This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T BYRON NELSON
Purse: $9.5M
Winner's Share: $1.710M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: McKinney, Texas
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Yardage: 7,414
Par: 71
2022 champion: K.H. Lee
Tournament Preview
Question: What does K.H. Lee have in common with Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer? Sorry, that's a trick question. Nothing. But check back on Sunday evening.
Lee, a 31-year-old Korean, has won the Byron Nelson the past two years and is going for a very rare three-peat, accomplished only 10 times since World War II. The most recent to turn the trick was Steve Stricker at the 2009-11 John Deere Classic. (Woods has actually done it at six different tournaments, including two four-peats, so even if Lee wins he'd still have nothing in common with Woods.)
Lee will face a daunting task, not just because winning any PGA Tour event is hard but because this non-designated tournament coming a week before the PGA Championship has some teeth, Texan Scottie Scheffler headlines the 156-man field, and he'll be joined by Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Tom Hoge, Matt Kuchar and, in his return to golf following a brief mental-health break, Aaron Wise. Jordan Spieth had been in the field, but he withdrew on Monday citing a wrist injury that sounds serious enough to put his entry into the PGA Championship in jeopardy.
There are two other players of note (at least to us): 1) 41-year-old J.J. Killeen, a long ago PGA Tour member who is the PGA Section Champion/Player of the Year and also one of the 20 club pros who just qualified for the PGA Championship at Oak Hill and 2) David Micheluzzi, the 2022-23 PGA of Australia Order of Merit winner who will make his PGA Tour debut thanks to a sponsor invite. He's No. 361 in the world rankings.
Nelson, who won six majors and more than 50 Tour events mostly in the 1930s and '40s, passed in 2006 at 94. Now, his tournament is approaching that lofty age. The inaugural 1944 Texas Victory Open was won by none other than Nelson himself, followed the next two years by Sam Snead and Ben Hogan. Through the years, other winners have been Woods, Nicklaus, Tom Watson (one of those three-peaters from 1978-80), Fred Couples, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and so many more greats of the game.
Despite Scheffler and all the others, this field actually constitutes a step down from last year's super-loaded Nelson (a full Nelson? ... Sorry!). But tournament organizers will take it. After a tumultuous few years for an event that bears the name of one of the greatest golfers and greatest gentlemen in PGA Tour history, there is finally some stability.
Just four years ago in 2019. the headliner at this tournament was none other than ... Tony Romo. He missed the cut by a mere nine strokes, though that was actually better than four other real golfers who completed 36 holes.
The Nelson is back at TPC Craig Ranch for a third straight year, after a pandemic-canceled 2020 tournament preceded by two editions at ill-fated Trinity Forest. The five-year agreement for Craig Ranch to be the host course not only brings consistency for the Tour, tournament organizers and the golfers, it does so for us, the gamers, too.
The course is a 2004 Tom Weiskopf design located about 35 miles north of Dallas. Before it became the Nelson course, its claim to fame was playing host to the 2008 and 2012 Korn Ferry Tour Championships. The winning scores were 16- and 17-under playing as a par-71. Early indications two years ago were that PGA Tour pros could chew up this track, and they were borne out when Lee took the trophy at a whopping 25-under. Yes, rain greatly softened the course, but in hot and dry condition last year Lee did himself one better, winning at 26-under to nip Spieth by a stroke.
Craig Ranch was not especially long for a par-72. But this year, obviously in an effort to curtail scoring, they took away one of the four par-5s and turned it into a par-71. The 12th hole has gone from a 547-yard par-5 to a 493-yard par-4. The three remaining par-5s are reachable in two by a good chunk of field, as the longest is 569 yards on the scorecard. No. 18 is a mere 552 yards, so a final-hole eagle is in play. Last year, Lee played the four par-5s in 16-under, with two eagles, while Spieth played them in 15-under. Three of the par-3s surpass 200 yards and six par-4s exceed 450 yards. But there are also short par-4s, including two that are semi-drivable, the 361-yard 6th and the 330-yard 14th. The course features tree-lined but fairly generous fairways leading to large bentgrass greens (averaging almost 7,000 square feet). There is prominent water all along the course, mainly in the name of Rowlett Creek, and it will come into play on 13 of the 18 holes.
As for the weather, do you like thunderstorms? They're in the forecast every day from Wednesday on. So check back closer to the lock to see whether certain tee times have an edge. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the 80s and winds will be moderate, though always with a chance to gust in Texas.
Three-peat factoids: Viktor Hovland (Mayakoba) and Sam Burns (Valspar) failed to three-peat earlier this season. Rory McIlroy (Canadian Open) and Patrick Cantlay (BMW Championship) still can do it, as can Max Homa later this year/next season at the Fortinet.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Craig Ranch
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-5 Scoring 550-600 yards
• Birdie Average/Birdie-or-Better Percentage (BOB%)
Past Champions
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
2013 - Sangmoon Bae (TPC Four Seasons)
Champion's Profile
The two tournaments at TPC Craig Ranch have been Wild West shootouts, with Lee winning at 25-under in 2021 and at 26-under last year. The golfers will be hard-pressed to get that low with the course now playing as a par-71. But how different will the tournament be? The winning score will still be in the 20s. Last year, none of the leaders were long off the tee or straight. Lee was 11th in Strokes Gained: Putting and runner-up Spieth was 39th. So how did they go so low? It was all about approach play. The top four guys on the leaderboard ranked in the top eight in SG: Approach. Golfodds.com puts the over/under on the winning score at 261.5 – 22.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Scottie Scheffler - $11,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +360)
Scheffler was priced $1,300 ahead of Spieth before the latter withdrew. Now, Scheffler is a surreal $1,800 clear of the next guy. We've never seen anything like that. But if he wins, he's worth it.
Tyrrell Hatton - $10,100 (+1200)
Hatton was exceptional again last week in tying for third at the Wells Fargo. He's having a terrific season. His path to victory got easier without Spieth in the field.
Tom Kim - $9,600 (+1600)
Kim has not been having a great season. It isn't a surprise for a sophomore to regress a bit. Yes, he is 15th in the FedExCup Standings. But that's misleading. He won the Shriners back in October and had two other top-10s in January. None since then, unless you want to count the Zurich team event (we don't). But this is a course where Kim can get well in a hurry, where driving isn't paramount and the field is not elite. Besides, he now lives in Dallas.
Tier 2 Values
K.H. Lee - $9,300 (+2200)
The first win seemed like a fluke. So did the second, if that's possible. But in the past year, Lee has actually played very well on many courses. He was eighth last week at the Wells Fargo and was top-25 at the Masters.
Matt Kuchar - $9,000 (+2500)
Kuchar finished 17th in 2021 at Craig Ranch and 12th last year -- in a far stronger field than what he'll encounter this time around. Plus, he's playing better now, with two top-10s and two top-25s in his past four starts.
Seamus Power - $8,900 (+4000)
Power was in a bit of a rut until tying for 18th at the Wells Fargo, his eighth top-25 in 16 starts this season. He's played Craig Ranch both years and apparently likes it -- 9th in 2021, 17th last year. And indications are that Power won't be highly owned, maybe only around 10-11 percent.
Taylor Montgomery - $8,700 (+4000)
Anywhere you need to go super low to win, we'll take a flyer on Montgomery (he shot 24-under and tied for fifth at the Amex). Montgomery is ranked third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Tom Hoge - $8,500 (+4000)
Hoge has been off for a few weeks, since playing in the Zurich Classic. He checks in at No. 10 in our model thanks to his exceptional approach play. He is first overall on Tour in SG: Approach. Hoge's strengths are his irons and his putter, which should work well this week. He tied for 17th here last year.
Tier 3 Values
S.H. Kim - $7,600 (+7500)
Kim missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo, only his third MC in 2023. Before that, he had top-25s at Mexico and the Valero, giving him seven top-25s on the season. Kim doesn't have good approach numbers, but he's been finding a way to get things done regardless. He's ranked 25th on Tour in SG: Putting.
Justin Suh - $7,600 (+9000)
Suh has not missed a cut since October. You read that right, although he did withdraw at Pebble in February. He lands at 25th in our model and is strong across the board and elite in putting.
Dylan Wu - $7,400 (+9000)
The 26-year-old Oregon native had made nine straight cuts in stroke play events, with top-25s in three of his past four starts. Incredibly, Wu ranks second in our model behind only Scheffler. We understand if you have to read that twice.
Jimmy Walker - $7,100 (+9000)
How good has the 44-year-old Walker been lately? Well, he's no longer in the $6,000s. (Hey, baby steps!) Seriously, he's run off four straight top-25s. He's hitting the ball far -- he's ranked 21st in driving distance for the season -- and his short game (ranked 27th SG: Around-the-Green) and putter (47th) have been awesome. Ranked in the 500s OWGR not to long ago, Walker is now 245th. He'll also play in the PGA next week.
Long-Shot Values
Pierceson Coody - $6,900 (+15000)
Honestly, we didn't realize how bad the $6,000s were until we started searching for four guys. Coody his coming off a missed cut at the Wells Fargo, just his fifth start this season. He had made the cut in three of his first four. One of those was the Valero Texas Open, and now the University of Texas alum is back in his home state.
Carson Young - $6,700 (+30000)
Young is ranked 66th on Tour in greens in regulation and 100th in SG: Putting. Down here in the $6,000s, that's not bad. And when you consider how bad the first half of his season was, those numbers look even better. Young failed to cash in nine of his first 11 events of 2022-23. Since then he's finished third at Puerto Rico, 19th at the RBC Heritage and 15th at Mexico.
Kevin Roy - $6,500 (+30000)
For the longest time, we couldn't bring ourselves to pull the trigger on Roy, even though he had terrific approach numbers. We finally did at Mexico, and he tied for 18th. That's also where Roy is ranked on Tour in SG: Approach.
Cody Gribble - $6,500 (+35000)
The Dallas native hasn't played a whole lot of PGA tour events this season, but he's still made six straight cuts (excluding the Zurich), including top-10s at Puerto Rico and the Valspar. That has Gribble bordering on the top-125 in the point standings, at 131st. He's ranked 89th in greens in regulation and 85th in SG: Tee-to-Green, both better than the Tour average.
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