2023 Wells Fargo Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on May 3, 2023 11:28AM EST

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads back stateside for this week's Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Following a pair of events featuring below-average fields, we're back to a designated event, although Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler -- the top two players in the Official World Golf Ranking -- have elected to take the week off. That leaves Rory McIlroy to headline a still-strong field as the tournament favorite at 7-1 odds. He is among 16 of the top 20 players in the OWGR teeing it up.

Last year, Max Homa -- at 40-1 -- picked up his second win at the event by two strokes over Keegan Bradley, Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young at TPC Potomac.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 71, 7,538 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Wells Fargo Champions at Quail Hollow since 2016

SG: Off-the-Tee: 22.6
SG: Approach: 35.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 31.2
SG: Putting: 3.8
SG: Tee-to-Green: 10.4
Driving Distance: 18.0
Driving Accuracy: 76.8

The event returns to Quail Hollow after a one-year stop at TPC Potomac due to the former hosting the Presidents Cup last fall. Quail Hollow has regularly hosted this tournament, though it was skipped altogether in 2020 due to the pandemic and was held at Eagle Point Golf Club in 2017 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship. As we can see from the winning profile, SG: Tee-to-Green and driving distance stand out as the key statistics here, with accuracy off the tee being of little importance. This goes in line with the length of the course -- five of the par-4s are at least 480 yards, so the shorter hitters will find it difficult to make many birdies. Players will see a lot of approaches from over 175 yards and will struggle to hit greens in regulation at a high percentage, so they will need all aspects of their game to be in shape if they hope to contend.

Quality Results at Quail Hollow

The following golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average over the last five tournaments at Quail Hollow.

Dahmen leads the way as one of just three players with a sub-70 scoring average at this venue. He has finished top-20 in all three of his appearances, including a runner-up in 2019. Dahmen, who has failed to post a top-10 this year, comes in with long odds at 150-1. However, he showed some form at the team event and his ball striking has been above average this season. Another golfer who has played well here and is in much better form is Fowler, who has quietly been one of the most consistent players going, notching nine top-20 finishes through 13 starts. He has three top-5s at Quail Hollow since 2016 and is gaining strokes in every category this season. He's getting respect from the oddsmakers at 35-1 odds to win, and he appears close to returning to the winner's circle.

Turning up in Tee-to-Green

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

The only player to appear on both lists is McIlroy, and it should be no surprise to see the three-time winner at Quail Hollow as the overwhelming betting favorite. We haven't seen McIlroy since he missed the cut at the Masters, as he withdrew from the RBC Heritage for an undisclosed reason. His game was solid prior to Augusta, and he will be a popular pick for those that haven't used him in one-and-done leagues. Meanwhile, Spieth enters as one of the hotter golfers, posting three consecutive top-5 finishes in stroke play events. The main question for him this week is that he's only played Quail Hollow twice in his career -- a T32 in 2013 and a T28 at the 2017 PGA Championship. Even so, his current form makes him worthy of being the sixth betting choice at 18-1.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Xander Schauffele (16-1)

It's surprising that Schauffele hasn't wound up on top since winning in consecutive weeks last summer -- in 16 starts since he finished top-10 over half the time. He's one of just four players gaining over a stroke per round on approach this season.

Justin Thomas (22-1)

I know Thomas hasn't had the best year, but he reportedly has dealt with a hip injury, and a couple weeks off should have done him some good after a busy stretch to start the year. Thomas should have fond memories of Quail Hollow -- where he won his first major championship -- and his putting has to round into form at some point.

Sahith Theegala (45-1)

I picked Theegala to win at Harbour Town, and once again he was in the mix, coming up a little short with a T5. He's bound to break through if he keeps putting himself into contention, which he has with seven top-10s in 17 starts. This will be his first appearance at this venue, but with his only weakness being driving accuracy, there's little reason to think he won't fit the course well.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Gary Woodland (11-2)

Coming off a top-10 win with Cameron Champ last week, I'll start with Woodland, who took fifth the last time the Tour visited Quail Hollow. Woodland has made five straight cuts, including a top-15 at Augusta. He is a good fit for the course, ranking top-10 this season in driving distance and approaches from over 200 yards.

Cam Davis (15-2)

These are generous odds for a quality ball striker when he's in form, and in Davis' last start at the RBC Heritage he ranked top-15 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach. Davis also had a top-10 at THE PLAYERS, so he is starting to stack successes again.

Ben Griffin (11-1)

Griffin boasts one of the best short games on Tour, gaining 0.75 strokes per round around the green and putting combined. He also averages over 300 yards off the tee. For someone who is 33rd in SG: Total this season, he's overdue for a top-10. He can contend against better competition, having finished T14 at Bay Hill.

Wells Fargo Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Tommy Fleetwood (-110) over Shane Lowry

In a matchup between players going in opposite directions, I'll go with the golfer in better form in Fleetwood. Lowry has just one top-10 this season and has struggled at this venue, with a best finish of T48 in four appearances. Fleetwood is coming off a T14 in 2021.

Taylor Moore (-110) over Matt Kuchar

Kuchar has certainly had a nice season, but Moore has had an even better one, winning the Valspar Championship in March and posting a pair of top-15s since. Moore is making his Quail Hollow debut but should be a good fit with above average length and a solid all-around game. Kuchar has traditionally skipped this event with his lack of distance making him a poor fit.

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