This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Preview
After a six-week break, the PGA Tour returns with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort has been the host since 1999 and brings together winners over the last calendar year and -- in a new twist -- also those who qualified for the 2022 TOUR Championship. Rory McIlroy is the only eligible player that elected to skip the 39-man event, which includes eight of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking and is headlined by tournament favorite Jon Rahm, who checks in with 13-2 odds. Last year, Cameron Smith -- at 22-1 -- defeated Rahm by one stroke to claim his fourth PGA Tour victory.
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Course Characteristics
Par 73, 7,596 yards
- Par-3: 3
- Par-4: 11
- Par-5: 4
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Past Five Winners
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 4.2
- SG: Approach: 6.4
- SG: Around-the-Green: 9.6
- SG: Putting: 4.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.4
- Driving Distance: 11.2
- Driving Accuracy: 16
Playing well off the tee will be key, as two of the past five champions led the field in that category. Kapalua favors distance over accuracy with tee shots, as the track has some of the widest fairways on Tour. I'll certainly be looking to target birdie-makers considering seven of the last eight champions finished at least 20-under-par, and Smith won at a record 34-under-par a year ago. I'll also look toward golfers who do well with approaches both inside 100 yards and outside 200 yards, as most second shots will come in those ranges. Those who putt well on Bermuda greens will also gain some favor.
Kapalua Conquerors
The following players, with a minimum of two appearances, have averaged the most birdies or better per round at Kapalua since 2018.
- Justin Thomas: 6.4
- Sungjae Im: 6.3
- Collin Morikawa: 6.2
- Jon Rahm: 5.7
- Patrick Cantlay: 5.6
With the field consistently hitting greens in regulation at over an 80 percent clip, we won't see many bogeys at all. Thomas has been the best in the field at piling up birdies, including 10 in each of the final two rounds last year. The oddsmakers have priced him as the fifth choice on the board at 11-1 -- generous odds considering the limited field. Priced just above him at 10-1 is Cantlay, who has a pair of fourth-place finishes over his last three trips to the year-lifting event. He played just once during the fall, but his T2 at the Shriners Children's Open came on the heels of a win at the BMW Championship. Cantlay looks like a great target both at the betting window and in DFS contests.
Drive For Dough
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 0.94
- Sungjae Im: 0.88
- Jon Rahm: 0.80
- Cameron Young: 0.73
- Tony Finau: 0.70
While many golfers played a light fall schedule, I'm still looking at those who have fared well off the tee, as that will be the key statistic to hone in on. At the top of the list, we find the reigning Player of the Year in Scheffler. He will be making just his second trip to Kapalua, but given how he is playing now, one would think he can improve upon his T13 result. Scheffler is the second choice on the board at 9-1. A bit further down at 20-1 we find Young, who will be making his first TOC appearance. His well-rounded game and superb length make him a great fit for this course and prime target outside the top choices.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Bets: Outright Picks
Sungjae Im (18-1)
Im is my darkhorse to have a breakthrough year and is capable of replicating what Scheffler and Smith did last season by winning multiple times. He notched three T2 finishes last summer and has consecutive top-10 results at Kapalua.
Max Homa (30-1)
With two wins in his last 14 starts, I can't pass up the value on Homa. He gained strokes in every category last season and is doing the same in this one, showing there are no weaknesses in his game. His results here have been average in the past, but he's playing better now than he ever was before.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Bets: Top-5 Wagers
Brian Harman (13-2)
Harman may not be a great course fit at first glance, but he did finish third in this event when he last played it in 2018 and is a solid putter on Bermuda greens. It's a generous price for someone who finished 2022 strong, posting consecutive runner-up finishes.
Seamus Power (15-2)
Due to its uniqueness there are definitely some benefits to be gained from having played this course before, and Power finished a respectable T15 last year despite losing strokes on the greens. His last three results -- T5, T3, Win -- definitely help his case.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Tom Kim (+100) over Collin Morikawa
This matchup should be even money in my opinion, and Morikawa is one of my least favorite targets in matchups due to his inconsistent play. I know he has three top-10s here, but he's also coming into this year with much less momentum than in the past. Kim is in better form, and it's only a matter of time before he's top-10 in the world.
Trey Mullinax (+100) over Adam Svensson
In a matchup featuring two players making their tournament debut, Mullinax's driving distance gives him the edge, as he finished ninth in that department while Svensson checked in 154th. Svensson won The RSM Classic but had just one other top-10 finish in 2022, and Mullinax posted two top-5s over his last seven starts.
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