This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week, this time Dallas, for a final tune-up before the PGA Championship. As expected, the field is a bit light this week, which comes as no surprise as many elite players took the week off prior to a major. But there are certainly a few names that catch the eye this week.
As for the course, this will be the second year at Trinity Forest Golf Club. That's both a blessing and a curse as there isn't as much course history in play this week, but it might help you gain an edge if your competition isn't paying attention and relies too heavily on course history prior to last year.
This Week: AT&T Byron Nelson – Trinity Forest Golf Club, Dallas
Last Year: Aaron Wise shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Marc Leishman.
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (7-1)
Koepka is clearly the best golfer in the field this week, but the question concerning Koepka, as always, is whether he will show up at a non-major. Perhaps being this close to a major, Koepka will start to get amped up a week early. Then again, do you really want to take a guy simply on a hunch that he might be ready to play this week? Those who have waited to pull the trigger on Koepka might as well wait one more week.
Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)
If Matsuyama were in better form, perhaps
The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week, this time Dallas, for a final tune-up before the PGA Championship. As expected, the field is a bit light this week, which comes as no surprise as many elite players took the week off prior to a major. But there are certainly a few names that catch the eye this week.
As for the course, this will be the second year at Trinity Forest Golf Club. That's both a blessing and a curse as there isn't as much course history in play this week, but it might help you gain an edge if your competition isn't paying attention and relies too heavily on course history prior to last year.
This Week: AT&T Byron Nelson – Trinity Forest Golf Club, Dallas
Last Year: Aaron Wise shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Marc Leishman.
FAVORITES
Brooks Koepka (7-1)
Koepka is clearly the best golfer in the field this week, but the question concerning Koepka, as always, is whether he will show up at a non-major. Perhaps being this close to a major, Koepka will start to get amped up a week early. Then again, do you really want to take a guy simply on a hunch that he might be ready to play this week? Those who have waited to pull the trigger on Koepka might as well wait one more week.
Hideki Matsuyama (18-1)
If Matsuyama were in better form, perhaps his odds would be closer to single digits this week, but as it is, he's still not a reliable option any given week. Check that, he's been reliable enough to make cuts and, more often than not, the top 25, but he's lacked that final gear to get him over the top this season. Matsuyama has just one top-5 finish this season and could only manage a T-16 here last season. In other words, he's not a great option.
Jordan Spieth (20-1)
Spieth hasn't been among the top-3 favorites at an event for a while, and although he seems to be getting closer to his previous form, it's been a slow process, one that likely won't come to fruition this week. Spieth was trending in the proper direction leading up to the Masters and he even played fairly well that week, but he lost that momentum the following week at the RBC Heritage, where he finished T54 and we haven't seen him since.
MID-TIER GOLFERS
Aaron Wise (25-1)
It would be unwise to put too much stock into Wise's win here last year because he was atypically locked in. He posted a runner-up the week prior and took that momentum into last year's Nelson. That said, Wise seems to be trending in the right direction again, posting consecutive top-20s on the PGA Tour.
Marc Leishman (28-1)
Leishman has a nice track record at this event, including a solo second last year at the new venue. He's not trending the right way (his most recent start resulted in a T58), but the same was true last year as he entered this event off of a T63. In other words, it doesn't matter how he's playing leading up to this event, he usually finds success.
Keith Mitchell (40-1)
Only 10 golfers have odds better than 40-1 this week, which means there is a lot of value out there. I expect someone outside the favorites to win. Mitchell could be that guy as he's trending the right way with a top-10 in his most recent start and he posted a T3 here last year.
LONGSHOTS
Kevin Na (40-1)
There's a fine line between mid-tier and longshot this week. Actually, there's no line at all. During a normal week, 40-1 wouldn't qualify as mid-tier, but this week, there just aren't many options in the 20-1 or 30-1 range. That leaves Na as a longshot, even though he has a good chance at winning this week. Na finished in the top-10 here last year and has posted two top-10s in his last three starts on the PGA Tour.
Justin Harding (80-1)
This is a week where someone off the radar could easily win and Harding certainly qualifies. He hasn't had great results yet, but he's been seen hanging around at more than a few events. Most recently, he and his teammate were in the mix at the Zurich Classic with a realistic chance to win only to fade early Sunday. Harding is ranked in top 50 in the world and obviously has the skills. It's just a matter of whether he can put together four rounds on the PGA Tour.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned Pick: Marc Leishman - The picks this week are all over the place. Koepka is a big favorite, but everyone wants to save him for a major. Matsuyama was used at the Waste Management by just about everyone, and no one wants to take a chance on Spieth. Leishman is a big enough name that he'll get attention from the masses and his track record here will cinch it. You could do worse than Leishman as his prospects look pretty good this week.
Moderately Owned Pick: Aaron Wise - Wise wasn't really on the radar until last week, but now that he's there, he's looking like a solid option this week. His game has picked up lately and he's the defending champ. I'm not generally fond of taking defending champs, but there aren't a ton of great options.
Lightly Owned Pick: Keith Mitchell - Mitchell won earlier this season at the Honda Classic, but his game fell off quite a bit the last five weeks and I think a lot of people forgot about him. It would be a mistake to overlook him, as a lot of things are aligned properly for Mitchell. He'll likely draw some attention, but not as much as the golfers listed above.
Buyer Beware: Hideki Matsuyama - Matsuyama has been productive this season, he's just not been great at any point. For a normal golfer on the PGA Tour, everything would appear to be fine, but Matsuyama has set the bar much higher. There's just something missing in his game, and he doesn't seem capable of sustaining a high-level of play for four rounds. He'll be back at some point this season, just not this week.
Last Week: Phil Mickelson (MC) - $0; Season - $4,370,277
This Week: Keith Mitchell - I've been debating just how popular this pick will be this week and I've come to the conclusion that Mitchell will, for the most part, slip through the cracks, which means I'm all over him. Mitchell has run to the extremes this season; it's been all or nothing and he's trending towards one of those weeks where you get the best of him.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Brooks Koepka ($12,600)/Keith Mitchell ($10,200)/Matt Jones ($8,900)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Phil Mickelson - (MC); Streak - 0
This Week: Matt Jones - This is what happens when you miss the cut consecutive weeks. If the favorites aren't going to make the cuts, I'll go with the guy who has made nine consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour. Oh, and he finished T13 here last year. This is the second year on this course, which means there's really no such thing as a safe pick this week.
