This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Memorial Tournament Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads to Columbus, Ohio, for this week's Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, hosted by Jack Nicklaus. One of two signature events left this year, the 72-player field has a 36-hole cut down to the top-50 players plus ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the tournament favorite at +280, and is the only player with single-digit odds as Rory McIlroy elected to skip the event. Last year, Scheffler (+360) picked up his fifth victory of the year by one stroke over Collin Morikawa.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 72, 7,569 yards
These are the average rankings of Memorial Tournament winners since 2020.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 8.4
- SG: Approach: 10.4
- SG: Around-the-Green: 14.4
- SG: Putting: 16.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.2
- Driving Distance: 23.2
- Driving Accuracy: 22.6
Muirfield Village has consistently been one of the toughest tests on Tour on a yearly basis, and the last two years have emphasized that with the winning score being single-digit under-par. The length of the course is certainly part of the reason, as there aren't any short par-3s and only three of the par-4s are under 450 yards. Off the tee, players are faced with fairways that average 32 yards wide (average by Tour standards) and the penal four-inch thick rough puts more of a premium on hitting fairways over distance. We can see from the statistics above that tee to green play tends to be a key metric, with the winner leading the field in the category in four of the last five years as the course tests every club in the bag. Ideally, I'm looking for good all-around players, accurate drivers, those that rank well in bogey avoidance and players that approach it well from 200+ yards.
Muirfield Masters
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average Muirfield Village since 2020.
- Scottie Scheffler: 70.6
- Collin Morikawa: 71.3
- Si Woo Kim: 71.6
- Patrick Cantlay: 71.6
- Max Homa: 71.7
Scheffler serves as the defending champion and has a great track record overall in Ohio with three consecutive top-5s. He's done it with elite iron play, gaining a whopping 2.11 strokes on approach per round across 16 career rounds. After starting three-under through two holes last week, it looked like he might be on his way to a third consecutive victory but ultimately settled for his sixth straight top-10. Going much farther down the leaderboard we find another player who has had success here in Homa (75-1 odds) with results of T22-T5-T6 over the last three years. The downside is that he's not playing nearly as well as in those prior trips, although he did turn things around with a T12 at Augusta National and has overall played much better since his early season troubles.
Top Ball-Strikers
These five players have gained the most strokes from tee to green per round over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.75
- Tommy Fleetwood: 1.73
- Daniel Berger: 1.72
- Keegan Bradley: 1.69
- Xander Schauffele: 1.43
Scheffler's dominance is stated in the stats above in which he's gaining over a full stroke over anyone else as of late. With that said, Fleetwood has also been very good in that regard which has helped lead to a pair of top-5s over his last three results. Whether or not he's ever going to win stateside remains up for debate, but that's certainly factored into him being the seventh choice on the board at 25-1. Meanwhile, I'm not sure many would believe you if you told them Bradley (50-1 odds) was fifth in the category this year, and the 38-year-old would be in the Tour Championship if it was held today. He's been held back by his worst putting season since 2021, however, he has gained strokes on the greens at Muirfield Village in four consecutive years.
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Memorial Tournament Bets: Outright Picks
Collin Morikawa (16-1)
We can see from the earlier list that only Scheffler has a better scoring average here since 2020, and Morikawa has been close to winning having lost in a playoff in 2021 on top of being one back last year. His all-around game led by driving accuracy and iron play makes him a great course fit.
Corey Conners (30-1)
Conners checks the same boxes as Morikawa when it comes to style of play, and he led the field in SG: Approach at the event in 2022. He's eighth in the FedExCup Standings despite lacking a win or a runner-up, which isn't easy to do.
J.T. Poston (60-1)
Poston's coming off his best finish in six appearances here last year and more importantly, he was in contention at Quail Hollow two weeks ago and has rattled off four top-25s in his last five starts. The three-time Tour winner is gaining shots in every strokes-gained category this year.
Memorial Tournament Bets: Placement Wagers
Jordan Spieth
Top-5 Finish: 11-2
Coming off a top-10 hit with Harry Hall last week, I'll start these wagers off with Spieth. He's cooled off a bit since he reeled off four consecutive top-20s as he looks to take advantage of a sponsor's exemption. His track record at Jack's place is pretty solid – five top-20s over his last six trips highlighted by a T5 in 2023.
Tom Hoge
Top-10 Finish: 8-1
These are some generous odds for Hoge in a small field, regardless of his mediocre track record here. He has three top-10s this year and the streaky putter is often in contention on his spike weeks on the greens. Hoge is 21st in SG: Approach this season.
Andrew Novak
Top-5 Finish: 9-1
Novak's Zurich Classic teammate Ben Griffin picked up his first individual win last week, and Novak will look to join him. I'm not going to go quite that far, but this is a guy that has two top-5s since April including one in a signature event. He's one of the hotter players in the field.
Memorial Tournament Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Ludvig Aberg (-115) over Viktor Hovland
I know Hovland is a past champion here, but he's not playing nearly as well as when he won in 2023. His around the green play has been in disarray, and that's far from ideal at a place where you're going to be scrambling often. Aberg hasn't played his best golf as of late, but I can't imagine the slump continues much longer. Give me the better driver with a better short game as a slight favorite in this matchup.
Maverick McNealy (-110) over Sam Burns
McNealy reminds me a lot of last week's winner in Griffin in that there is no weakness in his game. That's led to three top-5s this year, two of which have come in signature events. Burns has lost strokes on approach in 10 consecutive tournaments and that puts a lot of stress on his short game. A best result of T15 over five trips to the event doesn't jump off the page, either.
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