people would be out, 40 remaining (1000/40 = $25), it's break even. Anything higher than that, you should pivot to the Titans, and the threshold lowers even more if you use a team that's nearly 75 percent to win, but lower-owned than the Titans.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
I don't love the Packers on the road, but the Lions are a weak defensive team, and the Packers offense has been a smooth running machine of late. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
This is a tough road game, but the Dolphins offense is below average, and no one can stop Patrick Mahomes right now. I give the Chiefs a 74 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Saints would have been better off facing Carson Wentz, but even so, they're better on both sides of the ball, and Jalen Hurts should have a tough time against that defense. I give the Saints a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars have hung around in most of their games this year, but I expect the Titans to bludgeon them with the running game and their big physical receivers. I give the Titans a 75 percent chance to win this game (but they're higher owned than the three teams above them.)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are coming off a bye and should be a tough matchup for the Dalvin Cook-led Vikings, but Kirk Cousins has the weapons to exploit their secondary, and Tom Brady has been up and down. I give the Buccaneers a 73 percent chance to win this game.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Check to see how many owners have them available, but if they do, they're almost certainly using them. If the Seahawks break the 54 percent threshold, I'd fade them for these other teams even though Seattle is quite obviously the overwhelming favorite. I give them an 87 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Rams -- Don't F with Bill Belichick.
Carolina Panthers -- The Panthers are at home and drawing a weak opponent, but the Broncos have the better defense, and this one is a crap shoot.
