2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on January 9, 2024 5:10PM EST

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Preview

After an exciting start to the year that saw long shot Chris Kirk outlast the field and win The Sentry by a single stroke, the PGA Tour jumps from Maui to Honolulu for the 59th installment of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club.

The first full-field event of the season will be headlined by Matt Fitzpatrick and Ludvig Aberg -- the co-favorites at 16-1 odds -- and feature four of the top-25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Last year, Si Woo Kim -- at 40-1 -- outlasted Hayden Buckley by one stroke to notch his fourth PGA Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par-73, 7,596 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii Winners Over Last Five Years

SG: Off-the-Tee: 20.2
SG: Approach: 18.2
SG: Around-the-Green: 16.2
SG: Putting: 13.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 8.2
Driving Distance: 27.8
Driving Accuracy: 25.2

Waialae CC has been the host of the event since its inception in 1965, and I'm not sure it has been stretched out much since, as at just over 7,000 yard it's one of the shortest venues the Tour visits. Off the tee, players are faced with many dogleg holes and tree-lined fairways, putting more of a premium on accuracy over distance. Errant drives are penalized by reasonably long rough and poor angles, putting an emphasis on the short game. Golfers will also see longer approaches than we saw last week, so I'll be targeting those who fare well in the 150-200 yard range. I'll also be looking towards those that excel from tee to green, as players will need a well-rounded game to compete at Waialae.

Walking Tall at Waialae

The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Waialae Country Club since 2019.

It's not often we find Buckley atop one of these lists, but the third-year Tour pro has shown up in both of his trips to Hawaii, shooting 68 or better in all eight of his rounds here. The downside is that he's gone 13 consecutive starts without a top-25 finish, making him a risk-reward option at 150-1 odds. At the least, he looks like a quality low-cost DFS play. Not too far behind is the only player to beat him a year ago in Kim, as he put on a display with his irons and led the field in SG: Approach en route to the victory. He's much higher up on the betting board at 35-1 odds, and deservedly so, given his superior ball-striking capabilities.

Tee-to-Green Titans

These players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

There was a lot of talk last week about what could have been for Scottie Scheffler had he putted it even average, but even more under the radar was Glover, who led the field in approach and was fourth from tee to green. He seems to have regressed again on the greens, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in the field that has hit it better since August. Another player that's no stranger to ball-striking prowess is Conners, who checks in at 22-1 odds and is the lone player to show up on both lists. He has not missed a cut in five trips to Waialae and has been incredibly consistent, posting four straight top-15 finishes here. He will be a popular choice in one-and-done leagues as a result.

Sony Open in Hawaii: Outright Picks

Tyrrell Hatton (18-1)

Hatton sure seems overdue for a win, doesn't he? He's arguably one of the top 10 players in the world but hasn't won in nearly three years. This will be his first appearance at the Sony, and his all-around game -- he finished 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in putting last season -- should bode well for his chances of snapping the drought.

Harris English (35-1)

One stat that is thrown around often is that eight of the last 10 winners of the Sony have played The Sentry. That bodes well for English, who posted a top-15 last week, has a win in Hawaii and also has two top-5s at Waialae.

Matt Kuchar (50-1)

If you're looking for a golfer with an excellent track record in this event, look no further than Kuchar. The veteran won here in 2019 and has seven top-10s at Waialae over his last 10 appearances. He's a great value at this price.

Sony Open in Hawaii: Top-10 Wagers

Stephan Jaeger (6-1)

One thing we can essentially put in pen before the tournament begins is that Jaeger will see the weekend, as his last missed cut came at Harbour Town in April. It's hard for much to go wrong when you gain nearly a stroke per round from tee to green, a category he ranked 22nd in last season.

Alexander Bjork (9-1)

Bjork acquired his PGA Tour card for the first time via the DP World Tour, where he posted seven top-10s across an eight-tournament stretch at one point last year. He's not long off the tee but very solid everywhere else, which should make him a strong course fit.

Doug Ghim (12-1)

Bettors may overlook Ghim considering he missed the cut in both his appearances here, but those came in 2020 and 2021, and he's much better now. The 27-year old was 10th in driving accuracy last season, and on a per-round basis he gained over a half stroke from tee to green.

Sony Open in Hawaii: Head-to-Head Matchups

Alex Noren (+100) over Adam Hadwin

In a matchup between a couple players with similar games, I like Noren as the slight underdog. He had a pair of top-3 finishes over his last four fall events and finished T32 in his lone start here despite an uncharacteristic poor week on the greens. Hadwin, on the other hand, hasn't finished better than T57 in three trips to Waialae.

Andrew Putnam (+100) over Sahith Theegala

Theegala is coming off an excellent showing at Kapalua where he finished runner-up, but the Plantation Course's wide fairways suit his game much better than Waialae. In his lone appearance here two years ago, he lost over a stroke per round off the tee and on approach. Putnam is quietly coming off one of his best seasons and has two top-5 finishes here since 2019.

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