Week 10 is upon us and we have a really interesting slate of games on Underdog in the Battle Royale streets. After a week with several games with totals above 50 points we are back to having just one game above the magic number. with bye weeks and the return of the international games, that leaves us only ten games to make our choices from.
As a reminder, the goal of this article is to highlight players among the top 30 picks via ADP in the Underdog draft games who we should be fading at their high rostership trading them in for less rostered players with similar or better projections.
QB Fade NONE
Right away we are going to start this off with an extremely boring choice and go with no one. This week the top QBs are going in a nearly perfect order. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both are projected to outscore the QB benchmark of 22 points more than half the time and the next two QBs off the board in Jaxson Dart and Drake Maye both project to eclipse the mark more than one-third of the time. Beyond that all QBs are going outside of the top 30 picks so the approach will be to mix and match the players going QB5 and beyond.
QB Target Jared Goff 
QB7 ADP 33.6
The Lions offense has had some struggles in the first year post Ben Johnson but overall Goff has still shown flashes of the player we
Week 10 is upon us and we have a really interesting slate of games on Underdog in the Battle Royale streets. After a week with several games with totals above 50 points we are back to having just one game above the magic number. with bye weeks and the return of the international games, that leaves us only ten games to make our choices from.
As a reminder, the goal of this article is to highlight players among the top 30 picks via ADP in the Underdog draft games who we should be fading at their high rostership trading them in for less rostered players with similar or better projections.
QB Fade NONE
Right away we are going to start this off with an extremely boring choice and go with no one. This week the top QBs are going in a nearly perfect order. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both are projected to outscore the QB benchmark of 22 points more than half the time and the next two QBs off the board in Jaxson Dart and Drake Maye both project to eclipse the mark more than one-third of the time. Beyond that all QBs are going outside of the top 30 picks so the approach will be to mix and match the players going QB5 and beyond.
QB Target Jared Goff QB7 ADP 33.6
The Lions offense has had some struggles in the first year post Ben Johnson but overall Goff has still shown flashes of the player we have seen the last few seasons. He has yet to hit that huge game we have gotten from him in the past but this matchup lines up extremely well for it. Typically we would like our pick to be a guy with a lower positional ADP but this matchup is too good for Goff to be this low-rostered.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Quite simply, the Washington Commanders defense is awful. with the season ending injury to Marshawn Lattimore it may be even worse. The commanders have allowed the 30th most points to opposing QBs and have allowed the most yards per attempt. Goff completes passes at an extremely high rate and combining that with the massive YPA numbers that the Commanders are allowing this sets up extremely well for one of those massive Jared Goff games on the last few seasons. The Commanders also are middle of the pack defensively against the run setting this up to be a big game through the air. Goff does not run so he needs to get there through passing TDs which also allows you to stack him with one of his pass catchers easily. The projections give Goff a 26 percent chance of eclipsing the 22 point target score.
Why The Market May Be Right
With the loss of Jayden Daniels, this is shaping up to be a lost season for the Commanders. The Lions are 7.5 point favorites and while they have not needed teams to push them in the past to keep throwing, this games has all the makings of a huge early lead that does not require a ton of work from the passing game. Additionally, we are getting road Goff in this one which has historically been bad news for his scoring upside. From a more slate specific standpoint, Goff only projects slightly better than guys with much lower positional ADPs like Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and Brock Purdy (if he plays). Goff will likely have a lower rostership but his ceiling being so correlated to his pass catchers may make it easy for someone less rostered to outscore him slightly and still end up optimal when paired with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta.
RB Fade Quinshon Judkins 
RB8 ADP 21.0
This is an interesting slate for RBs with a few guys being overdrafted slightly according to their projections. James Cook and Rico Dowdle both have top-ten ADPs with projections that do not align with that but their matchups are exceptional and there is possible context missing from their projections. Judkins has a similarly good matchup with a questionable projection.
Why The Market May Be Wrong
The perception around Judkins does not match the actual results. Judkins has average 4.1 yards per attempt which is behind players like mega-bust TreVeyon Henderson and boring players like Kenneth Gainwell. Judkins adds very little in the passing game averaging just under 1.5 catches per game. In order for him to pay off this ADP it requires him to score multiple TDs and with this game total at only 37.5 that feels like an extremely thin bet and this high rostership. Projections only give him a 5.6 percent chance of hitting the 20 point mark behind a few players with lower ADPs but also extremely similar to several players who do not get drafted very frequently.
Why The Projections May Be Wrong
The Jets took the deadline as an opportunity to sell off most of their roster including Quinnen Williams who was a stalwart in the run game for them. The projections do not quite factor this in and we also do not know exactly the impact that will come out of it. The bet being made here is that this makes the Jets a well below average run defense enhancing the play for Judkins. The Browns have been fairly pass heavy out of necessity so with them being slight favorites here the 16 carries Judkins is projected for may be too low and he may be able to easily eclipse 20 which makes his efficiency woes less impactful.
RB Target Travis Etienne Jr. 
RB15 ADP 35.3
Overall, this slate really feels like it gets thin quick at the RB position. There are a few other interesting plays but a lot of them come with some usage risk. Both the Seahawks and Bears duos have fun matchups but they may cannibalize one another to the point where the upside isn't there. So let's take Etienne in a difficult on paper matchup.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Etienne overall does not have an insanely great projection but on this slate he find himself in line with guys like Judkins at a fraction of the rostership. The projections give Etienne a 3.2 percent chance of eclipsing the 20 point mark and I think there is some nuance missing from that projection. The Jaguars coming out of their bye week heavily featured Etienne to the tune of 22 carries. The first time he eclipsed 12 carries since Week 4. The also have had quite a few WR injuries and despite trading for Jakobi Meyers may be willing to be more run heavy this week. The projection have a median of 14 carries for him this week but I think that number could easily be closer to 16 or 17 when you combine all of the factors including no CJ Stroud for the Texans. On slates like these with questionable scroll down options it is a good call to try to find guys where the projection could be failing to factor in context.
Why The Market May Be Right
The context that the projections do have, is that the Texans defense is exceptional. They have yet to allow more than 18.5 Half-PPR points to any one RB in a game this season. They allow less than four YPC and have yet to allow a single 100-yard rusher. The matchup is brutal and Etienne may just not be talented enough to really overcome it. He will need to find the endzone a few times or be heavily involved in the passing game in order to hit this number but the Texans pass defense may be even better than the run defense so it would not shock me to see Liam Cohen lean on his RB to try to get this division win.
WR Fade Davante Adams 
WR5 ADP 14.8
Adams is coming off five TDs in his last two games and finds himself in one of the highest totals games on the slate so this definitely seems like a great spot for Adams. However, the projections don't love the ADP and see some failure paths for Adams this week.
Why The Market May Be Wrong
The projections definitely no not hate Adams. They have him with a 25 percent chance to exceed the 16 point threshold we care about for WRs which comes in at WR7 on this slate. It's not a huge gap from where he is being taken but I think this Adams' projection is a bit more fragile than it seems. The three TD game Adams had a few weeks back came in a game where Puka Nacua missed and last weeks' two TDs came in a game Puka left early. This all changes if Puka is ruled out but in games with a healthy Puka, I believe that Adams do not quite have the ceiling he needs to justify his high ADP. If he were to drop into the WR8-12 range he is a great play but I cannot take him over some of the other players going in the same range.
Why The Projections May Be Wrong
Despite falling Snap Shares, Adams has only had one game with six or fewer targets this season. Even with Puka dominating when he's on the field Adams and Matt Stafford seem to have strong chemistry. While the projections may not love his ceiling relative to many others I think the market is responding to Adams having a significantly higher floor than many other WRs. He is highly unlikely to burn your roster which is highly valuable when you only have a few roster spots. The market likes stable safe plays and Adams seems to be one of the best options for that on this slate.
WR Target Garrett Wilson 
WR15 ADP 33.5
Wilson is set to return this week after missing his last two games due to injury. Before that Wilson was continuing to show that he has the talent to overcome any QB situation. It seems like Justin Fields will get the start again coming off an exceptional performance against the Bengals.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Much like Adams, Wilson has one of the safest roles in the sport. Even in the games where Fields has hit rock bottom Wilson has been able to generate massive target shares. The Jets' offense is lacking for playmakers so Wilson continues to have one of the highest target shares. Despite the Browns' defense being considered one of the best in the league, they have allowed 8.89 yards per target which is sixth worst in the league. This all hinges on Fields being able to avoid the massive negative plays that have plagued him but the projections give Wilson a 33 percent chance to eclipse 16 points a higher rate than Adams at a much lower rostership.
Why The Market May Be Right
The matchup may be too much to overcome. Before his exceptional game against the Bengals, Fields bottomed out in London against the Broncos. The Broncos managed to pressure Fields a ton which caused the offense as a whole to collapse. While the Browns struggle when players can actually get passes off, they are able to bring a ton of pressure with their elite front. This ADP is much less about Wilson himself and more about the Jets' offense. Wilson despite his role stability has very little floor in this matchup and could easily be a lineup killer.
TE Fade Dalton Kincaid 
TE4 ADP 26.7
We have a thin TE slate this week with Trey McBride looking like a clear TE1 and George Kittle and Sam LaPorta forming a strong Tier 2. Dalton Kincaid at TE4 begins a long flat tier of similarly projected players and is going TE4 due to his matchup with Miami.
Why The Market May Be Wrong
Kincaid is having a breakout season showing a lot of the promise that made him a first round pick. Despite all of this, he is still barely plying 50 percent of the snaps. He has been leading the Bills passing game but much like most of the TEs on this slate, he becomes extremely TE dependent to become optimal. While his projection is not much different than the others his TE4 ADP means he will be drafted in nearly 100 percent of contests. The fade is almost entirely about how his projection does not separate.
Why The Projections May Be Wrong
As stated Kincaid has been one of the Bills' best pass catchers. The Bills have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate and are facing off against the brutal Dolphins defense. He posted a 5-66-1 line the last time these teams played and he will be one week further recovered from his injury. He might not have a massive shot at the slate breaking score, but his floor and role should make it so that he doesn't kill a lineup.
TE Target Juwan Johnson 
TE10 ADP 35.6
With the Saints' trade of Rashid Shaheed more targets open up in what should be an extremely pass heavy offense this week. Johnson had a great start to the season and after a lull in the middle of the year he has posted strong target numbers again the last few weeks.
Why The Projections May Be Right
Johnson has a fantastic role in this offense and may be coming into even more target share after the Shaheed trade. He has a strong snap share even with the return of Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau. The Panthers allow the third highest YPT to TEs which should allow Johnson to make the most of all of his targets. While the Saints do not have a massive TD expectation, Johnson looks poised to be a focal point of this offense this week and could be Tyler Shough's safety blanket. The projections give Johnson a 30 percent chance of breaking ten half-ppr points.
Why The Markets May Be Right
Well the Saints are just not a fully functional offense. Tyler Shough struggled to move the ball against the Rams and while the Panthers' defense is not a world beater they are solidly average. The Saints have the lowest team total on the slate and even if Johnson is a focal point there just may not be enough offense to go around. On a flat slate like this, the separator at TE will be someone who likely finds the endzone twice and with a 17 point total Johnson just might not be the right player to bet on.
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, lineups, roster changes and more, head to RotoWire's Fantasy Football News & Latest NFL Updates or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.
